AA · Expected-Move

Alcoa Corporation Common Stock (AA) expected move

The priced move, its boundaries and how it compares with past earnings moves.

$42.48

Expected move: $3.31
Expected move %: 7.8%
Lower boundary: $39.18
Upper boundary: $45.79
Median historical move: 3.9%
Method: ATM_STRADDLE_MIDPOINT

Implied versus actual earnings moveAbsolute realized movement and stored implied move share one scale. Signed actual returns and reconstruction status are preserved in the readout/table. Missing quotes are not zero.

Update time unavailable

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2023-10-18Realized move 8.5972%Implied move UnavailableSigned actual 8.5972% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdate time unavailable

Exact data table

Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
Realized move (%)	Implied move (%)	Context	Updated
8.5972%	Unavailable	Signed actual 8.5972% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
1.5819%	Unavailable	Signed actual 1.5819% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
0.2249%	Unavailable	Signed actual 0.2249% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
3.1514%	Unavailable	Signed actual 3.1514% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
4.0883%	5.8959%	Signed actual 4.0883% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
3.6873%	6.6045%	Signed actual 3.6873% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
6.9805%	7.6378%	Signed actual 6.9805% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
2.9062%	7.5465%	Signed actual 2.9062% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
12.5946%	6.903%	Signed actual 12.5946% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
1.4729%	6.8107%	Signed actual 1.4729% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
6.8029%	6.6283%	Signed actual 6.8029% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
6.1261%	7.4105%	Signed actual 6.1261% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable

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Data provenance

Figures are from published, reviewed research as of Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT. Modelled option premiums use Black-Scholes with the published at-the-money implied volatility and are labelled as modelled, not as live quotes.