AFRM · Expected-Move

Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) expected move

The priced move, its boundaries and how it compares with past earnings moves.

$74.84

Expected move: $8.83
Expected move %: 11.8%
Lower boundary: $66.02
Upper boundary: $83.67
Median historical move: 10.7%
Method: ATM_STRADDLE_MIDPOINT

Implied versus actual earnings moveAbsolute realized movement and stored implied move share one scale. Signed actual returns and reconstruction status are preserved in the readout/table. Missing quotes are not zero.

Update time unavailable

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2023-11-08: Realized move: 14.2463% Implied move: Unavailable Signed actual 14.2463% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints Update time unavailable

Exact data table

Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles

Realized move (%)	Implied move (%)	Context	Updated
14.2463%	Unavailable	Signed actual 14.2463% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
10.8899%	Unavailable	Signed actual 10.8899% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
9.5129%	Unavailable	Signed actual 9.5129% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
31.9189%	Unavailable	Signed actual 31.9189% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
4.7346%	15.5%	Signed actual 4.7346% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
21.8138%	14.9283%	Signed actual 21.8138% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
14.4674%	13.3877%	Signed actual 14.4674% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
10.5888%	13.4682%	Signed actual 10.5888% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
11.6131%	12.1994%	Signed actual 11.6131% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
4.0222%	13.1113%	Signed actual 4.0222% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
4.9733%	12.9613%	Signed actual 4.9733% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
0.3484%	10.7311%	Signed actual 0.3484% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable

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Data provenance

Figures are from published, reviewed research as of Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT. Modelled option premiums use Black-Scholes with the published at-the-money implied volatility and are labelled as modelled, not as live quotes.