AFRM earnings options: strategies, returns and entry timing

Prepare your earnings trade

T−6 entry · compare strategies

Compare returns and downside before choosing a strategy. Returns include stored modeled fill costs and commissions.

Before earnings / earlier expiration: the stored exit can be earlier when the contracts expire.

Entry dayEntry sampleSort strategies

Today is T−6 (Oct 30, 2026). Every entry day uses its own historical contracts and quotes. Latest quote date: Oct 29, 2026 (T−7).

Sep 30, 2019 – Aug 27, 2026 · percentage return on modeled maximum loss · dollar P&L per one-lot structure. Samples can differ between strategies.

Current trade examples use today's verified event and latest completed-session quotes. Changing the historical entry day does not change today's contracts. Exit controls also check whether the current legs can support that exit.

Strategy	Average return	Median return	Historical win rate	Earnings tested	Average P&L	Worst observed	Current trade example
	-6.2%23 valid ROI tests	0.1%	52.2%12 / 23 profitable	23 earnings23 valid tests	-$10.49	-50.6%-$227.60	Current trade example · T−6 Unavailable · At least one leg lacks a valid, sufficiently narrow two-sided quote for this session. Last quote session: Oct 29, 2026
	-1.0%23 valid ROI tests	4.1%	52.2%12 / 23 profitable	23 earnings23 valid tests	$0.07	-89.4%-$120.10	Current trade example · T−6 Unavailable · At least one leg lacks a valid, sufficiently narrow two-sided quote for this session. Last quote session: Oct 29, 2026
	6.3%2 valid ROI tests	6.3%	100.0%2 / 2 profitable	2 earnings2 valid tests	$6.65	4.1%$6.40	Current trade example · T−6 Sell to open 1 AFRM $75.00 callExpires Oct 30, 2026 · 0 DTE todayDelta 0.48 · Bid $0.85 / ask $1.06Volume 1,704 · Open interest 1,958 Buy to open 1 AFRM $75.00 callExpires Nov 13, 2026 · 14 DTE todayDelta 0.53 · Bid $4.55 / ask $5.35Volume 7 · Open interest 33 Estimated debit $399.50 / one structure Maximum loss before fees Model dependent Expiration breakeven Model dependent Earlier-expiration exit Oct 30, 2026 close Quote session: Oct 29, 2026 · T−7 at quote Refreshed Oct 30, 2026, 4:39 AM EDT Contracts re-evaluated for this quote session; no comparable earlier example is available. Daily preparation example for a new entry. Refreshed while earnings are 1–28 days away. Midpoint estimate before fees; verify prices with your broker. An update does not instruct existing holders to roll.
	-10.7%23 valid ROI tests	-0.4%	43.5%10 / 23 profitable	23 earnings23 valid tests	-$10.42	-92.0%-$90.20	Current trade example · T−6 Unavailable · At least one leg lacks a valid, sufficiently narrow two-sided quote for this session. Last quote session: Oct 29, 2026
Near-term expiry · nearest 0.90 delta	7.2%23 valid ROI tests	1.9%	52.2%12 / 23 profitable	23 earnings23 valid tests	$106.20	-76.3%-$816.30	Current trade example · T−6 Buy to open 1 AFRM $59.00 callExpires Nov 13, 2026 · 14 DTE todayDelta 0.90 · Bid $14.95 / ask $18.40Volume 8 · Open interest 0 Estimated debit $1,667.50 / one structure Maximum loss before fees $1,667.50 Expiration breakeven $75.68 Before-earnings exit Nov 5, 2026 close Quote session: Oct 29, 2026 · T−7 at quote Refreshed Oct 30, 2026, 4:39 AM EDT Contracts re-evaluated for this quote session; no comparable earlier example is available. Daily preparation example for a new entry. Refreshed while earnings are 1–28 days away. Midpoint estimate before fees; verify prices with your broker. An update does not instruct existing holders to roll.
	6.8%23 valid ROI tests	-0.9%	43.5%10 / 23 profitable	23 earnings23 valid tests	$74.53	-17.5%-$185.10	Current trade example · T−6 Buy to open 1 AFRM $75.00 callExpires Nov 6, 2026 · 7 DTE todayDelta 0.53 · Bid $4.00 / ask $4.80Volume 72 · Open interest 342 Buy to open 1 AFRM $75.00 putExpires Nov 6, 2026 · 7 DTE todayDelta -0.47 · Bid $4.05 / ask $4.80Volume 35 · Open interest 80 Estimated debit $882.50 / one structure Maximum loss before fees $882.50 Expiration breakevens $66.18 / $83.83 Before-earnings exit Nov 5, 2026 close Quote session: Oct 29, 2026 · T−7 at quote Refreshed Oct 30, 2026, 4:39 AM EDT Contracts re-evaluated for this quote session; no comparable earlier example is available. Daily preparation example for a new entry. Refreshed while earnings are 1–28 days away. Midpoint estimate before fees; verify prices with your broker. An update does not instruct existing holders to roll.
	19.0%23 valid ROI tests	-4.1%	39.1%9 / 23 profitable	23 earnings23 valid tests	$62.79	-39.7%-$140.10	Current trade example · T−6 Unavailable · At least one leg lacks a valid, sufficiently narrow two-sided quote for this session. Last quote session: Oct 29, 2026
	Unlimited risk · ROI unavailable	Unlimited risk · ROI unavailable	47.8%11 / 23 profitable	23 earnings23 valid tests	-$79.73	Unlimited risk · ROI unavailable-$1,482.60	Current trade example · T−6 Unavailable · Naked short strategies remain research-only. Margin and assignment requirements are not modeled. Last quote session: Oct 29, 2026
	Unlimited risk · ROI unavailable	Unlimited risk · ROI unavailable	56.5%13 / 23 profitable	23 earnings23 valid tests	-$67.99	Unlimited risk · ROI unavailable-$1,505.10	Current trade example · T−6 Unavailable · Naked short strategies remain research-only. Margin and assignment requirements are not modeled. Last quote session: Oct 29, 2026

Historical win rate counts after-cost P&L above zero. Break-even tests stay in the denominator; missing tests do not. It is a historical frequency, not a forecast probability.

Execution-cost scenario

Strategy to reviewAdditional execution cost ($ / one-lot round trip)

T−6 entry · before earnings / earlier expiration. The additional cost is a scenario, not an observed fill. Current quotes, liquidity and per-contract risk must be checked before sizing; historical averages do not create option legs or orders.

Explore all entry days · T−28 through T−1

Matrix metric

Strategy	T−5	T−4	T−3	T−2	T−1
Bear Call Spread					No later pre-earnings close
Bull Put Spread					No later pre-earnings close
Calendar	No entry trading session	No entry trading session	No entry trading session	No entry trading session	No later pre-earnings close
Iron Condor					No later pre-earnings close
Long Call DITM (0.90 Delta)					No later pre-earnings close
Long Straddle					No later pre-earnings close
Long Strangle					No later pre-earnings close
Short Straddle					No later pre-earnings close
Short Strangle					No later pre-earnings close

Each column is a separate historical trade. Missing quotes, weekends and holidays are not zero returns. Compare event counts before interpreting differences between entry days.

Return basis, costs and coverage

Long-option returns use premium at risk; defined-risk structures use modeled maximum loss. Naked shorts have no maximum-loss ROI; broker margin, early assignment and resulting stock exposure are not modeled. These percentages are not account returns or annualized returns.

Stored fills and commissions are modeled. DITM uses the existing near-term call nearest +0.90 delta, minimum +0.80 delta, earliest listed expiry after the earnings reaction and no more than 60 entry DTE.

Statistics use exact aggregates across all stored cohort outcomes; sampled trade details never supply these totals. Includes tests with failed or unknown entry-filter status; this does not establish live entry eligibility.

Recorded processing is complete for this ticker's requested scope. This does not mean every quote is available or the full stock universe is complete.

Advanced exit rule

21 recorded missing-test entries for the selected day and exit; absence of a recorded gap does not prove that a test was performed.

Daily pricing context

Cheap versus prior earnings cycles

Current vendor IV versus historical vendor IV at exact T−7; 22 events. Provider methodologies and quote times can differ. Near-term ATM IV does not describe every strategy leg.

Current ATM IV: 99.8%
Historical median IV: 136.0%
IV versus matched history: -26.6%
Implied move to option expiry: 11.8%

A cheap IV label alone does not establish a profitable trade. Daily quotes are updated after a completed market session; confirm execution prices with your broker.

Inspect IV curve and option maturities

Provider-supplied IV is used as received: historical and daily observations. Providers may use different calculation methods and quote times.

Pre-earnings IV curveStored ATM IV checkpoints and historical interquartile band. Null checkpoints are gaps, not interpolated quotes. A single quote date does not establish a daily IV curve.

Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Select observationRange startRange end

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

T−7: Current-cycle IV: 99.805% Historical median: 135.9913% Historical p25: 122.334% Historical p75: 150.6381% 22 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Event / reference markers

Earnings: 0

Exact data table

Pre-earnings IV curve · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles

Current-cycle IV (%)	Historical median (%)	Historical p25 (%)	Historical p75 (%)	Context	Updated
Unavailable	95.195%	83.5775%	121.805%	21 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. No current-cycle IV observation is stored for this checkpoint.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	91.6875%	85.86%	100.9775%	21 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. No current-cycle IV observation is stored for this checkpoint.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	101.76%	96.3375%	120.53%	8 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. No current-cycle IV observation is stored for this checkpoint.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	121.54%	93.4525%	134.1125%	3 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. No current-cycle IV observation is stored for this checkpoint.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	89.49%	77.5087%	108.97%	13 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. No current-cycle IV observation is stored for this checkpoint.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	97.6588%	90.0864%	108.5637%	18 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. No current-cycle IV observation is stored for this checkpoint.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	99.715%	91.8225%	113.8975%	21 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. No current-cycle IV observation is stored for this checkpoint.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	104.41%	91.3373%	114.09%	22 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. No current-cycle IV observation is stored for this checkpoint.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	101.415%	90.29%	118.88%	21 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. No current-cycle IV observation is stored for this checkpoint.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	114.0875%	95.105%	123.2144%	8 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. No current-cycle IV observation is stored for this checkpoint.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	118.105%	92.5475%	134.625%	3 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. No current-cycle IV observation is stored for this checkpoint.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	101.78%	95.845%	123.4175%	13 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. No current-cycle IV observation is stored for this checkpoint.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	108.7825%	96.2118%	120.135%	19 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. No current-cycle IV observation is stored for this checkpoint.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	116.6675%	102.6502%	122.13%	21 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. No current-cycle IV observation is stored for this checkpoint.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	114.3913%	98.1188%	132.9663%	22 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. No current-cycle IV observation is stored for this checkpoint.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	115.3612%	96.9756%	131.9469%	22 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. No current-cycle IV observation is stored for this checkpoint.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	128.83%	99.9306%	137.1819%	8 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. No current-cycle IV observation is stored for this checkpoint.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	133.5675%	100.585%	145.3613%	3 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. No current-cycle IV observation is stored for this checkpoint.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	121.365%	107.16%	134.1125%	15 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. No current-cycle IV observation is stored for this checkpoint.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	127.975%	111.72%	138.7862%	19 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. No current-cycle IV observation is stored for this checkpoint.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	134.0175%	119.6925%	147.8325%	21 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. No current-cycle IV observation is stored for this checkpoint.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
99.805%	135.9913%	122.334%	150.6381%	22 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	139.6462%	127.7934%	156.4144%	22 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	148.7862%	133.335%	193.8812%	8 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	152.3638%	133.3831%	171.3444%	2 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	164.5591%	141.7783%	173.4325%	11 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	185.3444%	146.8878%	188.545%	12 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	167.81%	127.825%	174.4683%	5 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet.	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Volatility term structureATM IV by stored expiration. Earnings-containing expirations are marked; missing IV stays unavailable. Expiry spacing reflects DTE, not equal calendar spacing.

Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Select observationRange startRange end

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

2026-10-30: ATM IV: 62.995% 1 DTE · ATM strike $75.00 · No stored earnings marker Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Event / reference markers

Earnings expiry 2026-11-06: 8

Exact data table

Volatility term structure · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles

ATM IV (%)	Context	Updated
62.995%	1 DTE · ATM strike $75.00 · No stored earnings marker	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
99.805%	8 DTE · ATM strike $75.00 · Contains earnings	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
82.93%	15 DTE · ATM strike $75.00 · No stored earnings marker	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
76.44%	22 DTE · ATM strike $75.00 · No stored earnings marker	Updated Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Prepare your trade

Current pricing and risk

Review the contracts, capital at risk and intended exit before choosing an entry.

Strategy to prepareMaximum acceptable loss ($, optional)Round-trip fees and execution allowance ($ / one lot)Intended exit

Quotes as of Oct 29, 2026 · daily preparation data. Confirm executable prices with your broker. The fee allowance is your assumption.

Net entry / one lot: $71.50 credit
Maximum loss with allowance: $328.50
Budget ceiling: Not calculated
Breakevens before allowance: $83.72

Side / quantity	Option	Expiry / DTE	Modeled price per share
SELL × 1	CALL 83	2026-11-06 · 8 days at quote	$1.5750
BUY × 1	CALL 87	2026-11-06 · 8 days at quote	$0.8600

Liquidity: acceptable. Missing margin, early assignment and exercise costs are not included. Historical returns above are separate from this expiration payoff.

Inspect expiration payoff

My upcoming earnings

AFRM · Affirm Holdings, Inc.

T−6 entry · compare strategies

Execution-cost scenario

Cheap versus prior earnings cycles

Current pricing and risk