Prepare before earnings
BABA · Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary share
Reports in 27 days · Nov 24, 2026 · Before open (BMO) · $100.24
Quote as of Oct 27, 2026 · Entry today: T−27 · New York calendar dates
Prepare your earnings trade
T−27 entry · compare strategies
Compare returns and downside before choosing a strategy. Returns include stored modeled fill costs and commissions.
Before earnings / earlier expiration: the stored exit can be earlier when the contracts expire.
Today is T−27 (Oct 28, 2026). Every entry day uses its own historical contracts and quotes. Latest quote date: Oct 27, 2026 (T−28).
Aug 27, 2014 – Aug 20, 2026 · percentage return on modeled maximum loss · dollar P&L per one-lot structure. Samples can differ between strategies.
| Strategy | Average return | Median return | Historical win rate | Earnings tested | Average P&L | Worst observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -11.9%40 valid ROI tests | 7.6% | 57.5%23 / 40 profitable | 40 earnings40 valid tests | -$39.83 | -95.4%-$598.60 | |
| -3.7%40 valid ROI tests | 11.6% | 60.0%24 / 40 profitable | 40 earnings40 valid tests | -$30.89 | -93.2%-$490.60 | |
| 27.8%40 valid ROI tests | 31.1% | 60.0%24 / 40 profitable | 40 earnings40 valid tests | $44.50 | -80.4%-$185.10 | |
| -17.3%40 valid ROI tests | -17.2% | 30.0%12 / 40 profitable | 40 earnings40 valid tests | -$70.71 | -84.3%-$402.70 | |
| Near-term expiry · nearest 0.90 delta | 16.5%40 valid ROI tests | -7.1% | 47.5%19 / 40 profitable | 40 earnings40 valid tests | $62.76 | -95.0%-$2,248.80 |
| 26.0%40 valid ROI tests | 4.9% | 55.0%22 / 40 profitable | 40 earnings40 valid tests | $190.18 | -55.7%-$1,622.60 | |
| 57.2%40 valid ROI tests | 9.8% | 55.0%22 / 40 profitable | 40 earnings40 valid tests | $129.89 | -90.0%-$767.10 | |
| Unlimited risk · ROI unavailable | Unlimited risk · ROI unavailable | 42.5%17 / 40 profitable | 40 earnings40 valid tests | -$195.38 | Unlimited risk · ROI unavailable-$2,853.60 | |
| Unlimited risk · ROI unavailable | Unlimited risk · ROI unavailable | 45.0%18 / 40 profitable | 40 earnings40 valid tests | -$135.09 | Unlimited risk · ROI unavailable-$2,593.10 |
Historical win rate counts after-cost P&L above zero. Break-even tests stay in the denominator; missing tests do not. It is a historical frequency, not a forecast probability.
Execution-cost scenario
T−27 entry · before earnings / earlier expiration. The additional cost is a scenario, not an observed fill. Current quotes, liquidity and per-contract risk must be checked before sizing; historical averages do not create option legs or orders.
Explore all entry days · T−28 through T−1
| Strategy | T−28 | T−27 | T−26 | T−25 | T−24 | T−23 | T−22 | T−21 | T−20 | T−19 | T−18 | T−17 | T−16 | T−15 | T−14 | T−13 | T−12 | T−11 | T−10 | T−9 | T−8 | T−7 | T−6 | T−5 | T−4 | T−3 | T−2 | T−1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | No later pre-earnings close | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bull Put Spread | No later pre-earnings close | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Calendar | No entry trading session | No entry trading session | No entry trading session | No entry trading session | No later pre-earnings close | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Iron Condor | No later pre-earnings close | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Long Call DITM (0.90 Delta) | No later pre-earnings close | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Long Straddle | No later pre-earnings close | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Long Strangle | No later pre-earnings close | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Short Straddle | No later pre-earnings close | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Short Strangle | No later pre-earnings close |
Each column is a separate historical trade. Missing quotes, weekends and holidays are not zero returns. Compare event counts before interpreting differences between entry days.
Return basis, costs and coverage
Long-option returns use premium at risk; defined-risk structures use modeled maximum loss. Naked shorts have no maximum-loss ROI; broker margin, early assignment and resulting stock exposure are not modeled. These percentages are not account returns or annualized returns.
Stored fills and commissions are modeled. DITM uses the existing near-term call nearest +0.90 delta, minimum +0.80 delta, earliest listed expiry after the earnings reaction and no more than 60 entry DTE.
Statistics use exact aggregates across all stored cohort outcomes; sampled trade details never supply these totals. Includes tests with failed or unknown entry-filter status; this does not establish live entry eligibility.
Recorded processing is complete for this ticker's requested scope. This does not mean every quote is available or the full stock universe is complete.
8 recorded missing-test entries for the selected day and exit; absence of a recorded gap does not prove that a test was performed.
Daily pricing context
Expensive versus prior earnings cycles
Current vendor IV versus historical vendor IV at exact T−28; 47 events. Provider methodologies and quote times can differ. Near-term ATM IV does not describe every strategy leg.
- Current ATM IV
- 42.3% Quote Oct 27, 2026
- Historical median IV
- 38.8% 47 events · T−28
- IV versus matched history
- 9.1% Near-term ATM, same earnings offset
- Implied move to option expiry
- 9.8% ATM straddle estimate; not a strategy return
A cheap IV label alone does not establish a profitable trade. Daily quotes are updated after a completed market session; confirm execution prices with your broker.
Inspect IV curve and option maturities
Provider-supplied IV is used as received: historical and daily observations. Providers may use different calculation methods and quote times.
Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Event / reference markers
- Earnings: 0
Exact data table
Pre-earnings IV curve · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Current-cycle IV (%) | Historical median (%) | Historical p25 (%) | Historical p75 (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42.345% | 38.81% | 33.4112% | 44.765% | 47 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 37.245% | 32.5019% | 45.3837% | 40 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 37.095% | 33.63% | 45.8281% | 12 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 38.205% | 34.84% | 44.415% | 13 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 40.2388% | 35.2569% | 45.9181% | 34 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 40.1525% | 33.4519% | 46.5657% | 40 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 40.715% | 34.2313% | 46.8886% | 47 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 40.8375% | 34.5369% | 47.3719% | 48 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 39.5425% | 35.3231% | 47.0066% | 42 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 42.0025% | 35.45% | 44.56% | 13 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 43.1225% | 35.7625% | 45.3225% | 13 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 43.3975% | 38.54% | 49.5831% | 34 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 44.1175% | 39.805% | 48.7525% | 41 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 44.0325% | 37.955% | 49.6738% | 47 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 44.4352% | 40.8181% | 51.3506% | 48 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 46.4163% | 41.8181% | 54.4444% | 42 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 46.6975% | 43.99% | 51.4025% | 13 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 51.1425% | 45.8% | 53.15% | 13 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 55.2075% | 45.9325% | 59.97% | 33 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 54.895% | 48.1225% | 59.1688% | 40 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 55.76% | 51.1775% | 59.4325% | 47 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 58.385% | 51.3756% | 61.1687% | 48 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 58.9842% | 53.7794% | 65.075% | 42 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 59.0475% | 53.92% | 62.0075% | 13 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 64.8175% | 58.3375% | 71.0775% | 13 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 73.4723% | 65.4963% | 82.93% | 32 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 80.945% | 74.88% | 93.6525% | 41 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | 94.2325% | 83.1581% | 110.4269% | 48 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. This checkpoint is later than the latest quote date; current-cycle IV has not been observed yet. | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT |
Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Event / reference markers
- Earnings expiry 2026-11-27: 31
Exact data table
Volatility term structure · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | ATM IV (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41.6% | 24 DTE · ATM strike $100.00 · No stored earnings marker | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 42.345% | 31 DTE · ATM strike $100.00 · Contains earnings | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 44.025% | 38 DTE · ATM strike $100.00 · No stored earnings marker | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 42.36% | 52 DTE · ATM strike $100.00 · No stored earnings marker | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT |
Prepare your trade
Current pricing and risk
Review the contracts, capital at risk and intended exit before choosing an entry.
Quotes as of Oct 27, 2026 · daily preparation data. Confirm executable prices with your broker. The fee allowance is your assumption.
- Net entry / one lot
- $88.00 credit
- Maximum loss with allowance
- $412.00 Defined expiration loss plus your allowance
- Budget ceiling
- Not calculated A maximum bound, not a recommended allocation
- Breakevens before allowance
- $110.88
| Side / quantity | Option | Expiry / DTE | Modeled price per share |
|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | CALL 110 | 2026-11-27 · 31 days at quote | $1.8350 |
| BUY × 1 | CALL 115 | 2026-11-27 · 31 days at quote | $0.9550 |
Liquidity: acceptable. Missing margin, early assignment and exercise costs are not included. Historical returns above are separate from this expiration payoff.