FLY · Expected-Move

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) expected move

The priced move, its boundaries and how it compares with past earnings moves.

$19.87

Expected move: $3.65
Expected move %: 18.4%
Lower boundary: $16.22
Upper boundary: $23.52
Median historical move: 10.4%
Method: ATM_STRADDLE_MIDPOINT

Implied versus actual earnings moveAbsolute realized movement and stored implied move share one scale. Signed actual returns and reconstruction status are preserved in the readout/table. Missing quotes are not zero.

Update time unavailable

Select observation

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

2025-09-22: Realized move: 15.3069% Implied move: Unavailable Signed actual 15.3069% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints Update time unavailable

Exact data table

Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles

Realized move (%)	Implied move (%)	Context	Updated
15.3069%	Unavailable	Signed actual 15.3069% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
16.9853%	Unavailable	Signed actual 16.9853% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
5.5439%	Unavailable	Signed actual 5.5439% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
0.6829%	Unavailable	Signed actual 0.6829% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable

Next steps

Calculator

Run the numbers

Open the calculator that uses the same formulas as this page.

Open tool →Guide

Understand the strategy

Learn the risk, the payoff and the common mistakes.

Read guide →

Data provenance

Figures are from published, reviewed research as of Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT. Modelled option premiums use Black-Scholes with the published at-the-money implied volatility and are labelled as modelled, not as live quotes.