MPC · Expected-Move

Marathon Petroleum Corporation Common Stock (MPC) expected move

The priced move, its boundaries and how it compares with past earnings moves.

$442.26

Expected move: $63.25
Expected move %: 14.3%
Lower boundary: $379.01
Upper boundary: $505.51
Median historical move: 4.3%
Method: ATM_STRADDLE_MIDPOINT

Implied versus actual earnings moveAbsolute realized movement and stored implied move share one scale. Signed actual returns and reconstruction status are preserved in the readout/table. Missing quotes are not zero.

Update time unavailable

Select observation

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

2023-10-31Realized move 2.9892%Implied move UnavailableSigned actual 2.9892% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdate time unavailable

Exact data table

Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
Realized move (%)	Implied move (%)	Context	Updated
2.9892%	Unavailable	Signed actual 2.9892% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
6.0884%	Unavailable	Signed actual 6.0884% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
9.3711%	Unavailable	Signed actual 9.3711% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
5.4551%	Unavailable	Signed actual 5.4551% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
3.1875%	Unavailable	Signed actual 3.1875% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
6.7415%	Unavailable	Signed actual 6.7415% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
0.8511%	Unavailable	Signed actual 0.8511% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
0.5716%	Unavailable	Signed actual 0.5716% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
6.1341%	Unavailable	Signed actual 6.1341% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
6.0313%	Unavailable	Signed actual 6.0313% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
3.1559%	Unavailable	Signed actual 3.1559% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
1.8174%	Unavailable	Signed actual 1.8174% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable

Next steps

Calculator

Run the numbers

Open the calculator that uses the same formulas as this page.

Open tool →Guide

Understand the strategy

Learn the risk, the payoff and the common mistakes.

Read guide →

Data provenance

Figures are from published, reviewed research as of Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT. Modelled option premiums use Black-Scholes with the published at-the-money implied volatility and are labelled as modelled, not as live quotes.