Options WhaleEarnings volatility research

MSFT · Expected-Move

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) expected move

The priced move, its boundaries and how it compares with past earnings moves.

$529.76
Expected move
$39.40
Expected move %
7.4%
Lower boundary
$490.36
Upper boundary
$569.16
Median historical move
3.9%
Method
ATM_STRADDLE_MIDPOINT
Implied versus actual earnings moveAbsolute realized movement and stored implied move share one scale. Signed actual returns and reconstruction status are preserved in the readout/table. Missing quotes are not zero.

Update time unavailable

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

2023-10-24Realized move 3.0678%Implied move UnavailableSigned actual 3.0678% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdate time unavailable
Exact data table
Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
ObservationRealized move (%)Implied move (%)ContextUpdated
3.0678%UnavailableSigned actual 3.0678% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdate time unavailable
2.6946%UnavailableSigned actual 2.6946% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdate time unavailable
1.8244%UnavailableSigned actual 1.8244% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdate time unavailable
1.0806%UnavailableSigned actual 1.0806% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdate time unavailable
6.0528%UnavailableSigned actual 6.0528% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdate time unavailable
6.1809%UnavailableSigned actual 6.1809% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdate time unavailable
7.6254%UnavailableSigned actual 7.6254% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdate time unavailable
3.9475%UnavailableSigned actual 3.9475% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdate time unavailable
2.9157%UnavailableSigned actual 2.9157% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdate time unavailable
9.9932%UnavailableSigned actual 9.9932% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdate time unavailable
3.9297%UnavailableSigned actual 3.9297% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdate time unavailable
15.5067%UnavailableSigned actual 15.5067% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdate time unavailable

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Data provenance

Figures are from published, reviewed research as of Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT. Modelled option premiums use Black-Scholes with the published at-the-money implied volatility and are labelled as modelled, not as live quotes.