MSTR · Expected-Move

Strategy Inc (MSTR) expected move

The priced move, its boundaries and how it compares with past earnings moves.

$153.37

Expected move: $19.03
Expected move %: 12.4%
Lower boundary: $134.35
Upper boundary: $172.40
Median historical move: 4.4%
Method: ATM_STRADDLE_MIDPOINT

Implied versus actual earnings moveAbsolute realized movement and stored implied move share one scale. Signed actual returns and reconstruction status are preserved in the readout/table. Missing quotes are not zero.

Update time unavailable

Select observation

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

2023-11-01Realized move 6.3187%Implied move UnavailableSigned actual 6.3187% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdate time unavailable

Exact data table

Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
Realized move (%)	Implied move (%)	Context	Updated
6.3187%	Unavailable	Signed actual 6.3187% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
2.01%	Unavailable	Signed actual 2.01% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
17.6292%	Unavailable	Signed actual 17.6292% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
4.2214%	Unavailable	Signed actual 4.2214% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
1.1362%	Unavailable	Signed actual 1.1362% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
3.3383%	Unavailable	Signed actual 3.3383% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
3.3464%	Unavailable	Signed actual 3.3464% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
8.7667%	Unavailable	Signed actual 8.7667% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
5.8687%	Unavailable	Signed actual 5.8687% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
26.1146%	Unavailable	Signed actual 26.1146% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
0.0428%	Unavailable	Signed actual 0.0428% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
4.5631%	Unavailable	Signed actual 4.5631% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable

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Data provenance

Figures are from published, reviewed research as of Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT. Modelled option premiums use Black-Scholes with the published at-the-money implied volatility and are labelled as modelled, not as live quotes.