SHOP · Expected-Move

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) expected move

The priced move, its boundaries and how it compares with past earnings moves.

$166.03

Expected move: $25.25
Expected move %: 15.2%
Lower boundary: $140.78
Upper boundary: $191.28
Median historical move: 16.3%
Method: ATM_STRADDLE_MIDPOINT

Implied versus actual earnings moveAbsolute realized movement and stored implied move share one scale. Signed actual returns and reconstruction status are preserved in the readout/table. Missing quotes are not zero.

Update time unavailable

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Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

2023-11-02Realized move 22.3611%Implied move UnavailableSigned actual 22.3611% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdate time unavailable

Exact data table

Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
Realized move (%)	Implied move (%)	Context	Updated
22.3611%	Unavailable	Signed actual 22.3611% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
13.3977%	Unavailable	Signed actual 13.3977% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
18.5853%	Unavailable	Signed actual 18.5853% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
17.8347%	Unavailable	Signed actual 17.8347% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
21.0357%	Unavailable	Signed actual 21.0357% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
3.0776%	Unavailable	Signed actual 3.0776% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
0.5291%	Unavailable	Signed actual 0.5291% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
21.9685%	Unavailable	Signed actual 21.9685% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
6.9388%	Unavailable	Signed actual 6.9388% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
6.7039%	Unavailable	Signed actual 6.7039% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
15.6174%	Unavailable	Signed actual 15.6174% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
16.983%	Unavailable	Signed actual 16.983% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable

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Data provenance

Figures are from published, reviewed research as of Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT. Modelled option premiums use Black-Scholes with the published at-the-money implied volatility and are labelled as modelled, not as live quotes.