UPST · Expected-Move

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) expected move

The priced move, its boundaries and how it compares with past earnings moves.

$24.84

Expected move: $3.04
Expected move %: 12.2%
Lower boundary: $21.80
Upper boundary: $27.88
Median historical move: 16.9%
Method: ATM_STRADDLE_MIDPOINT

Implied versus actual earnings moveAbsolute realized movement and stored implied move share one scale. Signed actual returns and reconstruction status are preserved in the readout/table. Missing quotes are not zero.

Update time unavailable

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2023-11-07: Realized move: 27.3036% Implied move: Unavailable Signed actual 27.3036% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints Update time unavailable

Exact data table

Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles

Realized move (%)	Implied move (%)	Context	Updated
27.3036%	Unavailable	Signed actual 27.3036% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
19.6233%	Unavailable	Signed actual 19.6233% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
5.5578%	Unavailable	Signed actual 5.5578% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
39.5057%	Unavailable	Signed actual 39.5057% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
46.0249%	Unavailable	Signed actual 46.0249% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
31.8236%	Unavailable	Signed actual 31.8236% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
9.6498%	Unavailable	Signed actual 9.6498% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
18.7364%	Unavailable	Signed actual 18.7364% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
9.7102%	Unavailable	Signed actual 9.7102% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
15.0411%	Unavailable	Signed actual 15.0411% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
7.9243%	Unavailable	Signed actual 7.9243% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable
0.3958%	Unavailable	Signed actual 0.3958% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Update time unavailable

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Data provenance

Figures are from published, reviewed research as of Oct 29, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT. Modelled option premiums use Black-Scholes with the published at-the-money implied volatility and are labelled as modelled, not as live quotes.