Earnings volatility research
AUR · Aurora Innovation, Inc.
No verified earnings events are stored for AUR in this environment.
Observed earnings moves8History through Oct 7, 2026
Mean absolute actual move10.7%8 observed events · not a forecast
Actual exceeded priced move25.0%2 of 8 paired observations
Options evidence coverageUnavailableNo stored options snapshot
Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts
No reviewed research is available for AUR yet
Coverage and research availability are separate datasets.
Next verified eventNot stored yet
Days to next eventUnavailable
Research window7–35 days before earnings, plus T-1
Why no researchNo upcoming verified earnings date is stored for this ticker yet
Calendar sourceVerified earnings calendar
Until the provider verifies the next earnings date, there is nothing to evaluate. This page reports the gap rather than guessing a date.
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for AUR
Observed outcomes from 8 earnings events (Oct 30, 2024 – Jul 29, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Updated Oct 7, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
2024-10-30Realized move 21.762%Implied move 19.1751%Signed actual -21.762% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 7, 2026
Exact data table
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.762% | 19.1751% | Signed actual -21.762% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 | |
| 46.0465% | 18.2143% | Signed actual 46.0465% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 | |
| 6.0645% | 13.6799% | Signed actual -6.0645% · Reconstructed · 8 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 | |
| 0.3454% | 12.1441% | Signed actual 0.3454% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 | |
| 1.9231% | 12.8083% | Signed actual -1.9231% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 | |
| 3.211% | 12.8924% | Signed actual -3.211% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 | |
| 1.7882% | 11.4855% | Signed actual -1.7882% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 | |
| 4.3478% | 11.6747% | Signed actual 4.3478% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 |
Exact-contract strategy reconstruction
| Structure | Reconstructed runs | Profitable | Average return on max loss | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calendar | 8 | 1 / 8 | -136.4% | 15.4% | -577.0% |
| Long Straddle | 8 | 1 / 8 | -26.5% | 71.8% | -63.0% |
| Long Strangle | 8 | 1 / 8 | -46.3% | 145.1% | -100.4% |
| Iron Condor | 6 | 0 / 6 | -47.3% | -29.1% | -63.2% |
| Bull Put Spread | 5 | 1 / 5 | -12.4% | 6.9% | -28.0% |
| Bear Call Spread | 4 | 0 / 4 | -19.8% | -14.9% | -23.8% |
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Bear Call Spread
Did not clear entry filters- Modeled entry credit
- $3.75
- Payoff max loss
- -$46.25
- Payoff max profit
- $3.75
- Modeled exit P&L
- -$10.10-23.8% on stored risk basis $42.50
Entry Jul 15, 2026 → Exit Jul 28, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.
Update time unavailable
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
$3.01Expiration P/L $3.75Update time unavailable
Event / reference markers
- Entry spot: $6.02
- Expiry breakeven $7.0375: $7.0375
- sell call strike $7.00: $7.00
- buy call strike $7.50: $7.50
Exact data table
| Observation | Expiration P/L (USD) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| $3.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $3.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $3.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $3.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| $3.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $3.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $3.75 | Entry spot reference | Update time unavailable | |
| $3.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| $3.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $3.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $0.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$0.59 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$6.61 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$12.63 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$18.65 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$24.67 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$30.69 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$36.71 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$42.73 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$46.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$46.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$46.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$46.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| -$46.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$46.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$46.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| -$46.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$46.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$46.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$46.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$46.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$46.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$46.25 | Update time unavailable |
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | AUR260731C00007000 | $7.00 call · 2026-07-31 | $0.16 | $0.14 |
| BUY × 1 | AUR260731C00007500 | $7.50 call · 2026-07-31 | $0.13 | $0.03 |
Breakevens: $7.04. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.
Stored costs: $0.65 / contract / side · slippage 25.0% of spread / fillExample methodology and limitations
9 quote gaps · Record hist_AUR_7a04e7c79d3469e9 · Historical methodology
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