Earnings volatility research
BTG · B2Gold Corp Common shares (Canada)
Next verified earnings in 26 days · Nov 4, 2026 · After close (AMC).
Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts
No reviewed research is available for BTG yet
Coverage and research availability are separate datasets.
A snapshot may be in progress, awaiting review, or blocked by data-quality gates. Published research appears here once it clears review.
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for BTG
Observed outcomes from 8 earnings events (Nov 6, 2024 – Aug 6, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Updated Oct 7, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Exact data table
BTG · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0858% | 17.5305% | Signed actual -4.0858% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 | |
| 5.6416% | 5.7034% | Signed actual 5.6416% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 | |
| 2.2642% | 11.7925% | Signed actual -2.2642% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 | |
| 6.5274% | 7.3138% | Signed actual -6.5274% · Reconstructed · 8 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 | |
| 5.7056% | 6.25% | Signed actual -5.7056% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 | |
| 4.8331% | 8.0952% | Signed actual -4.8331% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 | |
| 10.4917% | 6.1384% | Signed actual 10.4917% · Reconstructed · 8 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 | |
| 22.9829% | 9.7561% | Signed actual 22.9829% · Reconstructed · 8 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 |
Compare entry timing
Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.
Includes trades that failed entry filters; this measures structures, not a history of qualified recommendations. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.
Average return on stored maximum-loss basis · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.
| Strategy | T−35 | T−28 | T−21 | T−14 | T−7 | T−3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | |
| Calendar | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | |
| Iron Condor | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | |
| Long Straddle | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | |
| Long Strangle | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested |
Stored entry tests: T−14. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. Entry offsets are calendar days; weekend entries use a prior observed session, shown in each trade. Older records infer the actual offset from dates.
T−14 entry details
| Strategy | Events | Average | Median | Worst | Best | Failed / unknown eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | 1 | -19.0% | -19.0% | -19.0% | -19.0% | 1 / 0 |
| Calendar | 3 | -116.5% | -120.8% | -160.8% | -68.0% | 3 / 0 |
| Iron Condor | 1 | -38.0% | -38.0% | -38.0% | -38.0% | 1 / 0 |
| Long Straddle | 8 | -26.0% | -27.4% | -63.0% | 35.6% | 8 / 0 |
| Long Strangle | 7 | -65.9% | -75.3% | -117.3% | 21.6% | 7 / 0 |
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Calendar
Did not clear entry filters- Modeled entry debit
- $11.25
- Payoff max loss
- $7.50
- Payoff max profit
- Model dependent
- Modeled exit P&L
- -$5.10-68.0% on stored risk basis $7.50
Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.
Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.
Entry filter failures: historical sample insufficient.
Entry Jul 23, 2026 → Exit Jul 30, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Different expirations require time and volatility assumptions.
Update time unavailable
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Event / reference markers
- Snapshot spot: $3.84
- SELL CALL strike $4.00: $4.00
- BUY CALL strike $4.00: $4.00
Exact data table
Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Expiration P/L (USD) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| -$6.48 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| -$6.23 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| -$5.92 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| -$5.56 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| -$5.14 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| -$4.65 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| -$4.08 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| -$3.43 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| -$2.69 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| -$1.86 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| -$0.93 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| $0.10 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| $1.24 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| $2.49 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| $3.86 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| $5.35 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| $6.95 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| $8.68 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| $10.52 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| $12.49 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| $11.30 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| $9.65 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| $8.11 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| $6.68 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| $5.35 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| $4.13 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| $3.00 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| $1.97 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| $1.03 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| $0.17 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable | |
| -$0.61 | No additional context stored | Update time unavailable |
Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | BTG260731C00004000 | $4.00 call · 2026-07-31 | $0.06 | $0.04 |
| BUY × 1 | BTG260814C00004000 | $4.00 call · 2026-08-14 | $0.18 | $0.13 |
23 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_BTG_9ab4b5870e332240 · Historical methodology
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