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CIFRCipher Digital Inc.
Next verified event unavailable · Earnings history
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for CIFR
Observed outcomes from 8 earnings events (Oct 31, 2024 – Aug 4, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Updated Oct 7, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
2024-10-31Realized move 6.6288%Implied move 13.2576%Signed actual -6.6288% · Reconstructed · 8 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 7, 2026
Exact data table
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6288% | 13.2576% | Signed actual -6.6288% · Reconstructed · 8 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 | |
| 5.6373% | Unavailable | Signed actual -5.6373% · Reconstructed · 6 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 | |
| 2.0134% | 12.5839% | Signed actual 2.0134% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 | |
| 6.5259% | 8.3493% | Signed actual -6.5259% · Reconstructed · 8 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 | |
| 22.0375% | Unavailable | Signed actual 22.0375% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 | |
| 12.4836% | 14.8489% | Signed actual 12.4836% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 | |
| 23.5327% | 12.8843% | Signed actual 23.5327% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 | |
| 15.6457% | 15.9768% | Signed actual -15.6457% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026 |
Exact-contract strategy reconstruction
| Structure | Reconstructed runs | Profitable | Average return on max loss | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calendar | 8 | 3 / 8 | -36.6% | 52.2% | -167.8% |
| Long Straddle | 7 | 0 / 7 | -34.6% | -11.1% | -44.2% |
| Long Strangle | 7 | 0 / 7 | -78.3% | -46.7% | -95.4% |
| Bull Put Spread | 5 | 0 / 5 | -51.5% | -4.6% | -86.3% |
| Bear Call Spread | 4 | 2 / 4 | 14.1% | 134.2% | -44.9% |
| Iron Condor | 4 | 1 / 4 | -43.4% | 18.7% | -146.2% |
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Bear Call Spread
Did not clear entry filters- Modeled entry debit
- $9.25
- Payoff max loss
- -$109.25
- Payoff max profit
- -$9.25
- Modeled exit P&L
- -$40.85-43.2% on stored risk basis $94.50
Entry Jul 21, 2026 → Exit Aug 3, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.
Update time unavailable
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
$11.445Expiration P/L -$9.25Update time unavailable
Event / reference markers
- Entry spot: $22.89
- sell call strike $29.50: $29.50
- buy call strike $30.50: $30.50
Exact data table
| Observation | Expiration P/L (USD) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| -$9.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| -$9.25 | Entry spot reference | Update time unavailable | |
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| -$12.06 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$34.95 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$57.84 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$80.73 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$103.62 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$109.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| -$109.25 | Update time unavailable |
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | CIFR260807C00029500 | $29.50 call · 2026-08-07 | $0.78 | $0.45 |
| BUY × 1 | CIFR260807C00030500 | $30.50 call · 2026-08-07 | $0.88 | $0.16 |
Breakevens: None. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.
Stored costs: $0.65 / contract / side · slippage 25.0% of spread / fillExample methodology and limitations
13 quote gaps · Record hist_CIFR_07bc1509f63526f1 · Historical methodology