Earnings volatility research · Nov 3, 2026

CLOV · Clover Health Investments, Corp.

$4.68 · Earnings in 26 days — Session unknown · Updated after Oct 5, 2026 market close

Awaiting review

Observed earnings moves7History through Oct 8, 2026

Mean absolute actual move12.8%7 observed events · not a forecast

Actual exceeded priced move66.7%4 of 6 paired observations

Options evidence coverage64Valid contracts · snapshot Oct 5, 2026

Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts

Setup summary

A snapshot exists but has not cleared research review for publication.

At snapshot: T-29

VolatilityUnknown

Event IV deviationUnavailablevs T-28 median

Implied moveOverpriced

Current implied move±16.7%

Median actual move12.6%n=11

Term structureBack Rich

LiquidityAcceptable

Primary setupNo setupAwaiting review

Secondary candidatesNone

Sample qualityLowFewer than 4 reconstructed events.

Why this matters

Event-relative volatility comparison is unavailable for this snapshot. The ATM straddle implies a ±16.7% move — 1.33x the historical median actual move.

No current candidate is available for this ticker.

Unknown event volatility; acceptable liquidity. Historical evidence quality is low (fewer than 4 reconstructed events.) and the sample covers exact-contract reconstructions, not live published recommendations.

Current implied volatility versus prior earnings cycles

No matched historical checkpoint is available for this snapshot.

Pre-earnings IV curveStored ATM IV checkpoints and historical interquartile band. Null checkpoints are gaps, not interpolated quotes. A single current snapshot is not a current-cycle curve.

Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Select observationRange startRange end

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

T−35Current IV UnavailableHistorical median UnavailableHistorical p25 UnavailableHistorical p75 Unavailable0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Event / reference markers

Earnings: 0

Exact data table

Pre-earnings IV curve · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
Current IV (%)	Historical median (%)	Historical p25 (%)	Historical p75 (%)	Context	Updated
Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.	Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
70.64%	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.	Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.	Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.	Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.	Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.	Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.	Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.	Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Expected move and historical earnings behavior

ATM_STRADDLE_MIDPOINT · event expiration Nov 6, 2026 · Oct 5, 2026 market close

Overpriced

Implied versus actual earnings moveAbsolute realized movement and stored implied move share one scale. Signed actual returns and reconstruction status are preserved in the readout/table. Missing quotes are not zero.

Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Select observation

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

2023-11-06Realized move 18.1858%Implied move UnavailableSigned actual 18.1858% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Exact data table

Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
Realized move (%)	Implied move (%)	Context	Updated
18.1858%	Unavailable	Signed actual 18.1858% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
4.9902%	Unavailable	Signed actual 4.9902% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
17.6486%	Unavailable	Signed actual 17.6486% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
2.6596%	Unavailable	Signed actual 2.6596% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
15.6322%	Unavailable	Signed actual 15.6322% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
6.8681%	Unavailable	Signed actual 6.8681% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
12.5373%	Unavailable	Signed actual 12.5373% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
20.7018%	Unavailable	Signed actual 20.7018% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
15.767%	Unavailable	Signed actual 15.767% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
5.2239%	Unavailable	Signed actual 5.2239% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
12.5604%	Unavailable	Signed actual 12.5604% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Implied move±16.7%

Implied dollar move$0.78

Lower / upper boundary$3.90 / $5.46

Historical median absolute12.6%

Events exceeding implied0 / 0

Move richness1.33x

Historical sample11 events · Low quality

Implied observations come from the earnings expiration at the stored snapshot; realized moves use the absolute post-earnings session return. Missing implied quotes remain gaps — they are never treated as zero moves, and exceedance counts use only paired observations.

Volatility term structure

The earnings expiration trades 0.3 volatility points above the next expiration. Classification: Back Rich.

Volatility term structureATM IV by stored expiration. Earnings-containing expirations are marked; missing IV stays unavailable. Expiry spacing reflects DTE, not equal calendar spacing.

Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Select observationRange startRange end

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2026-10-30ATM IV 63.835%25 DTE · ATM strike $4.50 · No stored earnings markerUpdated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Event / reference markers

Earnings expiry 2026-11-06: 32

Exact data table

Volatility term structure · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
ATM IV (%)	Context	Updated
63.835%	25 DTE · ATM strike $4.50 · No stored earnings marker	Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
70.64%	32 DTE · ATM strike $4.50 · Contains earnings	Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
72.965%	39 DTE · ATM strike $4.50 · No stored earnings marker	Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
70.32%	46 DTE · ATM strike $4.50 · No stored earnings marker	Updated Oct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Eligible candidates

Only structures that passed every applicable gate are shown.

0 eligible

No current candidate is available for this ticker. Verified event facts and observed history remain below.

No attractive setup detected

The event was evaluated and no candidate cleared every filter. That is a valid research outcome.

Directional confirmation is missing for directional structures.

Comparable CLOV earnings events

Rebuilt from observed quotes after each event — reconstruction evidence, not proof of a live historical publication.

Scroll horizontally to see every column.

Earnings date	Actual move	Implied move	Reconstruction basis	Strategy outcomes
Nov 6, 2023	-18.2%	Unavailable	Same Ticker Reconstruction	—
Mar 12, 2024	5.0%	Unavailable	Same Ticker Reconstruction	—
May 7, 2024	17.6%	Unavailable	Same Ticker Reconstruction	—
Aug 5, 2024	-2.7%	Unavailable	Same Ticker Reconstruction	—
Nov 6, 2024	-15.6%	Unavailable	Same Ticker Reconstruction	—
Mar 10, 2025	-6.9%	Unavailable	Same Ticker Reconstruction	—
May 6, 2025	12.5%	Unavailable	Same Ticker Reconstruction	—
Aug 5, 2025	-20.7%	Unavailable	Same Ticker Reconstruction	—
Nov 4, 2025	-15.8%	Unavailable	Same Ticker Reconstruction	—
May 6, 2026	5.2%	Unavailable	Same Ticker Reconstruction	—
Aug 5, 2026	12.6%	Unavailable	Same Ticker Reconstruction	—

How this was generated

Inputs, assumptions, and versions that produced the numbers above.

Research methodology details

Expand for timestamps, sample sizes, models, and provenance

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Market data timestampOct 5, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Snapshot dateOct 5, 2026

Historical sample11 events · Low quality

Event checkpointsT-35, T-28, T-21, T-14, T-7, T-3, T-1, T+1

Slippage model25% of quoted spread per fill

Commission$0.65 per contract per side

Missing contractsNever imputed

Dataset statusVALID

PublishableYes

Hard errors0

Warnings0

Checks passed10/10

Market dataLicensed market data

Earnings datesVerified public earnings calendar

Engine versionsbacktest 0.2.0 · features 0.3.0 · selector 0.2.0 · classifier 0.2.0 · llm_prompt 0.1.0 · configuration 0.2.0

Research IDres_CLOV_2026-10-05_f27b26bda8ee

Risk record

Earnings dates can move after this snapshot was captured.
Bid/ask midpoint fills may not be achievable in live trading.
Historical reconstruction uses current methodology and is not proof of a live historical publication.

Research methodology and definitions

Primary candidate construction

Exact legs, exposure and payoff for the primary eligible structure.

No current candidate is available for this ticker. Browse available research.

Past events · reconstructed

Historical reconstruction for CLOV

Observed outcomes from 7 earnings events (Nov 6, 2024 – Aug 5, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.

Historical · past

Realized move versus what was implied

Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.

CLOV · Implied versus actual earnings moveAbsolute realized movement and stored implied move share one scale. Signed actual returns and reconstruction status are preserved in the readout/table. Missing quotes are not zero.

Updated Oct 8, 2026

Select observation

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

2024-11-06Realized move 15.6322%Implied move 15.2778%Signed actual -15.6322% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 8, 2026

Exact data table

CLOV · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
Realized move (%)	Implied move (%)	Context	Updated
15.6322%	15.2778%	Signed actual -15.6322% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 8, 2026
6.8681%	Unavailable	Signed actual -6.8681% · Reconstructed · 6 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 8, 2026
12.5373%	13.4328%	Signed actual 12.5373% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 8, 2026
20.7018%	15.7986%	Signed actual -20.7018% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 8, 2026
15.767%	12.7717%	Signed actual -15.767% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 8, 2026
5.2239%	10.3448%	Signed actual 5.2239% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 8, 2026
12.5604%	11.2412%	Signed actual 12.5604% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 8, 2026

Exact-contract strategy reconstruction

Structure	Reconstructed runs	Profitable	Average return on max loss	Best	Worst
Long Straddle	7	1 / 7	-33.3%	7.8%	-73.2%
Calendar	6	2 / 6	-39.6%	36.0%	-224.3%
Long Strangle	6	0 / 6	-66.4%	-18.0%	-112.3%

Historical examples

Example trades, payoff and risk

Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.

Choose an example (19 stored runs)

Calendar

Did not clear entry filters

Modeled entry debit: $24.00
Payoff max loss: $20.00
Payoff max profit: Model dependent
Modeled exit P&L: -$2.60-13.0% on stored risk basis $20.00

Entry Jul 22, 2026 → Exit Jul 30, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Different expirations require time and volatility assumptions.

Strategy payoffStored expiration payoff; IV does not reshape intrinsic value. Method: CALENDAR_AT_SHORT_EXPIRATION. Maximum profit unbounded / unavailable · Maximum loss $20.00. Existing publication calculations are preserved; no missing values are reconstructed here.

Update time unavailable

Select observationRange startRange end

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$3.70Expiration P/L -$14.85Update time unavailable

Event / reference markers

Snapshot spot: $4.67
SELL CALL strike $4.50: $4.50
BUY CALL strike $4.50: $4.50

Exact data table

Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
Expiration P/L (USD)	Context	Updated
-$14.85	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
-$13.75	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
-$12.47	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
-$11.02	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
-$9.39	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
-$7.56	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
-$5.53	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
-$3.30	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
-$0.86	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
$1.80	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
$4.67	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
$7.75	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
$11.04	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
$10.41	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
$7.68	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
$5.14	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
$2.78	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
$0.61	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
-$1.38	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
-$3.21	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
-$4.89	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
-$6.41	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
-$7.80	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
-$9.06	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
-$10.20	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
-$11.23	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
-$12.15	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
-$12.98	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
-$13.73	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
-$14.39	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable
-$14.98	No additional context stored	Update time unavailable

Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share
Side / quantity	Contract	Strike / expiry	Entry fill	Exit fill
SELL × 1	CLOV260731C00004500	$4.50 call · 2026-07-31	$0.30	$0.01
BUY × 1	CLOV260814C00004500	$4.50 call · 2026-08-14	$0.54	$0.25

Stored costs: $0.65 / contract / side · slippage 25.0% of spread / fillExample methodology and limitations

24 quote gaps · Record hist_CLOV_d754a1ec43fa64c4 · Historical methodology

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