Earnings volatility research · Oct 28, 2026
CMG · Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Common Stock
$30.77 · Earnings in 20 days — After close (AMC) · Updated after Oct 7, 2026 market close
Awaiting review
Observed earnings moves8History through Oct 8, 2026
Mean absolute actual move7.6%8 observed events · not a forecast
Actual exceeded priced move50.0%4 of 8 paired observations
Options evidence coverage89Valid contracts · snapshot Oct 7, 2026
Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts
Setup summary
A snapshot exists but has not cleared research review for publication.
VolatilityUnknown
Event IV deviationUnavailablevs T-21 median
Implied moveOverpriced
Current implied move±10.6%
Median actual move3.8%n=12
Term structureEvent Spike
LiquidityAcceptable
Primary setupNo setupAwaiting review
Secondary candidatesNone
Sample qualityLowFewer than 4 reconstructed events.
Why this matters
Event-relative volatility comparison is unavailable for this snapshot. The ATM straddle implies a ±10.6% move — 2.82x the historical median actual move.
No current candidate is available for this ticker.
Unknown event volatility; acceptable liquidity. Historical evidence quality is low (fewer than 4 reconstructed events.) and the sample covers exact-contract reconstructions, not live published recommendations.
Current implied volatility versus prior earnings cycles
No matched historical checkpoint is available for this snapshot.
Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
T−35Current IV UnavailableHistorical median UnavailableHistorical p25 UnavailableHistorical p75 Unavailable0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Event / reference markers
- Earnings: 0
Exact data table
| Observation | Current IV (%) | Historical median (%) | Historical p25 (%) | Historical p75 (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 52.76% | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT |
Expected move and historical earnings behavior
ATM_STRADDLE_MIDPOINT · event expiration Oct 30, 2026 · Oct 7, 2026 market close
Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
2023-10-26Realized move 4.4905%Implied move UnavailableSigned actual 4.4905% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Exact data table
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.4905% | Unavailable | Signed actual 4.4905% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 0.6836% | Unavailable | Signed actual 0.6836% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 6.3282% | Unavailable | Signed actual 6.3282% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 1.854% | Unavailable | Signed actual 1.854% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 7.8691% | Unavailable | Signed actual 7.8691% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 2.5585% | Unavailable | Signed actual 2.5585% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 1.5997% | Unavailable | Signed actual 1.5997% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 13.3384% | Unavailable | Signed actual 13.3384% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 18.1841% | Unavailable | Signed actual 18.1841% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 1.9403% | Unavailable | Signed actual 1.9403% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 3.0312% | Unavailable | Signed actual 3.0312% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 12.5% | Unavailable | Signed actual 12.5% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT |
Implied move±10.6%
Implied dollar move$3.27
Lower / upper boundary$27.51 / $34.04
Historical median absolute3.8%
Events exceeding implied0 / 0
Move richness2.82x
Historical sample12 events · Low quality
Implied observations come from the earnings expiration at the stored snapshot; realized moves use the absolute post-earnings session return. Missing implied quotes remain gaps — they are never treated as zero moves, and exceedance counts use only paired observations.
Volatility term structure
The earnings expiration trades 4.9 volatility points above the next expiration. Classification: Event Spike.
Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
2026-10-23ATM IV 41.75%16 DTE · ATM strike $31.00 · No stored earnings markerUpdated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Event / reference markers
- Earnings expiry 2026-10-30: 23
Exact data table
| Observation | ATM IV (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41.75% | 16 DTE · ATM strike $31.00 · No stored earnings marker | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 52.76% | 23 DTE · ATM strike $31.00 · Contains earnings | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 51.1% | 30 DTE · ATM strike $31.00 · No stored earnings marker | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 47.81% | 37 DTE · ATM strike $31.00 · No stored earnings marker | Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT |
Eligible candidates
Only structures that passed every applicable gate are shown.
No current candidate is available for this ticker. Verified event facts and observed history remain below.
No attractive setup detected
The event was evaluated and no candidate cleared every filter. That is a valid research outcome.
- Directional confirmation is missing for directional structures.
Comparable CMG earnings events
Rebuilt from observed quotes after each event — reconstruction evidence, not proof of a live historical publication.
Scroll horizontally to see every column.
| Earnings date | Actual move | Implied move | Reconstruction basis | Strategy outcomes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2023 | 4.5% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 0.7% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
| Apr 24, 2024 | 6.3% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
| Jul 24, 2024 | -1.9% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
| Oct 29, 2024 | -7.9% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
| Feb 4, 2025 | -2.6% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
| Apr 23, 2025 | 1.6% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
| Jul 23, 2025 | -13.3% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
| Oct 29, 2025 | -18.2% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1.9% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 3.0% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 12.5% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
How this was generated
Inputs, assumptions, and versions that produced the numbers above.
Research methodology details
Expand for timestamps, sample sizes, models, and provenance
Expand
Research methodology details
Expand for timestamps, sample sizes, models, and provenance
Market data timestampOct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Snapshot dateOct 7, 2026
Historical sample12 events · Low quality
Event checkpointsT-35, T-28, T-21, T-14, T-7, T-3, T-1, T+1
Slippage model25% of quoted spread per fill
Commission$0.65 per contract per side
Missing contractsNever imputed
Dataset statusVALID
PublishableYes
Hard errors0
Warnings0
Checks passed10/10
Market dataLicensed market data
Earnings datesVerified public earnings calendar
Engine versionsbacktest 0.2.0 · features 0.3.0 · selector 0.2.0 · classifier 0.2.0 · llm_prompt 0.1.0 · configuration 0.2.0
Research IDres_CMG_2026-10-07_11d28c75bfaa
Risk record
- Earnings dates can move after this snapshot was captured.
- Bid/ask midpoint fills may not be achievable in live trading.
- Historical reconstruction uses current methodology and is not proof of a live historical publication.
Research methodology and definitions
Primary candidate construction
Exact legs, exposure and payoff for the primary eligible structure.
No current candidate is available for this ticker. Browse available research.
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for CMG
Observed outcomes from 8 earnings events (Oct 29, 2024 – Jul 29, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Updated Oct 8, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
2024-10-29Realized move 7.8691%Implied move 7.632%Signed actual -7.8691% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 8, 2026
Exact data table
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8691% | 7.632% | Signed actual -7.8691% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 2.5585% | 7.6251% | Signed actual -2.5585% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 1.5997% | 8.1423% | Signed actual 1.5997% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 13.3384% | 7.0065% | Signed actual -13.3384% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 18.1841% | 8.8674% | Signed actual -18.1841% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 1.9403% | 9.7247% | Signed actual 1.9403% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 3.0312% | 9.1269% | Signed actual 3.0312% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 12.5% | 8.8183% | Signed actual 12.5% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 |
Exact-contract strategy reconstruction
| Structure | Reconstructed runs | Profitable | Average return on max loss | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | 8 | 3 / 8 | -2.8% | 13.7% | -17.1% |
| Bull Put Spread | 8 | 2 / 8 | -17.4% | 7.6% | -40.3% |
| Calendar | 8 | 2 / 8 | -9.8% | 20.6% | -32.3% |
| Iron Condor | 8 | 0 / 8 | -23.0% | -5.0% | -50.8% |
| Long Straddle | 8 | 1 / 8 | -13.0% | 1.2% | -32.6% |
| Long Strangle | 8 | 0 / 8 | -29.9% | -2.4% | -48.9% |
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Bear Call Spread
Did not clear entry filters- Modeled entry credit
- $16.50
- Payoff max loss
- -$183.50
- Payoff max profit
- $16.50
- Modeled exit P&L
- -$2.10-1.2% on stored risk basis $175.00
Entry Jul 15, 2026 → Exit Jul 28, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.
Update time unavailable
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
$17.315Expiration P/L $16.50Update time unavailable
Event / reference markers
- Entry spot: $34.63
- Expiry breakeven $38.165: $38.165
- sell call strike $38.00: $38.00
- buy call strike $40.00: $40.00
Exact data table
| Observation | Expiration P/L (USD) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| $16.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| -$27.43 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | CMG260731C00038000 | $38.00 call · 2026-07-31 | $0.51 | $0.22 |
| BUY × 1 | CMG260731C00040000 | $40.00 call · 2026-07-31 | $0.34 | $0.06 |
Breakevens: $38.17. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.
Stored costs: $0.65 / contract / side · slippage 25.0% of spread / fillExample methodology and limitations
Record hist_CMG_fb9e53b01c6a3b5c · Historical methodology
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