Earnings volatility research · Oct 27, 2026

CNC · Centene Corporation Common Stock

$64.99 · Earnings in 19 days — Before open (BMO) · Updated after Oct 7, 2026 market close

Awaiting review

Observed earnings moves8History through Oct 8, 2026

Mean absolute actual move6.6%8 observed events · not a forecast

Actual exceeded priced move50.0%4 of 8 paired observations

Options evidence coverage37Valid contracts · snapshot Oct 7, 2026

Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts

Setup summary

A snapshot exists but has not cleared research review for publication.

At snapshot: T-20

VolatilityUnknown

Event IV deviationUnavailablevs T-21 median

Implied moveUnknown

Current implied moveUnavailable

Median actual move4.8%n=12

Term structureEvent Spike

LiquidityAcceptable

Primary setupNo setupAwaiting review

Secondary candidatesNone

Sample qualityLowFewer than 4 reconstructed events.

Why this matters

Event-relative volatility comparison is unavailable for this snapshot.

No current candidate is available for this ticker.

Unknown event volatility; acceptable liquidity. Historical evidence quality is low (fewer than 4 reconstructed events.) and the sample covers exact-contract reconstructions, not live published recommendations.

Current implied volatility versus prior earnings cycles

No matched historical checkpoint is available for this snapshot.

Pre-earnings IV curveStored ATM IV checkpoints and historical interquartile band. Null checkpoints are gaps, not interpolated quotes. A single current snapshot is not a current-cycle curve.

Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Select observationRange startRange end

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

T−35Current IV UnavailableHistorical median UnavailableHistorical p25 UnavailableHistorical p75 Unavailable0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Event / reference markers

Earnings: 0

Exact data table

Pre-earnings IV curve · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
Current IV (%)	Historical median (%)	Historical p25 (%)	Historical p75 (%)	Context	Updated
Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
55.955%	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	Unavailable	0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Expected move and historical earnings behavior

ATM_STRADDLE_MIDPOINT · event expiration Unavailable · no quote timestamp

Unknown

Implied versus actual earnings moveAbsolute realized movement and stored implied move share one scale. Signed actual returns and reconstruction status are preserved in the readout/table. Missing quotes are not zero.

Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Select observation

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

2023-10-24Realized move 1.6511%Implied move UnavailableSigned actual 1.6511% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Exact data table

Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
Realized move (%)	Implied move (%)	Context	Updated
1.6511%	Unavailable	Signed actual 1.6511% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
1.1476%	Unavailable	Signed actual 1.1476% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
2.2199%	Unavailable	Signed actual 2.2199% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
8.457%	Unavailable	Signed actual 8.457% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
4.2194%	Unavailable	Signed actual 4.2194% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
5.4459%	Unavailable	Signed actual 5.4459% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
6.317%	Unavailable	Signed actual 6.317% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
6.0912%	Unavailable	Signed actual 6.0912% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
12.5038%	Unavailable	Signed actual 12.5038% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
3.6573%	Unavailable	Signed actual 3.6573% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
13.954%	Unavailable	Signed actual 13.954% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
0.2653%	Unavailable	Signed actual 0.2653% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Implied moveUnavailable

Implied dollar moveUnavailable

Lower / upper boundary— / —

Historical median absolute4.8%

Events exceeding implied0 / 0

Move richnessUnavailable

Historical sample12 events · Low quality

Implied observations come from the earnings expiration at the stored snapshot; realized moves use the absolute post-earnings session return. Missing implied quotes remain gaps — they are never treated as zero moves, and exceedance counts use only paired observations.

Volatility term structure

The earnings expiration trades 2.6 volatility points above the next expiration. Classification: Event Spike.

Volatility term structureATM IV by stored expiration. Earnings-containing expirations are marked; missing IV stays unavailable. Expiry spacing reflects DTE, not equal calendar spacing.

Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Select observationRange startRange end

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

2026-10-23ATM IV 46.66%16 DTE · ATM strike $64.00 · No stored earnings markerUpdated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Event / reference markers

Earnings expiry 2026-10-30: 23

Exact data table

Volatility term structure · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
ATM IV (%)	Context	Updated
46.66%	16 DTE · ATM strike $64.00 · No stored earnings marker	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
55.955%	23 DTE · ATM strike $65.00 · Contains earnings	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
53.845%	30 DTE · ATM strike $65.00 · No stored earnings marker	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
53.31%	37 DTE · ATM strike $62.00 · No stored earnings marker	Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Eligible candidates

Only structures that passed every applicable gate are shown.

0 eligible

No current candidate is available for this ticker. Verified event facts and observed history remain below.

No attractive setup detected

The event was evaluated and no candidate cleared every filter. That is a valid research outcome.

Directional confirmation is missing for directional structures.

Comparable CNC earnings events

Rebuilt from observed quotes after each event — reconstruction evidence, not proof of a live historical publication.

Scroll horizontally to see every column.

Earnings date	Actual move	Implied move	Reconstruction basis	Strategy outcomes
Oct 24, 2023	-1.7%	Unavailable	Same Ticker Reconstruction	—
Feb 6, 2024	1.1%	Unavailable	Same Ticker Reconstruction	—
Apr 26, 2024	-2.2%	Unavailable	Same Ticker Reconstruction	—
Jul 26, 2024	8.5%	Unavailable	Same Ticker Reconstruction	—
Oct 25, 2024	4.2%	Unavailable	Same Ticker Reconstruction	—
Feb 4, 2025	-5.4%	Unavailable	Same Ticker Reconstruction	—
Apr 25, 2025	-6.3%	Unavailable	Same Ticker Reconstruction	—
Jul 25, 2025	6.1%	Unavailable	Same Ticker Reconstruction	—
Oct 29, 2025	12.5%	Unavailable	Same Ticker Reconstruction	—
Feb 6, 2026	-3.7%	Unavailable	Same Ticker Reconstruction	—
Apr 28, 2026	14.0%	Unavailable	Same Ticker Reconstruction	—
Jul 28, 2026	-0.3%	Unavailable	Same Ticker Reconstruction	—

How this was generated

Inputs, assumptions, and versions that produced the numbers above.

Research methodology details

Expand for timestamps, sample sizes, models, and provenance

Expand

Market data timestampOct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Snapshot dateOct 7, 2026

Historical sample12 events · Low quality

Event checkpointsT-35, T-28, T-21, T-14, T-7, T-3, T-1, T+1

Slippage model25% of quoted spread per fill

Commission$0.65 per contract per side

Missing contractsNever imputed

Dataset statusVALID

PublishableYes

Hard errors0

Warnings0

Checks passed10/10

Market dataLicensed market data

Earnings datesVerified public earnings calendar

Engine versionsbacktest 0.2.0 · features 0.3.0 · selector 0.2.0 · classifier 0.2.0 · llm_prompt 0.1.0 · configuration 0.2.0

Research IDres_CNC_2026-10-07_cfd6960c32ed

Risk record

Earnings dates can move after this snapshot was captured.
Bid/ask midpoint fills may not be achievable in live trading.
Historical reconstruction uses current methodology and is not proof of a live historical publication.

Research methodology and definitions

Primary candidate construction

Exact legs, exposure and payoff for the primary eligible structure.

No current candidate is available for this ticker. Browse available research.

Past events · reconstructed

Historical reconstruction for CNC

Observed outcomes from 8 earnings events (Oct 25, 2024 – Jul 28, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.

Historical · past

Realized move versus what was implied

Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.

CNC · Implied versus actual earnings moveAbsolute realized movement and stored implied move share one scale. Signed actual returns and reconstruction status are preserved in the readout/table. Missing quotes are not zero.

Updated Oct 8, 2026

Select observation

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

2024-10-25Realized move 4.2194%Implied move 6.8971%Signed actual 4.2194% · Reconstructed · 6 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 8, 2026

Exact data table

CNC · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
Realized move (%)	Implied move (%)	Context	Updated
4.2194%	6.8971%	Signed actual 4.2194% · Reconstructed · 6 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 8, 2026
5.4459%	3.7411%	Signed actual -5.4459% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 8, 2026
6.317%	5.9678%	Signed actual -6.317% · Reconstructed · 6 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 8, 2026
6.0912%	8.4081%	Signed actual 6.0912% · Reconstructed · 6 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 8, 2026
12.5038%	11.2986%	Signed actual 12.5038% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 8, 2026
3.6573%	14.5792%	Signed actual -3.6573% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 8, 2026
13.954%	10.2529%	Signed actual 13.954% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 8, 2026
0.2653%	9.7612%	Signed actual -0.2653% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints	Updated Oct 8, 2026

Exact-contract strategy reconstruction

Structure	Reconstructed runs	Profitable	Average return on max loss	Best	Worst
Bull Put Spread	6	0 / 6	-43.0%	-9.7%	-108.6%
Iron Condor	6	0 / 6	-71.0%	-7.6%	-120.6%
Long Strangle	6	3 / 6	48.1%	194.6%	-72.4%
Bear Call Spread	5	3 / 5	-16.1%	15.4%	-86.5%
Long Straddle	5	2 / 5	4.1%	62.2%	-51.2%
Calendar	4	2 / 4	-19.8%	46.8%	-92.4%

Historical examples

Example trades, payoff and risk

Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.

Choose an example (32 stored runs)

Bull Put Spread

Did not clear entry filters

Modeled entry credit: $34.50
Payoff max loss: -$265.50
Payoff max profit: $34.50
Modeled exit P&L: -$160.60-67.8% on stored risk basis $237.00

Entry Jul 14, 2026 → Exit Jul 27, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.

Strategy payoffHistorical example · expiration payoff (before commissions). Entry spot $68.72. Expiry maximum profit $34.50 · Expiry maximum loss -$265.50 · Expiry breakevens $62.655. Total position fees $0.00 deducted once. Intrinsic at the common expiration; IV/time never alters expiry P/L. No early exercise, assignment, slippage, dividends or taxes modeled.

Update time unavailable

Select observationRange startRange end

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

$34.36Expiration P/L -$265.50Update time unavailable

Event / reference markers

Entry spot: $68.72
Expiry breakeven $62.655: $62.655
sell put strike $63.00: $63.00
buy put strike $60.00: $60.00

Exact data table

Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
Expiration P/L (USD)	Context	Updated
-$265.50		Update time unavailable
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-$218.14		Update time unavailable
-$149.42		Update time unavailable
-$80.70		Update time unavailable
-$11.98		Update time unavailable
$0.00		Update time unavailable
$34.50		Update time unavailable
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$34.50	Entry spot reference	Update time unavailable
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Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share
Side / quantity	Contract	Strike / expiry	Entry fill	Exit fill
SELL × 1	CNC260731P00063000	$63.00 put · 2026-07-31	$1.42	$3.07
BUY × 1	CNC260731P00060000	$60.00 put · 2026-07-31	$1.07	$1.15

Breakevens: $62.66. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.

Stored costs: $0.65 / contract / side · slippage 25.0% of spread / fillExample methodology and limitations

11 quote gaps · Record hist_CNC_314af69fe6202c32 · Historical methodology

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