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COINCoinbase Global, Inc.
Next verified event unavailable · Earnings history
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for COIN
Observed outcomes from 8 earnings events (Oct 30, 2024 – Jul 30, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Updated Oct 8, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
2024-10-30Realized move 15.3443%Implied move 9.0253%Signed actual -15.3443% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 8, 2026
Exact data table
COIN · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.3443% | 9.0253% | Signed actual -15.3443% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 7.9836% | 8.3303% | Signed actual -7.9836% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 3.477% | 7.644% | Signed actual -3.477% · Reconstructed · 8 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 16.6958% | 7.0666% | Signed actual -16.6958% · Reconstructed · 8 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 4.6483% | 8.1036% | Signed actual 4.6483% · Reconstructed · 8 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 16.4647% | 8.7631% | Signed actual 16.4647% · Reconstructed · 8 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 4.2496% | 8.4613% | Signed actual 4.2496% · Reconstructed · 8 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 10.5881% | 9.1667% | Signed actual -10.5881% · Reconstructed · 8 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 |
Exact-contract strategy reconstruction
| Structure | Reconstructed runs | Profitable | Average return on max loss | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | 8 | 6 / 8 | 3.6% | 11.6% | -10.1% |
| Bull Put Spread | 8 | 4 / 8 | -15.9% | 24.0% | -128.4% |
| Calendar | 8 | 6 / 8 | -2.3% | 32.1% | -86.5% |
| Iron Condor | 8 | 4 / 8 | -15.0% | 30.5% | -144.6% |
| Long Strangle | 8 | 1 / 8 | -33.0% | 235.7% | -88.7% |
| Long Straddle | 7 | 1 / 7 | -14.2% | 105.0% | -38.5% |
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Bear Call Spread
Did not clear entry filters- Modeled entry debit
- $4.75
- Payoff max loss
- -$754.75
- Payoff max profit
- -$4.75
- Modeled exit P&L
- -$68.60-10.1% on stored risk basis $680.50
Entry Jul 16, 2026 → Exit Jul 29, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.
Update time unavailable
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
$80.245Expiration P/L -$4.75Update time unavailable
Event / reference markers
- Entry spot: $160.49
- sell call strike $182.50: $182.50
- buy call strike $190.00: $190.00
Exact data table
Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Expiration P/L (USD) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Entry spot reference | Update time unavailable | |
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$4.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$50.61 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$211.10 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$371.59 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$532.08 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$692.57 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$754.75 | Update time unavailable |
Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | COIN260731C00182500 | $182.50 call · 2026-07-31 | $3.15 | $1.25 |
| BUY × 1 | COIN260731C00190000 | $190.00 call · 2026-07-31 | $3.19 | $0.64 |
Breakevens: None. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.
Stored costs: $0.65 / contract / side · slippage 25.0% of spread / fillExample methodology and limitations
1 quote gaps · Record hist_COIN_adc3750e63834bac · Historical methodology