Earnings volatility research
CRM · Salesforce, Inc. Common Stock
Next verified earnings in 54 days · Dec 2, 2026 · After close (AMC).
Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts
No reviewed research is available for CRM yet
Coverage and research availability are separate datasets.
Options Whale generates research once an event enters the 7–35 day pre-earnings window. Nothing is fabricated to fill this page before then.
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for CRM
Observed outcomes from 8 earnings events (Dec 3, 2024 – Aug 26, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Updated Oct 8, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Exact data table
CRM · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.9948% | 7.1524% | Signed actual 10.9948% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 4.0445% | 9.1948% | Signed actual -4.0445% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 3.3004% | 7.54% | Signed actual -3.3004% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 4.8509% | 7.7118% | Signed actual -4.8509% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 3.6612% | 7.9353% | Signed actual 3.6612% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 4.0261% | 9.6268% | Signed actual 4.0261% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 0.7549% | 8.5157% | Signed actual -0.7549% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 22.5805% | 7.5964% | Signed actual 22.5805% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 |
Compare entry timing
Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.
Includes trades that failed entry filters; this measures structures, not a history of qualified recommendations. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.
Average return on stored maximum-loss basis · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.
| Strategy | T−35 | T−28 | T−21 | T−14 | T−7 | T−3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | |
| Bull Put Spread | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | |
| Calendar | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | |
| Iron Condor | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | |
| Long Straddle | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | |
| Long Strangle | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested | Not tested |
Stored entry tests: T−14. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. Entry offsets are calendar days; weekend entries use a prior observed session, shown in each trade. Older records infer the actual offset from dates.
T−14 entry details
| Strategy | Events | Average | Median | Worst | Best | Failed / unknown eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | 8 | -4.9% | -7.2% | -19.9% | 10.8% | 8 / 0 |
| Bull Put Spread | 8 | 2.6% | 8.7% | -29.8% | 23.0% | 8 / 0 |
| Calendar | 7 | -4.6% | 9.9% | -83.9% | 30.4% | 7 / 0 |
| Iron Condor | 8 | -1.9% | 1.1% | -23.8% | 7.4% | 8 / 0 |
| Long Straddle | 8 | -7.7% | -9.2% | -17.9% | 8.2% | 8 / 0 |
| Long Strangle | 8 | -18.9% | -23.9% | -39.4% | 18.6% | 8 / 0 |
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Bear Call Spread
Did not clear entry filters- Modeled entry credit
- $107.50
- Payoff max loss
- -$642.50
- Payoff max profit
- $107.50
- Modeled exit P&L
- -$118.60-18.8% on stored risk basis $630.00
Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.
Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.
Entry filter failures: directional confirmation missing, historical sample insufficient.
Entry Aug 12, 2026 → Exit Aug 25, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.
Update time unavailable
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Event / reference markers
- Entry spot: $193.32
- Expiry breakeven $213.575: $213.575
- sell call strike $212.50: $212.50
- buy call strike $220.00: $220.00
Exact data table
Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Expiration P/L (USD) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $107.50 | Entry spot reference | Update time unavailable | |
| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $107.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $92.30 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $0.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$101.02 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$294.34 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$487.66 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$642.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$642.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$642.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$642.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| -$642.50 | Update time unavailable |
Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | CRM260828C00212500 | $212.50 call · 2026-08-28 | $2.99 | $5.08 |
| BUY × 1 | CRM260828C00220000 | $220.00 call · 2026-08-28 | $1.91 | $2.84 |
Breakevens: $213.58. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.
1 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_CRM_50b2991420629dd6 · Historical methodology
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