Earnings volatility research
CSX · CSX Corporation
No verified earnings events are stored for CSX in this environment.
Observed earnings moves8History through Oct 8, 2026
Mean absolute actual move3.5%8 observed events · not a forecast
Actual exceeded priced move37.5%3 of 8 paired observations
Options evidence coverageUnavailableNo stored options snapshot
Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts
No reviewed research is available for CSX yet
Coverage and research availability are separate datasets.
Next verified eventNot stored yet
Days to next eventUnavailable
Research window7–35 days before earnings, plus T-1
Why no researchNo upcoming verified earnings date is stored for this ticker yet
Calendar sourceVerified earnings calendar
Until the provider verifies the next earnings date, there is nothing to evaluate. This page reports the gap rather than guessing a date.
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for CSX
Observed outcomes from 8 earnings events (Oct 16, 2024 – Jul 22, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Updated Oct 8, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
2024-10-16Realized move 6.71%Implied move 3.8028%Signed actual -6.71% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 8, 2026
Exact data table
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.71% | 3.8028% | Signed actual -6.71% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 2.9108% | 3.6101% | Signed actual -2.9108% · Reconstructed · 6 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 1.2067% | 4.0323% | Signed actual 1.2067% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 0.0858% | 3.1223% | Signed actual 0.0858% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 1.6947% | 3.9321% | Signed actual 1.6947% · Reconstructed · 8 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 2.4035% | 5.3381% | Signed actual 2.4035% · Reconstructed · 5 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 6.9477% | 6.629% | Signed actual 6.9477% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 5.768% | 4.2594% | Signed actual 5.768% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 |
Exact-contract strategy reconstruction
| Structure | Reconstructed runs | Profitable | Average return on max loss | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Straddle | 7 | 3 / 7 | -9.2% | 46.8% | -56.1% |
| Long Strangle | 6 | 0 / 6 | -62.6% | -28.0% | -100.2% |
| Calendar | 4 | 0 / 4 | -86.6% | -5.0% | -234.7% |
| Iron Condor | 2 | 0 / 2 | -41.8% | -13.0% | -70.5% |
| Bear Call Spread | 1 | 0 / 1 | -43.6% | -43.6% | -43.6% |
| Bull Put Spread | 1 | 0 / 1 | -1.1% | -1.1% | -1.1% |
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Bull Put Spread
Did not clear entry filters- Modeled entry credit
- $27.50
- Payoff max loss
- -$222.50
- Payoff max profit
- $27.50
- Modeled exit P&L
- -$2.60-1.1% on stored risk basis $232.50
Entry Jul 8, 2026 → Exit Jul 21, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.
Update time unavailable
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
$24.345Expiration P/L -$222.50Update time unavailable
Event / reference markers
- Entry spot: $48.69
- Expiry breakeven $47.225: $47.225
- sell put strike $47.50: $47.50
- buy put strike $45.00: $45.00
Exact data table
| Observation | Expiration P/L (USD) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| -$222.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$222.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| -$194.33 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$145.64 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$96.95 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$48.26 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $0.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $0.43 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $27.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| $27.50 | Entry spot reference | Update time unavailable | |
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| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | CSX260724P00047500 | $47.50 put · 2026-07-24 | $0.70 | $0.31 |
| BUY × 1 | CSX260724P00045000 | $45.00 put · 2026-07-24 | $0.43 | $0.04 |
Breakevens: $47.23. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.
Stored costs: $0.65 / contract / side · slippage 25.0% of spread / fillExample methodology and limitations
27 quote gaps · Record hist_CSX_6041a4d447d0da2d · Historical methodology
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