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CVECenovus Energy Inc Common Stock
Next verified earnings Oct 30, 2026 · Earnings history
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for CVE
Observed outcomes from 7 earnings events (Oct 31, 2024 – Jul 29, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Updated Oct 8, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
2024-10-31Realized move 3.599%Implied move 6.7487%Signed actual -3.599% · Reconstructed · 8 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 8, 2026
Exact data table
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.599% | 6.7487% | Signed actual -3.599% · Reconstructed · 8 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 2.1756% | 4.4786% | Signed actual -2.1756% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 3.7619% | 7.2279% | Signed actual 3.7619% · Reconstructed · 8 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 1.0619% | 7.2993% | Signed actual 1.0619% · Reconstructed · 8 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 1.0145% | 7.4627% | Signed actual 1.0145% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 4.6961% | 6.5681% | Signed actual -4.6961% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 5.0978% | 8.1345% | Signed actual 5.0978% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 |
Exact-contract strategy reconstruction
| Structure | Reconstructed runs | Profitable | Average return on max loss | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Straddle | 7 | 2 / 7 | -5.4% | 88.8% | -39.3% |
| Long Strangle | 7 | 2 / 7 | -14.0% | 178.5% | -71.5% |
| Bear Call Spread | 6 | 1 / 6 | -31.0% | 4.6% | -107.1% |
| Bull Put Spread | 4 | 0 / 4 | -16.6% | -6.0% | -36.9% |
| Iron Condor | 4 | 0 / 4 | -31.4% | -12.3% | -63.0% |
| Calendar | 1 | 0 / 1 | -37.4% | -37.4% | -37.4% |
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Bear Call Spread
Did not clear entry filters- Modeled entry credit
- $28.75
- Payoff max loss
- -$171.25
- Payoff max profit
- $28.75
- Modeled exit P&L
- -$3.85-2.4% on stored risk basis $162.50
Entry Jul 15, 2026 → Exit Jul 28, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.
Update time unavailable
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
$13.68Expiration P/L $28.75Update time unavailable
Event / reference markers
- Entry spot: $27.36
- Expiry breakeven $30.2875: $30.2875
- sell call strike $30.00: $30.00
- buy call strike $32.00: $32.00
Exact data table
| Observation | Expiration P/L (USD) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| $28.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $28.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| $28.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $28.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $28.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $28.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $28.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $28.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| $28.75 | Entry spot reference | Update time unavailable | |
| $28.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $28.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| $28.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $19.15 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$0.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$8.21 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$35.57 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$62.93 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$90.29 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$117.65 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$145.01 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$171.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$171.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| -$171.25 | Update time unavailable |
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | CVE260821C00030000 | $30.00 call · 2026-08-21 | $0.58 | $0.48 |
| BUY × 1 | CVE260821C00032000 | $32.00 call · 2026-08-21 | $0.29 | $0.18 |
Breakevens: $30.29. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.
Stored costs: $0.65 / contract / side · slippage 25.0% of spread / fillExample methodology and limitations
10 quote gaps · Record hist_CVE_319d8701f99f17c3 · Historical methodology