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CVNACarvana Co. Class A Common Stock
Next verified earnings Oct 28, 2026 · Earnings history
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for CVNA
Observed outcomes from 7 earnings events (Oct 30, 2024 – Jul 29, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Updated Oct 8, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
2024-10-30Realized move 19.2948%Implied move 12.8749%Signed actual 19.2948% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 8, 2026
Exact data table
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.2948% | 12.8749% | Signed actual 19.2948% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 9.8579% | 12.9959% | Signed actual -9.8579% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 0.1391% | 13.4172% | Signed actual 0.1391% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 16.9609% | 12.5929% | Signed actual 16.9609% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 13.8099% | 13.1902% | Signed actual -13.8099% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 0.1992% | 12.9054% | Signed actual -0.1992% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 7.3583% | 13.4327% | Signed actual -7.3583% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 |
Exact-contract strategy reconstruction
| Structure | Reconstructed runs | Profitable | Average return on max loss | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | 7 | 2 / 7 | -16.8% | 10.1% | -44.6% |
| Bull Put Spread | 7 | 4 / 7 | 1.8% | 18.8% | -23.9% |
| Iron Condor | 7 | 0 / 7 | -16.2% | -4.1% | -27.0% |
| Long Strangle | 7 | 2 / 7 | -16.4% | 38.3% | -49.3% |
| Long Straddle | 6 | 2 / 6 | -4.7% | 14.7% | -18.8% |
| Calendar | 5 | 1 / 5 | -39.9% | 3.6% | -131.9% |
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Bear Call Spread
Did not clear entry filters- Modeled entry credit
- $87.50
- Payoff max loss
- -$412.50
- Payoff max profit
- $87.50
- Modeled exit P&L
- $39.6510.1% on stored risk basis $394.00
Entry Jul 15, 2026 → Exit Jul 28, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.
Update time unavailable
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
$35.295Expiration P/L $87.50Update time unavailable
Event / reference markers
- Entry spot: $70.59
- Expiry breakeven $80.875: $80.875
- sell call strike $80.00: $80.00
- buy call strike $85.00: $85.00
Exact data table
| Observation | Expiration P/L (USD) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $87.50 | Entry spot reference | Update time unavailable | |
| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| $87.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $40.24 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $0.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$30.35 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$100.94 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$171.53 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$242.12 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$312.71 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$383.30 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$412.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$412.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$412.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$412.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$412.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| -$412.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$412.50 | Update time unavailable |
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | CVNA260731C00080000 | $80.00 call · 2026-07-31 | $2.33 | $0.69 |
| BUY × 1 | CVNA260731C00085000 | $85.00 call · 2026-07-31 | $1.46 | $0.24 |
Breakevens: $80.88. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.
Stored costs: $0.65 / contract / side · slippage 25.0% of spread / fillExample methodology and limitations
4 quote gaps · Record hist_CVNA_71c373b5b71bfa30 · Historical methodology