Earnings volatility research · Nov 4, 2026
CXW · CoreCivic, Inc. Common Stock
$31.78 · Earnings in 27 days — After close (AMC) · Updated after Oct 6, 2026 market close
Awaiting review
Observed earnings moves8History through Oct 8, 2026
Mean absolute actual move6.8%8 observed events · not a forecast
Actual exceeded priced move40.0%2 of 5 paired observations
Options evidence coverage33Valid contracts · snapshot Oct 6, 2026
Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts
Setup summary
A snapshot exists but has not cleared research review for publication.
VolatilityUnknown
Event IV deviationUnavailablevs T-28 median
Implied moveUnknown
Current implied moveUnavailable
Median actual move3.4%n=12
Term structureEvent Spike
LiquidityAcceptable
Primary setupNo setupAwaiting review
Secondary candidatesNone
Sample qualityLowFewer than 4 reconstructed events.
Why this matters
Event-relative volatility comparison is unavailable for this snapshot.
No current candidate is available for this ticker.
Unknown event volatility; acceptable liquidity. Historical evidence quality is low (fewer than 4 reconstructed events.) and the sample covers exact-contract reconstructions, not live published recommendations.
Current implied volatility versus prior earnings cycles
No matched historical checkpoint is available for this snapshot.
Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
T−35Current IV UnavailableHistorical median UnavailableHistorical p25 UnavailableHistorical p75 Unavailable0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Event / reference markers
- Earnings: 0
Exact data table
| Observation | Current IV (%) | Historical median (%) | Historical p25 (%) | Historical p75 (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 55.265% | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable. | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT |
Expected move and historical earnings behavior
ATM_STRADDLE_MIDPOINT · event expiration Unavailable · no quote timestamp
Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
2023-11-06Realized move 5.2161%Implied move UnavailableSigned actual 5.2161% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Exact data table
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2161% | Unavailable | Signed actual 5.2161% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 6.0071% | Unavailable | Signed actual 6.0071% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 0.8464% | Unavailable | Signed actual 0.8464% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 3.3442% | Unavailable | Signed actual 3.3442% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 25.5973% | Unavailable | Signed actual 25.5973% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 4.2463% | Unavailable | Signed actual 4.2463% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 2.5664% | Unavailable | Signed actual 2.5664% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 2.0408% | Unavailable | Signed actual 2.0408% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 9.9249% | Unavailable | Signed actual 9.9249% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 3.4595% | Unavailable | Signed actual 3.4595% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 3.0704% | Unavailable | Signed actual 3.0704% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 3.2341% | Unavailable | Signed actual 3.2341% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT |
Implied moveUnavailable
Implied dollar moveUnavailable
Lower / upper boundary— / —
Historical median absolute3.4%
Events exceeding implied0 / 0
Move richnessUnavailable
Historical sample12 events · Low quality
Implied observations come from the earnings expiration at the stored snapshot; realized moves use the absolute post-earnings session return. Missing implied quotes remain gaps — they are never treated as zero moves, and exceedance counts use only paired observations.
Volatility term structure
The earnings expiration trades 6.1 volatility points above the next expiration. Classification: Event Spike.
Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
2026-10-16ATM IV 47.335%10 DTE · ATM strike $32.00 · No stored earnings markerUpdated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Event / reference markers
- Earnings expiry 2026-11-20: 45
Exact data table
| Observation | ATM IV (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47.335% | 10 DTE · ATM strike $32.00 · No stored earnings marker | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 55.265% | 45 DTE · ATM strike $32.00 · Contains earnings | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 49.705% | 73 DTE · ATM strike $34.00 · No stored earnings marker | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT | |
| 49.145% | 101 DTE · ATM strike $32.00 · No stored earnings marker | Updated Oct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT |
Eligible candidates
Only structures that passed every applicable gate are shown.
No current candidate is available for this ticker. Verified event facts and observed history remain below.
No attractive setup detected
The event was evaluated and no candidate cleared every filter. That is a valid research outcome.
- Directional confirmation is missing for directional structures.
Comparable CXW earnings events
Rebuilt from observed quotes after each event — reconstruction evidence, not proof of a live historical publication.
Scroll horizontally to see every column.
| Earnings date | Actual move | Implied move | Reconstruction basis | Strategy outcomes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2023 | 5.2% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 6.0% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
| May 8, 2024 | 0.8% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
| Aug 7, 2024 | 3.3% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 25.6% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
| Feb 10, 2025 | -4.2% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
| May 7, 2025 | -2.6% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
| Aug 6, 2025 | 2.0% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
| Nov 5, 2025 | -9.9% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | -3.5% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
| May 6, 2026 | 3.1% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 3.2% | Unavailable | Same Ticker Reconstruction | — |
How this was generated
Inputs, assumptions, and versions that produced the numbers above.
Research methodology details
Expand for timestamps, sample sizes, models, and provenance
Expand
Research methodology details
Expand for timestamps, sample sizes, models, and provenance
Market data timestampOct 6, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Snapshot dateOct 6, 2026
Historical sample12 events · Low quality
Event checkpointsT-35, T-28, T-21, T-14, T-7, T-3, T-1, T+1
Slippage model25% of quoted spread per fill
Commission$0.65 per contract per side
Missing contractsNever imputed
Dataset statusVALID
PublishableYes
Hard errors0
Warnings0
Checks passed10/10
Market dataLicensed market data
Earnings datesVerified public earnings calendar
Engine versionsbacktest 0.2.0 · features 0.3.0 · selector 0.2.0 · classifier 0.2.0 · llm_prompt 0.1.0 · configuration 0.2.0
Research IDres_CXW_2026-10-06_c3665f85c0f5
Risk record
- Earnings dates can move after this snapshot was captured.
- Bid/ask midpoint fills may not be achievable in live trading.
- Historical reconstruction uses current methodology and is not proof of a live historical publication.
Research methodology and definitions
Primary candidate construction
Exact legs, exposure and payoff for the primary eligible structure.
No current candidate is available for this ticker. Browse available research.
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for CXW
Observed outcomes from 8 earnings events (Nov 6, 2024 – Aug 5, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Updated Oct 8, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
2024-11-06Realized move 25.5973%Implied move 12.6559%Signed actual 25.5973% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 8, 2026
Exact data table
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.5973% | 12.6559% | Signed actual 25.5973% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 4.2463% | Unavailable | Signed actual -4.2463% · Reconstructed · 6 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 2.5664% | 8.7814% | Signed actual -2.5664% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 2.0408% | 9.448% | Signed actual 2.0408% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 9.9249% | 9.7667% | Signed actual -9.9249% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 3.4595% | 8.6945% | Signed actual -3.4595% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 3.0704% | Unavailable | Signed actual 3.0704% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 3.2341% | Unavailable | Signed actual 3.2341% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 |
Exact-contract strategy reconstruction
| Structure | Reconstructed runs | Profitable | Average return on max loss | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Straddle | 4 | 1 / 4 | -22.2% | 7.3% | -58.3% |
| Bear Call Spread | 2 | 1 / 2 | -7.0% | 1.4% | -15.4% |
| Long Strangle | 2 | 0 / 2 | -16.8% | -9.2% | -24.4% |
| Bull Put Spread | 1 | 0 / 1 | -34.1% | -34.1% | -34.1% |
| Iron Condor | 1 | 0 / 1 | -34.9% | -34.9% | -34.9% |
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Bull Put Spread
Did not clear entry filters- Modeled entry credit
- $15.00
- Payoff max loss
- -$85.00
- Payoff max profit
- $15.00
- Modeled exit P&L
- -$23.85-34.1% on stored risk basis $70.00
Entry Apr 22, 2026 → Exit May 5, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.
Update time unavailable
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
$10.205Expiration P/L -$85.00Update time unavailable
Event / reference markers
- Entry spot: $20.41
- Expiry breakeven $18.85: $18.85
- sell put strike $19.00: $19.00
- buy put strike $18.00: $18.00
Exact data table
| Observation | Expiration P/L (USD) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| -$85.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$85.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$85.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$85.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| -$68.51 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$48.10 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$27.69 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$7.28 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $0.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $13.13 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $15.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | CXW260515P00019000 | $19.00 put · 2026-05-15 | $0.46 | $0.61 |
| BUY × 1 | CXW260515P00018000 | $18.00 put · 2026-05-15 | $0.31 | $0.25 |
Breakevens: $18.85. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.
Stored costs: $0.65 / contract / side · slippage 25.0% of spread / fillExample methodology and limitations
30 quote gaps · Record hist_CXW_a0385f514a4c88ee · Historical methodology
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