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DALDelta Air Lines, Inc. Common Stock
Next verified event unavailable · Earnings history
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for DAL
Observed outcomes from 13 earnings events (Oct 12, 2023 – Oct 9, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Implied moves available from Oct 12, 2023; gaps indicate missing quotes.
Updated Oct 17, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Exact data table
DAL · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.3068% | 4.3774% | Signed actual -2.3068% · Reconstructed · 9 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 | |
| 8.9684% | 3.9517% | Signed actual -8.9684% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 | |
| 2.2825% | 5.5579% | Signed actual -2.2825% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 | |
| 3.9905% | 6.9035% | Signed actual -3.9905% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 | |
| 1.0625% | 5.8062% | Signed actual -1.0625% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 | |
| 9.0036% | Unavailable | Signed actual 9.0036% · Reconstructed · 22 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 | |
| 23.3834% | 11.7614% | Signed actual 23.3834% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 | |
| 11.9921% | 7.0217% | Signed actual 11.9921% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 | |
| 4.2892% | 6.9328% | Signed actual 4.2892% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 | |
| 2.3933% | 6.5536% | Signed actual -2.3933% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 | |
| 3.7489% | 6.9872% | Signed actual 3.7489% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 | |
| 1.809% | 4.7191% | Signed actual -1.809% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 | |
| 0.0365% | Unavailable | Signed actual 0.0365% · Reconstructed · 20 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 |
Compare entry timing
Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.
Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.
Includes only trades explicitly recorded as passing entry filters. Unknown eligibility and failed-filter runs are excluded; no all-history fallback is applied when none pass. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.
Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.
| Strategy | T−35 | T−34 | T−33 | T−32 | T−31 | T−30 | T−29 | T−28 | T−27 | T−26 | T−25 | T−24 | T−23 | T−22 | T−21 | T−20 | T−19 | T−18 | T−17 | T−16 | T−15 | T−14 | T−13 | T−12 | T−11 | T−10 | T−9 | T−8 | T−7 | T−6 | T−5 | T−4 | T−3 | T−2 | T−1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Bull Put Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Calendar | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Iron Condor | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Long Straddle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | |||||
| Long Strangle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | |||||
| Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.
T−14 entry details
| Strategy | Events | Average | Median | Worst observed | Best observed | Did not pass filters / Unknown eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calendar | 6 | $2.61 | $19.15 | -$106.10 | $60.65 | 0 / 0 |
| Iron Condor | 6 | -$38.53 | -$16.08 | -$205.20 | $23.55 | 0 / 0 |
4 unavailable tests at T−14
- DAL_2023-10-12 · Checkpoint quotes · provider history before 2023-10-01
- DAL_2024-01-12 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- DAL_2024-01-12 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- DAL_2026-01-13 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Calendar
Passed entry filters- Modeled entry debit
- $204.7500
- Payoff max loss
- Model dependent
- Payoff max profit
- Model dependent
- Modeled exit P&L
- $28.9015.7% on stored risk basis $183.50
Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.
Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.
Entry Sep 25, 2026 → Exit Oct 1, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Different expirations require time and volatility assumptions.
This example spans different expirations. A comparable expiration payoff needs time and volatility assumptions; the exact fills and realized modeled result are below.
Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | DAL261002C00085000 | $85.00 call · 2026-10-02 | $1.8150 | $0.5050 |
| BUY × 1 | DAL261016C00085000 | $85.00 call · 2026-10-16 | $3.8625 | $2.8675 |
2565 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_DAL_7823c16afd732a59 · Historical methodology