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DOWDow Inc. Common Stock
Next verified earnings Oct 22, 2026 · Earnings history
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for DOW
Observed outcomes from 12 earnings events (Oct 24, 2023 – Jul 23, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Implied moves available from Oct 24, 2023; gaps indicate missing quotes.
Updated Oct 13, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Exact data table
DOW · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.073% | 3.8972% | Signed actual 2.073% · Reconstructed · 17 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 3.4846% | 3.5317% | Signed actual 3.4846% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 0.9476% | 3.3521% | Signed actual -0.9476% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 0.8815% | 2.8976% | Signed actual -0.8815% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 0.9711% | 3.2142% | Signed actual -0.9711% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 6.0903% | 3.6419% | Signed actual -6.0903% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 2.6204% | 6.2414% | Signed actual 2.6204% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 17.4515% | 6.6019% | Signed actual -17.4515% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 12.9491% | 7.4194% | Signed actual 12.9491% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 2.2318% | 13.9669% | Signed actual -2.2318% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 0.7215% | 7.6011% | Signed actual -0.7215% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 1.12% | 5.504% | Signed actual -1.12% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 |
Compare entry timing
Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.
Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.
Includes only trades explicitly recorded as passing entry filters. Unknown eligibility and failed-filter runs are excluded; no all-history fallback is applied when none pass. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.
Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.
| Strategy | T−35 | T−34 | T−33 | T−32 | T−31 | T−30 | T−29 | T−28 | T−27 | T−26 | T−25 | T−24 | T−23 | T−22 | T−21 | T−20 | T−19 | T−18 | T−17 | T−16 | T−15 | T−14 | T−13 | T−12 | T−11 | T−10 | T−9 | T−8 | T−7 | T−6 | T−5 | T−4 | T−3 | T−2 | T−1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Bull Put Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Calendar | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Iron Condor | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | |||||||||||||||
| Long Straddle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | |
| Long Strangle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | |
| Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.
T−14 entry details
| Strategy | Events | Average | Median | Worst observed | Best observed | Did not pass filters / Unknown eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calendar | 3 | $3.23 | $4.65 | -$14.85 | $19.90 | 0 / 0 |
| Iron Condor | 2 | -$5.32 | -$5.32 | -$15.20 | $4.55 | 0 / 0 |
15 unavailable tests at T−14
- DOW_2023-10-24 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- DOW_2023-10-24 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- DOW_2024-01-25 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- DOW_2024-01-25 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- DOW_2024-04-25 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- DOW_2024-04-25 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- DOW_2025-01-30 · Long Straddle · no constructible legs
- DOW_2025-01-30 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- DOW_2025-01-30 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- DOW_2025-01-30 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- DOW_2025-01-30 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- DOW_2026-04-23 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- DOW_2026-07-23 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- DOW_2026-07-23 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- DOW_2026-07-23 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Calendar
Passed entry filters- Modeled entry debit
- $88.0000
- Payoff max loss
- Model dependent
- Payoff max profit
- Model dependent
- Modeled exit P&L
- $4.655.5% on stored risk basis $85.00
Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.
Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.
Entry Jan 15, 2026 → Exit Jan 22, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Different expirations require time and volatility assumptions.
This example spans different expirations. A comparable expiration payoff needs time and volatility assumptions; the exact fills and realized modeled result are below.
Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | DOW260123C00028000 | $28.00 call · 2026-01-23 | $0.5925 | $0.5075 |
| BUY × 1 | DOW260206C00028000 | $28.00 call · 2026-02-06 | $1.4725 | $1.4600 |
2677 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_DOW_ddd76b58467c54d0 · Historical methodology