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ETSYEtsy, Inc. Common Stock

Next verified earnings Oct 28, 2026 · Earnings history

Earnings calendar
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Past events · reconstructed

Historical reconstruction for ETSY

Observed outcomes from 11 earnings events (Nov 1, 2023 – Aug 5, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.

Historical · past

Realized move versus what was implied

Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.

Implied moves available from Nov 1, 2023; gaps indicate missing quotes.

ETSY · Implied versus actual earnings moveAbsolute realized movement and stored implied move share one scale. Signed actual returns and reconstruction status are preserved in the readout/table. Missing quotes are not zero.

Updated Oct 18, 2026

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

2023-11-01: Realized move: 1.5991% Implied move: 11.7978% Signed actual 1.5991% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints Updated Oct 18, 2026
Exact data table

ETSY · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles

ObservationRealized move (%)Implied move (%)ContextUpdated
1.5991%11.7978%Signed actual 1.5991% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 18, 2026
8.4403%10.4784%Signed actual -8.4403% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 18, 2026
15.0559%10.9946%Signed actual -15.0559% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 18, 2026
7.6451%12.2443%Signed actual -7.6451% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 18, 2026
7.189%11.1415%Signed actual 7.189% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 18, 2026
10.0541%12.0876%Signed actual -10.0541% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 18, 2026
5.7446%11.034%Signed actual -5.7446% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 18, 2026
2.7861%13.0597%Signed actual 2.7861% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 18, 2026
12.7975%11.2664%Signed actual -12.7975% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 18, 2026
9.2849%11.1351%Signed actual 9.2849% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 18, 2026
4.1929%12.4378%Signed actual -4.1929% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 18, 2026

Compare entry timing

Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.

Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.

Includes only trades explicitly recorded as passing entry filters. Unknown eligibility and failed-filter runs are excluded; no all-history fallback is applied when none pass. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.

Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.

StrategyT−35T−34T−33T−32T−31T−30T−29T−28T−27T−26T−25T−24T−23T−22T−21T−20T−19T−18T−17T−16T−15T−14T−13T−12T−11T−10T−9T−8T−7T−6T−5T−4T−3T−2T−1
Bear Call SpreadNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNot available
Bull Put SpreadNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNot available
CalendarNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot available
Iron CondorNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNot available
Long StraddleNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNot available
Long StrangleNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNot available
Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside riskNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNot available
Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside riskNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNot available

Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.

T−14 entry details

StrategyEventsAverageMedianWorst observedBest observedDid not pass filters / Unknown eligibility
Calendar1$71.90$71.90$71.90$71.900 / 0
Iron Condor5-$162.35-$86.20-$487.95-$20.700 / 0
Long Straddle2$96.15$96.15$0.65$191.650 / 0
Long Strangle2$31.78$31.78-$73.35$136.900 / 0
13 unavailable tests at T−14
  • ETSY_2024-10-30 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ETSY_2025-04-30 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ETSY_2025-04-30 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ETSY_2025-04-30 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ETSY_2025-07-30 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ETSY_2025-07-30 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ETSY_2025-10-29 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ETSY_2026-02-19 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ETSY_2026-08-05 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ETSY_2026-08-05 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ETSY_2026-08-05 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ETSY_2026-08-05 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ETSY_2026-08-05 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital

Historical examples

Example trades, payoff and risk

Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.

Iron Condor

Passed entry filters
Modeled entry credit
$5.2500
Payoff max loss
-$494.75
Payoff max profit
$5.25
Modeled exit P&L
-$159.20-46.9% on stored risk basis $339.50

Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.

Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.

Entry Oct 15, 2025 → Exit Oct 28, 2025. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.

Strategy payoffHistorical example · expiration payoff from exact entry fills (before commissions). Entry spot $70.70. Expiry maximum profit $5.25 · Expiry maximum loss -$494.75 · Expiry breakevens $63.9475, $80.0525. Total position fees $0.00 deducted once. Intrinsic at the common expiration; IV/time never alters expiry P/L. No early exercise, assignment, slippage, dividends or taxes modeled.

Update time unavailable

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

$35.35: Expiration P/L: -$394.75 Update time unavailable
Event / reference markers
  • Entry spot: $70.70
  • Expiry breakeven $63.9475: $63.9475
  • Expiry breakeven $80.0525: $80.0525
  • sell put strike $64.00: $64.00
  • buy put strike $60.00: $60.00
  • sell call strike $80.00: $80.00
  • buy call strike $85.00: $85.00
Exact data table

Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles

ObservationExpiration P/L (USD)ContextUpdated
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$394.75Update time unavailable
-$385.25Update time unavailable
-$314.55Update time unavailable
-$243.85Update time unavailable
-$173.15Update time unavailable
-$102.45Update time unavailable
-$31.75Update time unavailable
-$0.00Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Entry spot referenceUpdate time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$5.25Update time unavailable
$0.00Update time unavailable
-$54.55Update time unavailable
-$125.25Update time unavailable
-$195.95Update time unavailable
-$266.65Update time unavailable
-$337.35Update time unavailable
-$408.05Update time unavailable
-$478.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable
-$494.75Update time unavailable

Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.

Side / quantityContractStrike / expiryEntry fillExit fill
SELL × 1ETSY251031P00064000$64.00 put · 2025-10-31$1.3200$0.5825
BUY × 1ETSY251031P00060000$60.00 put · 2025-10-31$1.0550$0.1775
SELL × 1ETSY251031C00080000$80.00 call · 2025-10-31$1.0050$2.4075
BUY × 1ETSY251031C00085000$85.00 call · 2025-10-31$1.2175$1.2200

Breakevens: $63.95 / $80.05. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.

Stored costs: $0.65 / contract / side · slippage 25.0% of spread / fillExample methodology and limitations

2456 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_ETSY_523b494f1238a505 · Historical methodology