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GEMIGemini Space Station, Inc.
Next verified earnings Nov 12, 2026 · Earnings history
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for GEMI
Observed outcomes from 4 earnings events (Nov 10, 2025 – Aug 13, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Implied moves available from Mar 19, 2026; gaps indicate missing quotes.
Updated Oct 25, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Exact data table
GEMI · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.4489% | Unavailable | Signed actual -16.4489% · Reconstructed · 21 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 25, 2026 | |
| 0.6656% | 14.6812% | Signed actual -0.6656% · Reconstructed · 21 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 25, 2026 | |
| 6.0837% | 13.2114% | Signed actual 6.0837% · Reconstructed · 21 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 25, 2026 | |
| 8.8372% | 11.9904% | Signed actual -8.8372% · Reconstructed · 21 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 25, 2026 |
Compare structures and entry timing
Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include stored modeled fill costs and commissions.
Coverage and modeling assumptions
The Long Call DITM (0.90 Delta) cohort has no validated live entry gate. Its structural results appear under “All structural examples”; entry-filter status is shown only when stored, and it is not a live recommendation.
For this ticker, the DITM 0.90-delta backfill covers requested calendar entries from T−28 through T−1: all recorded events processed. Processed does not mean every quote or trade is available, and this record does not establish completion across the 500-ticker universe.
Includes trades that failed entry filters and runs with unknown eligibility; this measures structures, not qualified recommendations. Failed-filter examples are not recommendations. The exit is before earnings, or earlier if required by expiration. New DITM long-call structural examples use modeled quote-midpoint entry and exit fills, with commissions; they are not live recommendations.
Matrix values use exact aggregates across all stored cohort outcomes. Trade details below are bounded recent examples, not the full trade archive; the examples are truncated. Totals apply to this ticker and selected entry, exit rule and sample scope only.
Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.
| Strategy | T−28 | T−27 | T−26 | T−25 | T−24 | T−23 | T−22 | T−21 | T−20 | T−19 | T−18 | T−17 | T−16 | T−15 | T−14 | T−13 | T−12 | T−11 | T−10 | T−9 | T−8 | T−7 | T−6 | T−5 | T−4 | T−3 | T−2 | T−1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Straddle | Not available | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Long Strangle | Not available | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Calendar | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Iron Condor | Not available | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bull Put Spread | Not available | Not available | Not available | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bear Call Spread | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Short Straddle | Not available | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Short Strangle | Not available | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Long Call DITM (0.90 Delta) | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Requested entry tests: T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.
Filter evidence, execution costs and a plan
Compare all valid structures with the recorded filter-pass subset at the same entry and exit. A difference describes selection within this history; it does not demonstrate a causal or out-of-sample advantage. Unknown eligibility prevents a comparable difference. No confidence interval or unseen-period validation is stored for these cohorts.
Subtracts your additional dollar assumption from stored net P&L, which already includes recorded costs. This is a sensitivity scenario, not a bid/ask replay or a fill forecast. Maximum-loss returns below retain their original cost basis.
| Structure | All: runs / events | All: mean net P&L | Mean return / modeled loss | Passed: runs / events | Passed: mean net P&L | Selection difference | Unknown eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Straddle | 4 / 4 | $19.90 | -1.5% | No recorded passes | Unavailable | Not comparable / unavailable | 0 |
| Long Strangle | 4 / 4 | -$1.97 | -3.1% | No recorded passes | Unavailable | Not comparable / unavailable | 0 |
| Calendar | 4 / 4 | -$0.10 | 17.5% | No recorded passes | Unavailable | Not comparable / unavailable | 0 |
| Iron Condor | 2 / 2 | -$32.70 | -83.6% | No recorded passes | Unavailable | Not comparable / unavailable | 0 |
| Bull Put Spread | 2 / 2 | -$28.85 | -61.7% | No recorded passes | Unavailable | Not comparable / unavailable | 0 |
| Bear Call Spread | 2 / 2 | -$3.85 | 6.2% | No recorded passes | Unavailable | Not comparable / unavailable | 0 |
| Short Straddle | 4 / 4 | -$25.10 | Unbounded risk; unavailable | No recorded passes | Unavailable | Not comparable / unavailable | 0 |
| Short Strangle | 4 / 4 | -$3.22 | Unbounded risk; unavailable | No recorded passes | Unavailable | Not comparable / unavailable | 0 |
| Long Call DITM (0.90 Delta) | 4 / 4 | -$136.93 | -39.7% | No recorded passes | Unavailable | Not comparable / unavailable | 0 |
Choose a structure with stored results and valid cost/budget inputs to build a plan.
Entry T−14 · before earnings / expiration. Your selection, timing, cost scenario and budget become editable suggestions. No contract, live quote, capital allocation or order is inferred from a historical average.
T−14 entry details
| Strategy | Events | Average | Median | Worst observed | Best observed | Did not pass filters / Unknown eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Straddle | 4 | $19.90 | $3.65 | -$32.60 | $104.90 | 4 / 0 |
| Long Strangle | 4 | -$1.97 | -$15.10 | -$47.60 | $69.90 | 4 / 0 |
| Calendar | 4 | -$0.10 | $2.40 | -$40.10 | $34.90 | 4 / 0 |
| Iron Condor | 2 | -$32.70 | -$32.70 | -$50.20 | -$15.20 | 2 / 0 |
| Bull Put Spread | 2 | -$28.85 | -$28.85 | -$30.10 | -$27.60 | 2 / 0 |
| Bear Call Spread | 2 | -$3.85 | -$3.85 | -$20.10 | $12.40 | 2 / 0 |
| Short Straddle | 4 | -$25.10 | -$8.85 | -$110.10 | $27.40 | 4 / 0 |
| Short Strangle | 4 | -$3.22 | $9.90 | -$75.10 | $42.40 | 4 / 0 |
| Long Call DITM (0.90 Delta) | 4 | -$136.93 | -$111.30 | -$336.30 | $11.20 | 4 / 0 |
6 unavailable tests at T−14
- GEMI_2026-05-14 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- GEMI_2026-05-14 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- GEMI_2026-05-14 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- GEMI_2026-08-13 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- GEMI_2026-08-13 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- GEMI_2026-08-13 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
Era, drawdown and spread sensitivity
Era breakdown, drawdown and spread scenario
Backtest only, for T−14 entry, before earnings / expiration. A positive average in one era does not establish positive expected profit, and losing eras must be read beside winning ones.
Spread scenario: the scenario average subtracts the same flat cost from every trade's stored midpoint P&L. Stored fills are midpoint-based, so this is a sensitivity scenario, not measured bid/ask spread data and not a fill forecast.
Spread scenario · Long Call DITM (0.90 Delta)
| Basis | Average P&L per one lot | Runs / events |
|---|---|---|
| Midpoint (stored fills) | -$136.93 | 4 / 4 |
| Scenario: midpoint minus additional cost | -$136.93 | 4 / 4 |
Era breakdown · Long Call DITM (0.90 Delta)
Era and drawdown unavailable for this ticker: stored trade details are bounded examples, not the full cohort, and matrix aggregates have no era dimension. Bounded examples are not used to estimate era results or drawdown.
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
These are bounded recent examples, not every trade in the cohort. Matrix statistics use the full stored cohort.
Calendar
DID NOT PASS FILTERS · NOT A RECOMMENDATION- Modeled entry debit
- $20.0000
- Payoff max loss
- Model dependent
- Payoff max profit
- Model dependent
- Modeled exit P&L
- $4.9024.5% on stored risk basis $20.00
Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.
Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.
Entry filter failures: historical sample insufficient.
Entry Jul 30, 2026 → Exit Aug 6, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Different expirations require time and volatility assumptions.
This example spans different expirations. A comparable expiration payoff needs time and volatility assumptions; the exact fills and realized modeled result are below.
Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | GEMI260807C00004000 | $4.00 call · 2026-08-07 | $0.3500 | $0.1250 |
| BUY × 1 | GEMI260821C00004000 | $4.00 call · 2026-08-21 | $0.5500 | $0.4000 |
1119 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_GEMI_03377d3a78edc0ac · Historical methodology