Earnings volatility research
IBKR · Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.
Next verified earnings in 3 days · Oct 15, 2026 · After close (AMC).
Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts
No reviewed research is available for IBKR yet
Coverage and research availability are separate datasets.
A snapshot may be in progress, awaiting review, or blocked by data-quality gates. Published research appears here once it clears review.
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for IBKR
Observed outcomes from 12 earnings events (Oct 17, 2023 – Jul 21, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Implied moves available from Oct 17, 2023; gaps indicate missing quotes.
Updated Oct 11, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Exact data table
IBKR · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.1179% | 4.3931% | Signed actual -4.1179% · Reconstructed · 12 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 | |
| 2.3055% | Unavailable | Signed actual 2.3055% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 | |
| 1.7133% | 4.8553% | Signed actual 1.7133% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 | |
| 0.2346% | 4.412% | Signed actual -0.2346% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 | |
| 4.053% | 4.5109% | Signed actual -4.053% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 | |
| 8.7902% | Unavailable | Signed actual 8.7902% · Reconstructed · 22 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 | |
| 8.9546% | 7.3126% | Signed actual -8.9546% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 | |
| 7.7739% | 4.4996% | Signed actual 7.7739% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 | |
| 3.342% | 5.7331% | Signed actual -3.342% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 | |
| 5.9992% | Unavailable | Signed actual 5.9992% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 | |
| 1.8965% | 5.6308% | Signed actual -1.8965% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 | |
| 0.9744% | 6.2718% | Signed actual -0.9744% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 |
Compare entry timing
Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.
Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.
1 malformed straddle/strangle example is excluded from comparison because stored leg metadata does not match the named structure. The original stored historical evidence is preserved.
Includes trades that failed entry filters; this measures structures, not a history of qualified recommendations. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.
Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.
| Strategy | T−35 | T−34 | T−33 | T−32 | T−31 | T−30 | T−29 | T−28 | T−27 | T−26 | T−25 | T−24 | T−23 | T−22 | T−21 | T−20 | T−19 | T−18 | T−17 | T−16 | T−15 | T−14 | T−13 | T−12 | T−11 | T−10 | T−9 | T−8 | T−7 | T−6 | T−5 | T−4 | T−3 | T−2 | T−1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bull Put Spread | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Calendar | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Iron Condor | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Long Straddle | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Long Strangle | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | Not available |
Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.
T−14 entry details
| Strategy | Events | Average | Median | Worst observed | Best observed | Did not pass filters / Unknown eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | 10 | -$16.73 | $11.78 | -$275.10 | $43.65 | 10 / 0 |
| Bull Put Spread | 10 | -$14.73 | -$0.10 | -$138.85 | $43.65 | 10 / 0 |
| Calendar | 4 | $5.52 | $13.65 | -$21.35 | $16.15 | 4 / 0 |
| Iron Condor | 10 | -$31.45 | -$15.20 | -$231.45 | $62.30 | 6 / 0 |
| Long Straddle | 11 | -$92.15 | -$130.10 | -$480.10 | $504.90 | 10 / 0 |
| Long Strangle | 11 | -$18.96 | -$87.60 | -$315.10 | $449.90 | 10 / 0 |
| Short Straddle | 11 | -$44.87 | $11.15 | -$665.10 | $284.90 | 11 / 0 |
| Short Strangle | 11 | -$55.33 | $54.90 | -$600.10 | $174.90 | 11 / 0 |
11 unavailable tests at T−14
- IBKR_2023-10-17 · Calendar · no constructible legs
- IBKR_2024-01-16 · Calendar · no constructible legs
- IBKR_2024-04-16 · Calendar · no constructible legs
- IBKR_2024-07-16 · Checkpoint quotes · no observed historical options at checkpoint
- IBKR_2024-10-15 · Calendar · no constructible legs
- IBKR_2025-01-21 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- IBKR_2025-04-15 · Calendar · no constructible legs
- IBKR_2025-07-17 · Calendar · no constructible legs
- IBKR_2026-04-21 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- IBKR_2026-04-21 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- IBKR_2026-04-21 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Bear Call Spread
Did not clear entry filters- Modeled entry credit
- $37.5000
- Payoff max loss
- -$662.50
- Payoff max profit
- $37.50
- Modeled exit P&L
- $41.157.3% on stored risk basis $565.00
Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.
Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.
Entry filter failures: directional confirmation missing.
Entry Jul 7, 2026 → Exit Jul 20, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.
Update time unavailable
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Event / reference markers
- Entry spot: $94.57
- Expiry breakeven $103.375: $103.375
- sell call strike $103.00: $103.00
- buy call strike $110.00: $110.00
Exact data table
Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Expiration P/L (USD) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Entry spot reference | Update time unavailable | |
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $37.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $29.37 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $0.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$65.20 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$159.77 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$254.34 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$348.91 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$443.48 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$538.05 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$632.62 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable |
Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | IBKR260724C00103000 | $103.00 call · 2026-07-24 | $1.2250 | $0.3125 |
| BUY × 1 | IBKR260724C00110000 | $110.00 call · 2026-07-24 | $0.8500 | $0.3750 |
Breakevens: $103.38. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.
2615 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_IBKR_2bc1ab53c40531f3 · Historical methodology
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