Earnings volatility research

IBKR · Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.

Next verified earnings in 3 days · Oct 15, 2026 · After close (AMC).

Research pending
Observed earnings moves12History through Oct 11, 2026
Mean absolute actual move4.2%12 observed events · not a forecast
Actual exceeded priced move22.2%2 of 9 paired observations
Options evidence coverageUnavailableNo stored options snapshot

Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts

My workspace

No reviewed research is available for IBKR yet

Coverage and research availability are separate datasets.

Next verified eventOct 15, 2026 · After close (AMC)
Days to next event3 calendar days
Research window1–35 days before earnings
Why no researchNo snapshot has cleared data-quality and review gates for this event yet
Calendar sourceVerified earnings calendar

A snapshot may be in progress, awaiting review, or blocked by data-quality gates. Published research appears here once it clears review.

Past events · reconstructed

Historical reconstruction for IBKR

Observed outcomes from 12 earnings events (Oct 17, 2023 – Jul 21, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.

Historical · past

Realized move versus what was implied

Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.

Implied moves available from Oct 17, 2023; gaps indicate missing quotes.

IBKR · Implied versus actual earnings moveAbsolute realized movement and stored implied move share one scale. Signed actual returns and reconstruction status are preserved in the readout/table. Missing quotes are not zero.

Updated Oct 11, 2026

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

2023-10-17Realized move 4.1179%Implied move 4.3931%Signed actual -4.1179% · Reconstructed · 12 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 11, 2026
Exact data table

IBKR · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles

ObservationRealized move (%)Implied move (%)ContextUpdated
4.1179%4.3931%Signed actual -4.1179% · Reconstructed · 12 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 11, 2026
2.3055%UnavailableSigned actual 2.3055% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 11, 2026
1.7133%4.8553%Signed actual 1.7133% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 11, 2026
0.2346%4.412%Signed actual -0.2346% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 11, 2026
4.053%4.5109%Signed actual -4.053% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 11, 2026
8.7902%UnavailableSigned actual 8.7902% · Reconstructed · 22 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 11, 2026
8.9546%7.3126%Signed actual -8.9546% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 11, 2026
7.7739%4.4996%Signed actual 7.7739% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 11, 2026
3.342%5.7331%Signed actual -3.342% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 11, 2026
5.9992%UnavailableSigned actual 5.9992% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 11, 2026
1.8965%5.6308%Signed actual -1.8965% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 11, 2026
0.9744%6.2718%Signed actual -0.9744% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 11, 2026

Compare entry timing

Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.

Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.

1 malformed straddle/strangle example is excluded from comparison because stored leg metadata does not match the named structure. The original stored historical evidence is preserved.

Includes trades that failed entry filters; this measures structures, not a history of qualified recommendations. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.

Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.

StrategyT−35T−34T−33T−32T−31T−30T−29T−28T−27T−26T−25T−24T−23T−22T−21T−20T−19T−18T−17T−16T−15T−14T−13T−12T−11T−10T−9T−8T−7T−6T−5T−4T−3T−2T−1
Bear Call SpreadNot available
Bull Put SpreadNot available
CalendarNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot available
Iron CondorNot available
Long StraddleNot available
Long StrangleNot available
Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside riskNot available
Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside riskNot available

Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.

T−14 entry details

StrategyEventsAverageMedianWorst observedBest observedDid not pass filters / Unknown eligibility
Bear Call Spread10-$16.73$11.78-$275.10$43.6510 / 0
Bull Put Spread10-$14.73-$0.10-$138.85$43.6510 / 0
Calendar4$5.52$13.65-$21.35$16.154 / 0
Iron Condor10-$31.45-$15.20-$231.45$62.306 / 0
Long Straddle11-$92.15-$130.10-$480.10$504.9010 / 0
Long Strangle11-$18.96-$87.60-$315.10$449.9010 / 0
Short Straddle11-$44.87$11.15-$665.10$284.9011 / 0
Short Strangle11-$55.33$54.90-$600.10$174.9011 / 0
11 unavailable tests at T−14
  • IBKR_2023-10-17 · Calendar · no constructible legs
  • IBKR_2024-01-16 · Calendar · no constructible legs
  • IBKR_2024-04-16 · Calendar · no constructible legs
  • IBKR_2024-07-16 · Checkpoint quotes · no observed historical options at checkpoint
  • IBKR_2024-10-15 · Calendar · no constructible legs
  • IBKR_2025-01-21 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • IBKR_2025-04-15 · Calendar · no constructible legs
  • IBKR_2025-07-17 · Calendar · no constructible legs
  • IBKR_2026-04-21 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • IBKR_2026-04-21 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • IBKR_2026-04-21 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital

Historical examples

Example trades, payoff and risk

Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.

Bear Call Spread

Did not clear entry filters
Modeled entry credit
$37.5000
Payoff max loss
-$662.50
Payoff max profit
$37.50
Modeled exit P&L
$41.157.3% on stored risk basis $565.00

Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.

Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.

Entry filter failures: directional confirmation missing.

Entry Jul 7, 2026 → Exit Jul 20, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.

Strategy payoffHistorical example · expiration payoff from exact entry fills (before commissions). Entry spot $94.57. Expiry maximum profit $37.50 · Expiry maximum loss -$662.50 · Expiry breakevens $103.375. Total position fees $0.00 deducted once. Intrinsic at the common expiration; IV/time never alters expiry P/L. No early exercise, assignment, slippage, dividends or taxes modeled.

Update time unavailable

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

$47.285Expiration P/L $37.50Update time unavailable
Event / reference markers
  • Entry spot: $94.57
  • Expiry breakeven $103.375: $103.375
  • sell call strike $103.00: $103.00
  • buy call strike $110.00: $110.00
Exact data table

Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles

ObservationExpiration P/L (USD)ContextUpdated
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
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$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Entry spot referenceUpdate time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$37.50Update time unavailable
$29.37Update time unavailable
$0.00Update time unavailable
-$65.20Update time unavailable
-$159.77Update time unavailable
-$254.34Update time unavailable
-$348.91Update time unavailable
-$443.48Update time unavailable
-$538.05Update time unavailable
-$632.62Update time unavailable
-$662.50Update time unavailable
-$662.50Update time unavailable
-$662.50Update time unavailable
-$662.50Update time unavailable
-$662.50Update time unavailable
-$662.50Update time unavailable
-$662.50Update time unavailable
-$662.50Update time unavailable
-$662.50Update time unavailable
-$662.50Update time unavailable
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-$662.50Update time unavailable
-$662.50Update time unavailable
-$662.50Update time unavailable
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-$662.50Update time unavailable
-$662.50Update time unavailable
-$662.50Update time unavailable
-$662.50Update time unavailable
-$662.50Update time unavailable
-$662.50Update time unavailable

Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.

Side / quantityContractStrike / expiryEntry fillExit fill
SELL × 1IBKR260724C00103000$103.00 call · 2026-07-24$1.2250$0.3125
BUY × 1IBKR260724C00110000$110.00 call · 2026-07-24$0.8500$0.3750

Breakevens: $103.38. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.

Stored costs: $0.65 / contract / side · slippage 25.0% of spread / fillExample methodology and limitations

2615 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_IBKR_2bc1ab53c40531f3 · Historical methodology

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