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JNJJohnson & Johnson Common Stock
Next verified earnings Oct 13, 2026 · Earnings history
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for JNJ
Observed outcomes from 12 earnings events (Oct 17, 2023 – Jul 15, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Implied moves available from Oct 17, 2023; gaps indicate missing quotes.
Updated Oct 11, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Exact data table
JNJ · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.9141% | 2.5868% | Signed actual -0.9141% · Reconstructed · 12 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 | |
| 1.6372% | 2.4158% | Signed actual -1.6372% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 | |
| 2.1275% | 2.8152% | Signed actual -2.1275% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 | |
| 3.6885% | 2.7515% | Signed actual 3.6885% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 | |
| 1.547% | 2.6454% | Signed actual 1.547% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 | |
| 1.9439% | 2.4266% | Signed actual -1.9439% · Reconstructed · 22 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 | |
| 0.4794% | 2.6302% | Signed actual -0.4794% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 | |
| 6.1932% | 2.523% | Signed actual 6.1932% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 | |
| 0.0262% | 3.253% | Signed actual -0.0262% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 | |
| 0.0917% | 3.2583% | Signed actual -0.0917% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 | |
| 0.8993% | 3.4985% | Signed actual 0.8993% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 | |
| 2.6906% | 3.3484% | Signed actual -2.6906% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 11, 2026 |
Compare entry timing
Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.
Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.
Includes trades that failed entry filters; this measures structures, not a history of qualified recommendations. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.
Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.
| Strategy | T−35 | T−34 | T−33 | T−32 | T−31 | T−30 | T−29 | T−28 | T−27 | T−26 | T−25 | T−24 | T−23 | T−22 | T−21 | T−20 | T−19 | T−18 | T−17 | T−16 | T−15 | T−14 | T−13 | T−12 | T−11 | T−10 | T−9 | T−8 | T−7 | T−6 | T−5 | T−4 | T−3 | T−2 | T−1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bull Put Spread | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Calendar | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Iron Condor | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Long Straddle | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Long Strangle | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available |
Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.
T−14 entry details
| Strategy | Events | Average | Median | Worst observed | Best observed | Did not pass filters / Unknown eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | 11 | -$46.96 | $14.90 | -$395.85 | $119.65 | 11 / 0 |
| Bull Put Spread | 11 | -$5.96 | $58.65 | -$430.85 | $72.90 | 11 / 0 |
| Calendar | 10 | -$37.55 | -$30.48 | -$152.60 | $36.65 | 6 / 0 |
| Iron Condor | 10 | -$16.63 | $37.43 | -$322.95 | $157.30 | 6 / 0 |
| Long Straddle | 12 | -$63.12 | -$147.35 | -$541.35 | $457.15 | 12 / 0 |
| Long Strangle | 12 | -$32.33 | -$98.10 | -$340.35 | $369.15 | 12 / 0 |
| Short Straddle | 12 | -$13.70 | $84.65 | -$571.85 | $423.65 | 12 / 0 |
| Short Strangle | 12 | -$6.25 | $72.40 | -$441.85 | $284.65 | 12 / 0 |
6 unavailable tests at T−14
- JNJ_2024-01-23 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- JNJ_2024-01-23 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- JNJ_2024-04-16 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- JNJ_2024-04-16 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- JNJ_2024-04-16 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- JNJ_2025-01-22 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Bear Call Spread
Did not clear entry filters- Modeled entry credit
- $183.7500
- Payoff max loss
- -$1,316.25
- Payoff max profit
- $183.75
- Modeled exit P&L
- $96.157.4% on stored risk basis $1,297.50
Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.
Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.
Entry filter failures: directional confirmation missing.
Entry Jul 1, 2026 → Exit Jul 14, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.
Update time unavailable
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Event / reference markers
- Entry spot: $253.98
- Expiry breakeven $266.8375: $266.8375
- sell call strike $265.00: $265.00
- buy call strike $280.00: $280.00
Exact data table
Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Expiration P/L (USD) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Entry spot reference | Update time unavailable | |
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $183.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $15.85 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $0.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$238.13 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$492.11 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$746.09 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,000.07 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,254.05 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,316.25 | Update time unavailable |
Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | JNJ260717C00265000 | $265.00 call · 2026-07-17 | $2.5250 | $0.9225 |
| BUY × 1 | JNJ260717C00280000 | $280.00 call · 2026-07-17 | $0.6875 | $0.0725 |
Breakevens: $266.84. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.
2469 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_JNJ_4d513750f291fba8 · Historical methodology