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LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp. Common Stock
Next verified earnings Oct 28, 2026 · Earnings history
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for LVS
Observed outcomes from 12 earnings events (Oct 18, 2023 – Jul 22, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Implied moves available from Oct 18, 2023; gaps indicate missing quotes.
Updated Oct 16, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Exact data table
LVS · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.8697% | 4.8544% | Signed actual 2.8697% · Reconstructed · 13 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 16, 2026 | |
| 1.0274% | 5.9262% | Signed actual 1.0274% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 16, 2026 | |
| 8.6602% | 4.5437% | Signed actual -8.6602% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 16, 2026 | |
| 2.4304% | 6.2971% | Signed actual -2.4304% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 16, 2026 | |
| 2.8017% | 5.8068% | Signed actual 2.8017% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 16, 2026 | |
| 11.0753% | 5.6674% | Signed actual 11.0753% · Reconstructed · 22 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 16, 2026 | |
| 6.4862% | 6.5704% | Signed actual 6.4862% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 16, 2026 | |
| 4.3131% | 4.5857% | Signed actual 4.3131% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 16, 2026 | |
| 12.3865% | 5.8376% | Signed actual 12.3865% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 16, 2026 | |
| 13.957% | 6.1143% | Signed actual -13.957% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 16, 2026 | |
| 8.6191% | 6.5867% | Signed actual -8.6191% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 16, 2026 | |
| 1.7236% | 6.9057% | Signed actual 1.7236% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 16, 2026 |
Compare entry timing
Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.
Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.
Includes only trades explicitly recorded as passing entry filters. Unknown eligibility and failed-filter runs are excluded; no all-history fallback is applied when none pass. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.
Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.
| Strategy | T−35 | T−34 | T−33 | T−32 | T−31 | T−30 | T−29 | T−28 | T−27 | T−26 | T−25 | T−24 | T−23 | T−22 | T−21 | T−20 | T−19 | T−18 | T−17 | T−16 | T−15 | T−14 | T−13 | T−12 | T−11 | T−10 | T−9 | T−8 | T−7 | T−6 | T−5 | T−4 | T−3 | T−2 | T−1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Bull Put Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Calendar | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | ||||||||||
| Iron Condor | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | Not available | |||||||||
| Long Straddle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | Not available | ||||
| Long Strangle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | Not available | ||||
| Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available |
Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.
T−14 entry details
| Strategy | Events | Average | Median | Worst observed | Best observed | Did not pass filters / Unknown eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calendar | 3 | -$23.35 | -$3.85 | -$73.85 | $7.65 | 0 / 0 |
13 unavailable tests at T−14
- LVS_2024-04-17 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- LVS_2024-04-17 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- LVS_2025-04-23 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- LVS_2025-04-23 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- LVS_2025-04-23 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- LVS_2025-07-23 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- LVS_2025-07-23 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- LVS_2025-10-22 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- LVS_2025-10-22 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- LVS_2026-07-22 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- LVS_2026-07-22 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- LVS_2026-07-22 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- LVS_2026-07-22 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Calendar
Passed entry filters- Modeled entry debit
- $123.0000
- Payoff max loss
- Model dependent
- Payoff max profit
- Model dependent
- Modeled exit P&L
- -$73.85-63.1% on stored risk basis $117.00
Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.
Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.
Entry Oct 8, 2025 → Exit Oct 16, 2025. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Different expirations require time and volatility assumptions.
This example spans different expirations. A comparable expiration payoff needs time and volatility assumptions; the exact fills and realized modeled result are below.
Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | LVS251017C00053000 | $53.00 call · 2025-10-17 | $1.4875 | $0.2250 |
| BUY × 1 | LVS251031C00053000 | $53.00 call · 2025-10-31 | $2.7175 | $0.7425 |
2866 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_LVS_0132aa05805dadda · Historical methodology