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MBLYMobileye Global Inc.

Next verified earnings Oct 22, 2026 · Earnings history

Earnings calendar
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Past events · reconstructed

Historical reconstruction for MBLY

Observed outcomes from 12 earnings events (Oct 26, 2023 – Jul 23, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.

Historical · past

Realized move versus what was implied

Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.

Implied moves available from Oct 26, 2023; gaps indicate missing quotes.

MBLY · Implied versus actual earnings moveAbsolute realized movement and stored implied move share one scale. Signed actual returns and reconstruction status are preserved in the readout/table. Missing quotes are not zero.

Updated Oct 13, 2026

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

2023-10-26: Realized move: 7.2438% Implied move: 14.7968% Signed actual 7.2438% · Reconstructed · 19 IV checkpoints Updated Oct 13, 2026
Exact data table

MBLY · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles

ObservationRealized move (%)Implied move (%)ContextUpdated
7.2438%14.7968%Signed actual 7.2438% · Reconstructed · 19 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 13, 2026
1.1948%11.2238%Signed actual 1.1948% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 13, 2026
0.7069%14.2995%Signed actual -0.7069% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 13, 2026
22.4762%13.3333%Signed actual -22.4762% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 13, 2026
9.5813%18.5185%Signed actual 9.5813% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 13, 2026
1.8738%13.7414%Signed actual 1.8738% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 13, 2026
9.8485%11.4394%Signed actual 9.8485% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 13, 2026
4.2236%10.3416%Signed actual -4.2236% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 13, 2026
1.5374%9.2243%Signed actual -1.5374% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 13, 2026
3.4007%8.318%Signed actual -3.4007% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 13, 2026
10.1266%9.2405%Signed actual 10.1266% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 13, 2026
14.9203%8.2005%Signed actual -14.9203% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 13, 2026

Compare entry timing

Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.

Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.

2 malformed straddle/strangle examples are excluded from comparison because stored leg metadata does not match the named structure. The original stored historical evidence is preserved.

Includes only trades explicitly recorded as passing entry filters. Unknown eligibility and failed-filter runs are excluded; no all-history fallback is applied when none pass. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.

Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.

StrategyT−35T−34T−33T−32T−31T−30T−29T−28T−27T−26T−25T−24T−23T−22T−21T−20T−19T−18T−17T−16T−15T−14T−13T−12T−11T−10T−9T−8T−7T−6T−5T−4T−3T−2T−1
Bear Call SpreadNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot available
Bull Put SpreadNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot available
CalendarNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot available
Iron CondorNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot available
Long StraddleNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNot available
Long StrangleNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNot available
Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside riskNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot available
Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside riskNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot available

Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.

T−14 entry details

StrategyEventsAverageMedianWorst observedBest observedDid not pass filters / Unknown eligibility
Calendar1-$9.85-$9.85-$9.85-$9.850 / 0
Iron Condor1-$20.45-$20.45-$20.45-$20.450 / 0
Long Straddle1-$48.60-$48.60-$48.60-$48.600 / 0
Long Strangle1-$45.35-$45.35-$45.35-$45.350 / 0
26 unavailable tests at T−14
  • MBLY_2023-10-26 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • MBLY_2023-10-26 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • MBLY_2023-10-26 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • MBLY_2024-01-25 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • MBLY_2024-01-25 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • MBLY_2024-01-25 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • MBLY_2024-04-25 · Calendar · no constructible legs
  • MBLY_2024-08-01 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • MBLY_2024-08-01 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • MBLY_2024-08-01 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • MBLY_2025-01-30 · Long Straddle · no constructible legs
  • MBLY_2025-01-30 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • MBLY_2025-01-30 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • MBLY_2025-01-30 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • MBLY_2025-01-30 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • MBLY_2025-01-30 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • MBLY_2025-04-24 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • MBLY_2025-04-24 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • MBLY_2026-04-23 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • MBLY_2026-04-23 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • MBLY_2026-04-23 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • MBLY_2026-04-23 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • MBLY_2026-04-23 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • MBLY_2026-07-23 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • MBLY_2026-07-23 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • MBLY_2026-07-23 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital

Historical examples

Example trades, payoff and risk

Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.

Calendar

Passed entry filters
Modeled entry debit
$39.2500
Payoff max loss
Model dependent
Payoff max profit
Model dependent
Modeled exit P&L
-$9.85-28.6% on stored risk basis $34.50

Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.

Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.

Entry Jul 9, 2026 → Exit Jul 16, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Different expirations require time and volatility assumptions.

This example spans different expirations. A comparable expiration payoff needs time and volatility assumptions; the exact fills and realized modeled result are below.

Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.

Side / quantityContractStrike / expiryEntry fillExit fill
SELL × 1MBLY260717C00009500$9.50 call · 2026-07-17$0.4175$0.0675
BUY × 1MBLY260731C00009500$9.50 call · 2026-07-31$0.8100$0.3875
Stored costs: $0.65 / contract / side · slippage 25.0% of spread / fillExample methodology and limitations

2857 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_MBLY_26a57c445b7bd49c · Historical methodology