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SHELShell PLC American Depositary Shares (each representing two (2) Ordinary Shares)
Next verified earnings Oct 29, 2026 · Earnings history
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for SHEL
Observed outcomes from 12 earnings events (Nov 2, 2023 – Jul 30, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Implied moves available from Nov 2, 2023; gaps indicate missing quotes.
Updated Oct 19, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Exact data table
SHEL · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.8326% | 2.5998% | Signed actual 4.8326% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 | |
| 1.8597% | 2.742% | Signed actual 1.8597% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 | |
| 1.635% | 2.9246% | Signed actual 1.635% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 | |
| 0.3823% | 2.8339% | Signed actual -0.3823% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 | |
| 3.004% | 2.5923% | Signed actual 3.004% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 | |
| 2.8867% | 2.933% | Signed actual 2.8867% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 | |
| 2.8396% | 3.6265% | Signed actual 2.8396% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 | |
| 0.6833% | 2.1263% | Signed actual 0.6833% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 | |
| 1.0855% | 3.1105% | Signed actual -1.0855% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 | |
| 5.2799% | 2.8557% | Signed actual -5.2799% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 | |
| 3.3945% | 2.9817% | Signed actual -3.3945% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 | |
| 2.4565% | 2.8866% | Signed actual 2.4565% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 |
Compare entry timing
Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.
Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.
Includes only trades explicitly recorded as passing entry filters. Unknown eligibility and failed-filter runs are excluded; no all-history fallback is applied when none pass. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.
Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.
| Strategy | T−35 | T−34 | T−33 | T−32 | T−31 | T−30 | T−29 | T−28 | T−27 | T−26 | T−25 | T−24 | T−23 | T−22 | T−21 | T−20 | T−19 | T−18 | T−17 | T−16 | T−15 | T−14 | T−13 | T−12 | T−11 | T−10 | T−9 | T−8 | T−7 | T−6 | T−5 | T−4 | T−3 | T−2 | T−1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Bull Put Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Calendar | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | |||||||||||||||
| Iron Condor | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available | ||
| Long Straddle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available | ||||||||||
| Long Strangle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available | ||||||
| Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.
T−14 entry details
| Strategy | Events | Average | Median | Worst observed | Best observed | Did not pass filters / Unknown eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calendar | 2 | -$98.85 | -$98.85 | -$182.60 | -$15.10 | 0 / 0 |
50 unavailable tests at T−14
- SHEL_2023-11-02 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2023-11-02 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2023-11-02 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2023-11-02 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2023-11-02 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2024-02-01 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2024-02-01 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2024-02-01 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2024-02-01 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2024-05-02 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2024-05-02 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2024-05-02 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2024-08-01 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2024-08-01 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2024-08-01 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2024-10-31 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2024-10-31 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2024-10-31 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2024-10-31 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2024-10-31 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2024-10-31 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2025-01-30 · Long Straddle · no constructible legs
- SHEL_2025-01-30 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2025-01-30 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2025-01-30 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2025-01-30 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2025-01-30 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2025-01-30 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2025-05-02 · Checkpoint quotes · no exact underlying session at checkpoint
- SHEL_2025-07-31 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2025-07-31 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2025-10-30 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2025-10-30 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2025-10-30 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2025-10-30 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2025-10-30 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2026-02-05 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2026-02-05 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2026-02-05 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2026-02-05 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2026-02-05 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2026-02-05 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2026-02-05 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2026-05-07 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2026-05-07 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2026-05-07 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2026-07-30 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2026-07-30 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2026-07-30 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SHEL_2026-07-30 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Calendar
Passed entry filters- Modeled entry debit
- $76.2500
- Payoff max loss
- Model dependent
- Payoff max profit
- Model dependent
- Modeled exit P&L
- -$182.60-292.2% on stored risk basis $62.50
Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.
Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.
Entry Jul 16, 2026 → Exit Jul 23, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Different expirations require time and volatility assumptions.
This example spans different expirations. A comparable expiration payoff needs time and volatility assumptions; the exact fills and realized modeled result are below.
Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | SHEL260724C00085000 | $85.00 call · 2026-07-24 | $1.2500 | $3.5000 |
| BUY × 1 | SHEL260807C00087000 | $87.00 call · 2026-08-07 | $2.0125 | $2.4625 |
3451 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_SHEL_7823618e4b53e536 · Historical methodology