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SIRISiriusXM Holdings Inc.

Next verified earnings Oct 29, 2026 · Earnings history

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Past events · reconstructed

Historical reconstruction for SIRI

Observed outcomes from 12 earnings events (Oct 31, 2023 – Jul 30, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.

Historical · past

Realized move versus what was implied

Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.

Implied moves available from Oct 31, 2023; gaps indicate missing quotes.

SIRI · Implied versus actual earnings moveAbsolute realized movement and stored implied move share one scale. Signed actual returns and reconstruction status are preserved in the readout/table. Missing quotes are not zero.

Updated Oct 19, 2026

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

2023-10-31: Realized move: 2.3923% Implied move: 9.8086% Signed actual 2.3923% · Reconstructed · 22 IV checkpoints Updated Oct 19, 2026
Exact data table

SIRI · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles

ObservationRealized move (%)Implied move (%)ContextUpdated
2.3923%9.8086%Signed actual 2.3923% · Reconstructed · 22 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026
2.7505%6.6798%Signed actual 2.7505% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026
7.2553%8.5174%Signed actual -7.2553% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026
6.377%7.6812%Signed actual -6.377% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026
2.6654%6.1884%Signed actual -2.6654% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026
5.8147%4.9908%Signed actual 5.8147% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026
8.9638%5.5556%Signed actual -8.9638% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026
7.8936%8.853%Signed actual -7.8936% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026
10.1141%5.698%Signed actual 10.1141% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026
9.0205%6.6088%Signed actual 9.0205% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026
0.6727%7.0628%Signed actual 0.6727% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026
4.9709%4.9402%Signed actual -4.9709% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026

Compare entry timing

Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.

Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.

14 malformed straddle/strangle examples are excluded from comparison because stored leg metadata does not match the named structure. The original stored historical evidence is preserved.

Includes only trades explicitly recorded as passing entry filters. Unknown eligibility and failed-filter runs are excluded; no all-history fallback is applied when none pass. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.

Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.

StrategyT−35T−34T−33T−32T−31T−30T−29T−28T−27T−26T−25T−24T−23T−22T−21T−20T−19T−18T−17T−16T−15T−14T−13T−12T−11T−10T−9T−8T−7T−6T−5T−4T−3T−2T−1
Bear Call SpreadNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot available
Bull Put SpreadNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot available
CalendarNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot available
Iron CondorNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNot available
Long StraddleNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot available
Long StrangleNo eligible runsNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot available
Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside riskNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot available
Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside riskNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot available

Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.

T−14 entry details

StrategyEventsAverageMedianWorst observedBest observedDid not pass filters / Unknown eligibility
Long Straddle1-$64.35-$64.35-$64.35-$64.350 / 0
Long Strangle1-$42.10-$42.10-$42.10-$42.100 / 0
34 unavailable tests at T−14
  • SIRI_2023-10-31 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2023-10-31 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2023-10-31 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2023-10-31 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2024-02-01 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2024-02-01 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2024-02-01 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2024-04-30 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2024-04-30 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2024-04-30 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2024-04-30 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2024-08-01 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2024-08-01 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2024-08-01 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2025-01-30 · Long Straddle · no constructible legs
  • SIRI_2025-01-30 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2025-01-30 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2025-01-30 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2025-01-30 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2025-05-01 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2025-07-31 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2025-07-31 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2025-10-30 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2026-04-30 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2026-04-30 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2026-04-30 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2026-04-30 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2026-04-30 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2026-04-30 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2026-04-30 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2026-07-30 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2026-07-30 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2026-07-30 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SIRI_2026-07-30 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital

Historical examples

Example trades, payoff and risk

Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.

Long Straddle

Passed entry filters
Modeled entry debit
$178.5000
Payoff max loss
-$178.50
Payoff max profit
Unbounded
Modeled exit P&L
-$64.35-37.2% on stored risk basis $173.00

Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.

Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.

Entry Jul 17, 2025 → Exit Jul 30, 2025. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.

Strategy payoffHistorical example · expiration payoff from exact entry fills (before commissions). Entry spot $23.43. Expiry maximum profit unbounded · Expiry maximum loss -$178.50 · Expiry breakevens $21.715, $25.285. Total position fees $0.00 deducted once. Intrinsic at the common expiration; IV/time never alters expiry P/L. No early exercise, assignment, slippage, dividends or taxes modeled.

Update time unavailable

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

$11.715: Expiration P/L: $1,000.00 Update time unavailable
Event / reference markers
  • Entry spot: $23.43
  • Expiry breakeven $21.715: $21.715
  • Expiry breakeven $25.285: $25.285
  • buy call strike $23.50: $23.50
  • buy put strike $23.50: $23.50
Exact data table

Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles

ObservationExpiration P/L (USD)ContextUpdated
$1,000.00Update time unavailable
$976.57Update time unavailable
$953.14Update time unavailable
$929.71Update time unavailable
$906.28Update time unavailable
$882.85Update time unavailable
$859.42Update time unavailable
$835.99Update time unavailable
$812.56Update time unavailable
$789.13Update time unavailable
$765.70Update time unavailable
$742.27Update time unavailable
$718.84Update time unavailable
$695.41Update time unavailable
$671.98Update time unavailable
$648.55Update time unavailable
$625.12Update time unavailable
$601.69Update time unavailable
$578.26Update time unavailable
$554.83Update time unavailable
$531.40Update time unavailable
$507.97Update time unavailable
$484.54Update time unavailable
$461.11Update time unavailable
$437.68Update time unavailable
$414.25Update time unavailable
$390.82Update time unavailable
$367.39Update time unavailable
$343.96Update time unavailable
$320.53Update time unavailable
$297.10Update time unavailable
$273.67Update time unavailable
$250.24Update time unavailable
$226.81Update time unavailable
$203.38Update time unavailable
$179.95Update time unavailable
$156.52Update time unavailable
$133.09Update time unavailable
$109.66Update time unavailable
$86.23Update time unavailable
$62.80Update time unavailable
$39.37Update time unavailable
$15.94Update time unavailable
$0.00Update time unavailable
-$7.49Update time unavailable
-$30.92Update time unavailable
-$54.35Update time unavailable
-$77.78Update time unavailable
-$101.21Update time unavailable
-$124.64Update time unavailable
-$148.07Update time unavailable
-$171.50Entry spot referenceUpdate time unavailable
-$178.50Update time unavailable
-$162.07Update time unavailable
-$138.64Update time unavailable
-$115.21Update time unavailable
-$91.78Update time unavailable
-$68.35Update time unavailable
-$44.92Update time unavailable
-$21.49Update time unavailable
$0.00Update time unavailable
$1.94Update time unavailable
$25.37Update time unavailable
$48.80Update time unavailable
$72.23Update time unavailable
$95.66Update time unavailable
$119.09Update time unavailable
$142.52Update time unavailable
$165.95Update time unavailable
$189.38Update time unavailable
$212.81Update time unavailable
$236.24Update time unavailable
$259.67Update time unavailable
$283.10Update time unavailable
$306.53Update time unavailable
$329.96Update time unavailable
$353.39Update time unavailable
$376.82Update time unavailable
$400.25Update time unavailable
$423.68Update time unavailable
$447.11Update time unavailable
$470.54Update time unavailable
$493.97Update time unavailable
$517.40Update time unavailable
$540.83Update time unavailable
$564.26Update time unavailable
$587.69Update time unavailable
$611.12Update time unavailable
$634.55Update time unavailable
$657.98Update time unavailable
$681.41Update time unavailable
$704.84Update time unavailable
$728.27Update time unavailable
$751.70Update time unavailable
$775.13Update time unavailable
$798.56Update time unavailable
$821.99Update time unavailable
$845.42Update time unavailable
$868.85Update time unavailable
$892.28Update time unavailable
$915.71Update time unavailable
$939.14Update time unavailable
$962.57Update time unavailable
$986.00Update time unavailable

Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.

Side / quantityContractStrike / expiryEntry fillExit fill
BUY × 1SIRI250801C00023500$23.50 call · 2025-08-01$0.8475$0.3625
BUY × 1SIRI250801P00023500$23.50 put · 2025-08-01$0.9375$0.8050

Breakevens: $21.72 / $25.29. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.

Stored costs: $0.65 / contract / side · slippage 25.0% of spread / fillExample methodology and limitations

3154 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_SIRI_d645b223f4698b84 · Historical methodology