Earnings volatility research
SMMT · Summit Therapeutics Inc.
Next verified earnings in 7 days · Oct 19, 2026 · After close (AMC).
Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts
No reviewed research is available for SMMT yet
Coverage and research availability are separate datasets.
A snapshot may be in progress, awaiting review, or blocked by data-quality gates. Published research appears here once it clears review.
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for SMMT
Observed outcomes from 8 earnings events (May 1, 2024 – Jul 23, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Implied moves available from May 1, 2024; gaps indicate missing quotes.
Updated Oct 12, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Exact data table
SMMT · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5929% | 21.6285% | Signed actual 19.5929% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 4.7429% | 14.9775% | Signed actual -4.7429% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 14.5671% | 7.6729% | Signed actual -14.5671% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 14.8282% | Unavailable | Signed actual -14.8282% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 2.0324% | 12.0282% | Signed actual -2.0324% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 4.5498% | Unavailable | Signed actual -4.5498% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 0.1865% | Unavailable | Signed actual 0.1865% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 8.8117% | Unavailable | Signed actual -8.8117% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 |
Compare entry timing
Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.
Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.
8 malformed straddle/strangle examples are excluded from comparison because stored leg metadata does not match the named structure. The original stored historical evidence is preserved.
Includes trades that failed entry filters; this measures structures, not a history of qualified recommendations. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.
Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.
| Strategy | T−35 | T−34 | T−33 | T−32 | T−31 | T−30 | T−29 | T−28 | T−27 | T−26 | T−25 | T−24 | T−23 | T−22 | T−21 | T−20 | T−19 | T−18 | T−17 | T−16 | T−15 | T−14 | T−13 | T−12 | T−11 | T−10 | T−9 | T−8 | T−7 | T−6 | T−5 | T−4 | T−3 | T−2 | T−1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | |||||||||||||||||||
| Bull Put Spread | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Calendar | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Iron Condor | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Long Straddle | Not available | Not available | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Long Strangle | Not available | Not available | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | Not available | Not available | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | Not available | Not available |
Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.
T−14 entry details
| Strategy | Events | Average | Median | Worst observed | Best observed | Did not pass filters / Unknown eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | 4 | -$104.79 | -$100.10 | -$210.10 | -$8.85 | 4 / 0 |
| Bull Put Spread | 2 | -$33.85 | -$33.85 | -$35.10 | -$32.60 | 2 / 0 |
| Calendar | 1 | -$38.85 | -$38.85 | -$38.85 | -$38.85 | 1 / 0 |
| Iron Condor | 4 | -$199.26 | -$178.33 | -$398.95 | -$41.45 | 4 / 0 |
| Long Straddle | 4 | -$138.85 | -$130.73 | -$260.10 | -$33.85 | 4 / 0 |
| Long Strangle | 6 | -$159.89 | -$123.85 | -$468.85 | -$5.10 | 6 / 0 |
| Short Straddle | 4 | -$26.35 | $33.03 | -$248.85 | $77.40 | 4 / 0 |
| Short Strangle | 6 | -$20.72 | -$37.60 | -$243.85 | $156.15 | 6 / 0 |
32 unavailable tests at T−14
- SMMT_2024-05-01 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2024-05-01 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2024-05-01 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2024-05-01 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2024-05-01 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2024-05-01 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2024-08-06 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2024-08-06 · Calendar · no constructible legs
- SMMT_2024-08-06 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2024-08-06 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2024-08-06 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2024-08-06 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2024-10-30 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2024-10-30 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2024-10-30 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2024-10-30 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2024-10-30 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2024-10-30 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2025-02-24 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2025-02-24 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2025-04-29 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2025-10-20 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2025-10-20 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2026-02-23 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2026-02-23 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2026-02-23 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2026-02-23 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2026-02-23 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2026-02-23 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2026-07-23 · Long Straddle · no constructible legs
- SMMT_2026-07-23 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SMMT_2026-07-23 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Bear Call Spread
Did not clear entry filters- Modeled entry debit
- $190.0000
- Payoff max loss
- -$240.00
- Payoff max profit
- -$190.00
- Modeled exit P&L
- -$210.10-420.2% on stored risk basis $50.00
Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.
Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.
Entry filter failures: directional confirmation missing, historical sample insufficient.
Entry Jul 9, 2026 → Exit Jul 22, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.
Update time unavailable
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Event / reference markers
- Entry spot: $15.48
- sell call strike $15.50: $15.50
- buy call strike $16.00: $16.00
Exact data table
Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Expiration P/L (USD) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$190.00 | Entry spot reference | Update time unavailable | |
| -$190.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$203.48 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$218.96 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$234.44 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$240.00 | Update time unavailable |
Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | SMMT260724C00015500 | $15.50 call · 2026-07-24 | $0.3125 | $0.6375 |
| BUY × 1 | SMMT260724C00016000 | $16.00 call · 2026-07-24 | $2.2125 | $0.4625 |
No breakeven in the modeled price range; net entry debit $190.0000. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.
2339 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_SMMT_6530cf1d2c7ee75d · Historical methodology
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