Earnings volatility research

SMMT · Summit Therapeutics Inc.

Next verified earnings in 7 days · Oct 19, 2026 · After close (AMC).

Research pending
Observed earnings moves8History through Oct 12, 2026
Mean absolute actual move8.7%8 observed events · not a forecast
Actual exceeded priced move25.0%1 of 4 paired observations
Options evidence coverageUnavailableNo stored options snapshot

Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts

My workspace

No reviewed research is available for SMMT yet

Coverage and research availability are separate datasets.

Next verified eventOct 19, 2026 · After close (AMC)
Days to next event7 calendar days
Research window1–35 days before earnings
Why no researchNo snapshot has cleared data-quality and review gates for this event yet
Calendar sourceVerified earnings calendar

A snapshot may be in progress, awaiting review, or blocked by data-quality gates. Published research appears here once it clears review.

Past events · reconstructed

Historical reconstruction for SMMT

Observed outcomes from 8 earnings events (May 1, 2024 – Jul 23, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.

Historical · past

Realized move versus what was implied

Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.

Implied moves available from May 1, 2024; gaps indicate missing quotes.

SMMT · Implied versus actual earnings moveAbsolute realized movement and stored implied move share one scale. Signed actual returns and reconstruction status are preserved in the readout/table. Missing quotes are not zero.

Updated Oct 12, 2026

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

2024-05-01Realized move 19.5929%Implied move 21.6285%Signed actual 19.5929% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 12, 2026
Exact data table

SMMT · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles

ObservationRealized move (%)Implied move (%)ContextUpdated
19.5929%21.6285%Signed actual 19.5929% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 12, 2026
4.7429%14.9775%Signed actual -4.7429% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 12, 2026
14.5671%7.6729%Signed actual -14.5671% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 12, 2026
14.8282%UnavailableSigned actual -14.8282% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 12, 2026
2.0324%12.0282%Signed actual -2.0324% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 12, 2026
4.5498%UnavailableSigned actual -4.5498% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 12, 2026
0.1865%UnavailableSigned actual 0.1865% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 12, 2026
8.8117%UnavailableSigned actual -8.8117% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 12, 2026

Compare entry timing

Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.

Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.

8 malformed straddle/strangle examples are excluded from comparison because stored leg metadata does not match the named structure. The original stored historical evidence is preserved.

Includes trades that failed entry filters; this measures structures, not a history of qualified recommendations. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.

Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.

StrategyT−35T−34T−33T−32T−31T−30T−29T−28T−27T−26T−25T−24T−23T−22T−21T−20T−19T−18T−17T−16T−15T−14T−13T−12T−11T−10T−9T−8T−7T−6T−5T−4T−3T−2T−1
Bear Call SpreadNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot available
Bull Put SpreadNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot available
CalendarNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot available
Iron CondorNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot available
Long StraddleNot availableNot availableNot available
Long StrangleNot availableNot available
Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside riskNot availableNot availableNot available
Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside riskNot availableNot available

Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.

T−14 entry details

StrategyEventsAverageMedianWorst observedBest observedDid not pass filters / Unknown eligibility
Bear Call Spread4-$104.79-$100.10-$210.10-$8.854 / 0
Bull Put Spread2-$33.85-$33.85-$35.10-$32.602 / 0
Calendar1-$38.85-$38.85-$38.85-$38.851 / 0
Iron Condor4-$199.26-$178.33-$398.95-$41.454 / 0
Long Straddle4-$138.85-$130.73-$260.10-$33.854 / 0
Long Strangle6-$159.89-$123.85-$468.85-$5.106 / 0
Short Straddle4-$26.35$33.03-$248.85$77.404 / 0
Short Strangle6-$20.72-$37.60-$243.85$156.156 / 0
32 unavailable tests at T−14
  • SMMT_2024-05-01 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2024-05-01 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2024-05-01 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2024-05-01 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2024-05-01 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2024-05-01 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2024-08-06 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2024-08-06 · Calendar · no constructible legs
  • SMMT_2024-08-06 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2024-08-06 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2024-08-06 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2024-08-06 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2024-10-30 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2024-10-30 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2024-10-30 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2024-10-30 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2024-10-30 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2024-10-30 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2025-02-24 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2025-02-24 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2025-04-29 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2025-10-20 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2025-10-20 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2026-02-23 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2026-02-23 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2026-02-23 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2026-02-23 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2026-02-23 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2026-02-23 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2026-07-23 · Long Straddle · no constructible legs
  • SMMT_2026-07-23 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SMMT_2026-07-23 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital

Historical examples

Example trades, payoff and risk

Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.

Bear Call Spread

Did not clear entry filters
Modeled entry debit
$190.0000
Payoff max loss
-$240.00
Payoff max profit
-$190.00
Modeled exit P&L
-$210.10-420.2% on stored risk basis $50.00

Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.

Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.

Entry filter failures: directional confirmation missing, historical sample insufficient.

Entry Jul 9, 2026 → Exit Jul 22, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.

Strategy payoffHistorical example · expiration payoff from exact entry fills (before commissions). Entry spot $15.48. Expiry maximum profit -$190.00 · Expiry maximum loss -$240.00 · Expiry breakevens none. Total position fees $0.00 deducted once. Intrinsic at the common expiration; IV/time never alters expiry P/L. No early exercise, assignment, slippage, dividends or taxes modeled.

Update time unavailable

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

$7.74Expiration P/L -$190.00Update time unavailable
Event / reference markers
  • Entry spot: $15.48
  • sell call strike $15.50: $15.50
  • buy call strike $16.00: $16.00
Exact data table

Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles

ObservationExpiration P/L (USD)ContextUpdated
-$190.00Update time unavailable
-$190.00Update time unavailable
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-$190.00Entry spot referenceUpdate time unavailable
-$190.00Update time unavailable
-$203.48Update time unavailable
-$218.96Update time unavailable
-$234.44Update time unavailable
-$240.00Update time unavailable
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Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.

Side / quantityContractStrike / expiryEntry fillExit fill
SELL × 1SMMT260724C00015500$15.50 call · 2026-07-24$0.3125$0.6375
BUY × 1SMMT260724C00016000$16.00 call · 2026-07-24$2.2125$0.4625

No breakeven in the modeled price range; net entry debit $190.0000. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.

Stored costs: $0.65 / contract / side · slippage 25.0% of spread / fillExample methodology and limitations

2339 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_SMMT_6530cf1d2c7ee75d · Historical methodology

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