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TSCOTractor Supply Company
Next verified earnings Oct 22, 2026 · Earnings history
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for TSCO
Observed outcomes from 12 earnings events (Oct 26, 2023 – Jul 23, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Implied moves available from Oct 26, 2023; gaps indicate missing quotes.
Updated Oct 13, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Exact data table
TSCO · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.6853% | 6.2099% | Signed actual -4.6853% · Reconstructed · 19 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 4.586% | 5.1425% | Signed actual 4.586% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 2.7622% | 4.5132% | Signed actual 2.7622% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 1.9351% | 5.1044% | Signed actual -1.9351% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 6.094% | 4.3822% | Signed actual -6.094% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 5.021% | 6.6917% | Signed actual -5.021% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 3.4101% | 5.6673% | Signed actual -3.4101% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 0.4696% | 5.0738% | Signed actual -0.4696% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 2.7721% | 4.9699% | Signed actual 2.7721% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 7.5806% | 4.8513% | Signed actual -7.5806% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 11.6937% | 9.8192% | Signed actual -11.6937% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 3.2697% | 6.3862% | Signed actual 3.2697% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 |
Compare entry timing
Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.
Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.
Includes only trades explicitly recorded as passing entry filters. Unknown eligibility and failed-filter runs are excluded; no all-history fallback is applied when none pass. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.
Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.
| Strategy | T−35 | T−34 | T−33 | T−32 | T−31 | T−30 | T−29 | T−28 | T−27 | T−26 | T−25 | T−24 | T−23 | T−22 | T−21 | T−20 | T−19 | T−18 | T−17 | T−16 | T−15 | T−14 | T−13 | T−12 | T−11 | T−10 | T−9 | T−8 | T−7 | T−6 | T−5 | T−4 | T−3 | T−2 | T−1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Bull Put Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Calendar | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | |
| Iron Condor | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | |||
| Long Straddle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | ||
| Long Strangle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | |
| Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.
T−14 entry details
| Strategy | Events | Average | Median | Worst observed | Best observed | Did not pass filters / Unknown eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Condor | 1 | -$71.45 | -$71.45 | -$71.45 | -$71.45 | 0 / 0 |
28 unavailable tests at T−14
- TSCO_2024-04-25 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- TSCO_2024-04-25 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- TSCO_2024-07-25 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- TSCO_2024-07-25 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- TSCO_2024-10-24 · Long Straddle · no constructible legs
- TSCO_2024-10-24 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- TSCO_2024-10-24 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- TSCO_2025-01-30 · Long Straddle · no constructible legs
- TSCO_2025-01-30 · Long Strangle · no constructible legs
- TSCO_2025-01-30 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- TSCO_2025-01-30 · Iron Condor · no constructible legs
- TSCO_2025-01-30 · Bull Put Spread · no constructible legs
- TSCO_2025-01-30 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- TSCO_2025-04-24 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- TSCO_2025-04-24 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- TSCO_2025-04-24 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- TSCO_2025-04-24 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- TSCO_2025-07-24 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- TSCO_2025-07-24 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- TSCO_2025-07-24 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- TSCO_2025-07-24 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- TSCO_2025-10-23 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- TSCO_2025-10-23 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- TSCO_2025-10-23 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- TSCO_2025-10-23 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- TSCO_2026-01-29 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- TSCO_2026-01-29 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- TSCO_2026-04-21 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Iron Condor
Passed entry filters- Modeled entry credit
- $52.5000
- Payoff max loss
- -$247.50
- Payoff max profit
- $52.50
- Modeled exit P&L
- -$71.45-33.2% on stored risk basis $215.00
Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.
Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.
Entry Apr 7, 2026 → Exit Apr 20, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.
Update time unavailable
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Event / reference markers
- Entry spot: $43.64
- Expiry breakeven $40.475: $40.475
- Expiry breakeven $46.525: $46.525
- sell put strike $41.00: $41.00
- buy put strike $38.00: $38.00
- sell call strike $46.00: $46.00
- buy call strike $49.00: $49.00
Exact data table
Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Expiration P/L (USD) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$207.18 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$163.54 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$119.90 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$76.26 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$32.62 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $0.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $11.02 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $52.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $52.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $52.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $52.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $52.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $52.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $52.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $52.50 | Entry spot reference | Update time unavailable | |
| $52.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $52.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $52.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $52.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $52.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $52.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $26.66 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $0.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$16.98 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$60.62 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$104.26 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$147.90 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$191.54 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$235.18 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$247.50 | Update time unavailable |
Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | TSCO260424P00041000 | $41.00 put · 2026-04-24 | $0.6750 | $0.3250 |
| BUY × 1 | TSCO260424P00038000 | $38.00 put · 2026-04-24 | $0.5000 | $0.0250 |
| SELL × 1 | TSCO260424C00046000 | $46.00 call · 2026-04-24 | $0.6875 | $1.0625 |
| BUY × 1 | TSCO260424C00049000 | $49.00 call · 2026-04-24 | $0.3375 | $0.1750 |
Breakevens: $40.48 / $46.53. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.
3039 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_TSCO_5c85ba50db342b84 · Historical methodology