Options WhaleEarnings volatility research

Earnings volatility research · Nov 11, 2026

CRCL · Circle Internet Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock

$80.84 · Earnings in 34 days — Before open (BMO) · Updated after Oct 7, 2026 market close

Awaiting review
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Observed earnings moves5History through Oct 8, 2026
Mean absolute actual move13.0%5 observed events · not a forecast
Actual exceeded priced move25.0%1 of 4 paired observations
Options evidence coverage203Valid contracts · snapshot Oct 7, 2026

Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts

Setup summary

A snapshot exists but has not cleared research review for publication.

At snapshot: T-35
VolatilityUnknown
Event IV deviationUnavailablevs T-35 median
Implied moveOverpriced
Current implied move±17.8%
Median actual move12.2%n=5
Term structureFlat
LiquidityAcceptable
Primary setupNo setupAwaiting review
Secondary candidatesNone
Sample qualityLowFewer than 4 reconstructed events.

Why this matters

Event-relative volatility comparison is unavailable for this snapshot. The ATM straddle implies a ±17.8% move — 1.46x the historical median actual move.

No current candidate is available for this ticker.

Unknown event volatility; acceptable liquidity. Historical evidence quality is low (fewer than 4 reconstructed events.) and the sample covers exact-contract reconstructions, not live published recommendations.

Current implied volatility versus prior earnings cycles

No matched historical checkpoint is available for this snapshot.

Pre-earnings IV curveStored ATM IV checkpoints and historical interquartile band. Null checkpoints are gaps, not interpolated quotes. A single current snapshot is not a current-cycle curve.

Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

T−35Current IV 70.225%Historical median UnavailableHistorical p25 UnavailableHistorical p75 Unavailable0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Event / reference markers
  • Earnings: 0
Exact data table
Pre-earnings IV curve · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
ObservationCurrent IV (%)Historical median (%)Historical p25 (%)Historical p75 (%)ContextUpdated
70.225%UnavailableUnavailableUnavailable0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
UnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable0 historical events; absent values remain unavailable.Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Expected move and historical earnings behavior

ATM_STRADDLE_MIDPOINT · event expiration Nov 13, 2026 · Oct 7, 2026 market close

Overpriced
Implied versus actual earnings moveAbsolute realized movement and stored implied move share one scale. Signed actual returns and reconstruction status are preserved in the readout/table. Missing quotes are not zero.

Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

2025-08-12Realized move 1.2657%Implied move UnavailableSigned actual 1.2657% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Exact data table
Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
ObservationRealized move (%)Implied move (%)ContextUpdated
1.2657%UnavailableSigned actual 1.2657% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
12.2075%UnavailableSigned actual 12.2075% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
35.4734%UnavailableSigned actual 35.4734% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
15.9145%UnavailableSigned actual 15.9145% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
0.0474%UnavailableSigned actual 0.0474% · Reconstruction status unavailable · 0 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Implied move±17.8%
Implied dollar move$14.40
Lower / upper boundary$66.44 / $95.24
Historical median absolute12.2%
Events exceeding implied0 / 0
Move richness1.46x
Historical sample5 events · Low quality

Implied observations come from the earnings expiration at the stored snapshot; realized moves use the absolute post-earnings session return. Missing implied quotes remain gaps — they are never treated as zero moves, and exceedance counts use only paired observations.

Volatility term structure

The earnings expiration trades 1.6 volatility points above the next expiration. Classification: Flat.

Volatility term structureATM IV by stored expiration. Earnings-containing expirations are marked; missing IV stays unavailable. Expiry spacing reflects DTE, not equal calendar spacing.

Updated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

2026-11-06ATM IV 67.65%30 DTE · ATM strike $81.00 · No stored earnings markerUpdated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Event / reference markers
  • Earnings expiry 2026-11-13: 37
Exact data table
Volatility term structure · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
ObservationATM IV (%)ContextUpdated
67.65%30 DTE · ATM strike $81.00 · No stored earnings markerUpdated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
70.225%37 DTE · ATM strike $81.00 · Contains earningsUpdated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
70.22%44 DTE · ATM strike $80.00 · No stored earnings markerUpdated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
68.675%72 DTE · ATM strike $80.00 · No stored earnings markerUpdated Oct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

Eligible candidates

Only structures that passed every applicable gate are shown.

0 eligible

No current candidate is available for this ticker. Verified event facts and observed history remain below.

No attractive setup detected

The event was evaluated and no candidate cleared every filter. That is a valid research outcome.

  • Term structure is not unusual around the event.
  • Directional confirmation is missing for directional structures.

Comparable CRCL earnings events

Rebuilt from observed quotes after each event — reconstruction evidence, not proof of a live historical publication.

Scroll horizontally to see every column.

Earnings dateActual moveImplied moveReconstruction basisStrategy outcomes
Aug 12, 20251.3%UnavailableSame Ticker Reconstruction—
Nov 12, 2025-12.2%UnavailableSame Ticker Reconstruction—
Feb 25, 202635.5%UnavailableSame Ticker Reconstruction—
May 11, 202615.9%UnavailableSame Ticker Reconstruction—
Aug 5, 20260.0%UnavailableSame Ticker Reconstruction—

How this was generated

Inputs, assumptions, and versions that produced the numbers above.

Research methodology details

Expand for timestamps, sample sizes, models, and provenance

Expand
Market data timestampOct 7, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Snapshot dateOct 7, 2026
Historical sample5 events · Low quality
Event checkpointsT-35, T-28, T-21, T-14, T-7, T-3, T-1, T+1
Slippage model25% of quoted spread per fill
Commission$0.65 per contract per side
Missing contractsNever imputed
Dataset statusVALID
PublishableYes
Hard errors0
Warnings0
Checks passed10/10
Market dataLicensed market data
Earnings datesVerified public earnings calendar
Engine versionsbacktest 0.2.0 · features 0.3.0 · selector 0.2.0 · classifier 0.2.0 · llm_prompt 0.1.0 · configuration 0.2.0
Research IDres_CRCL_2026-10-07_bbcb48f549d7

Risk record

  • Earnings dates can move after this snapshot was captured.
  • Bid/ask midpoint fills may not be achievable in live trading.
  • Historical reconstruction uses current methodology and is not proof of a live historical publication.

Research methodology and definitions

Primary candidate construction

Exact legs, exposure and payoff for the primary eligible structure.

No current candidate is available for this ticker. Browse available research.

Past events · reconstructed

Historical reconstruction for CRCL

Observed outcomes from 5 earnings events (Aug 12, 2025 – Aug 5, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.

Historical · past

Realized move versus what was implied

Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.

CRCL · Implied versus actual earnings moveAbsolute realized movement and stored implied move share one scale. Signed actual returns and reconstruction status are preserved in the readout/table. Missing quotes are not zero.

Updated Oct 8, 2026

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

2025-08-12Realized move 1.2657%Implied move 11.6492%Signed actual 1.2657% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 8, 2026
Exact data table
CRCL · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
ObservationRealized move (%)Implied move (%)ContextUpdated
1.2657%11.6492%Signed actual 1.2657% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 8, 2026
12.2075%12.7416%Signed actual -12.2075% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 8, 2026
35.4734%10.3226%Signed actual 35.4734% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 8, 2026
15.9145%UnavailableSigned actual 15.9145% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 8, 2026
0.0474%12.3715%Signed actual 0.0474% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 8, 2026

Exact-contract strategy reconstruction

StructureReconstructed runsProfitableAverage return on max lossBestWorst
Bear Call Spread51 / 5-13.9%6.4%-32.3%
Long Straddle52 / 5-8.0%20.3%-44.0%
Long Strangle52 / 5-15.1%33.1%-70.7%
Bull Put Spread42 / 4-2.1%31.6%-43.4%
Iron Condor41 / 4-15.2%8.3%-42.4%
Calendar32 / 3-4.4%44.9%-63.4%

Historical examples

Example trades, payoff and risk

Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.

Bear Call Spread

Did not clear entry filters
Modeled entry credit
$17.00
Payoff max loss
-$283.00
Payoff max profit
$17.00
Modeled exit P&L
-$4.10-1.6% on stored risk basis $260.00

Entry Jul 22, 2026 → Exit Aug 4, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.

Strategy payoffHistorical example · expiration payoff (before commissions). Entry spot $66.16. Expiry maximum profit $17.00 · Expiry maximum loss -$283.00 · Expiry breakevens $79.17. Total position fees $0.00 deducted once. Intrinsic at the common expiration; IV/time never alters expiry P/L. No early exercise, assignment, slippage, dividends or taxes modeled.

Update time unavailable

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

$33.08Expiration P/L $17.00Update time unavailable
Event / reference markers
  • Entry spot: $66.16
  • Expiry breakeven $79.17: $79.17
  • sell call strike $79.00: $79.00
  • buy call strike $82.00: $82.00
Exact data table
Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
ObservationExpiration P/L (USD)ContextUpdated
$17.00Update time unavailable
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Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share
Side / quantityContractStrike / expiryEntry fillExit fill
SELL × 1CRCL260807C00079000$79.00 call · 2026-08-07$1.99$0.49
BUY × 1CRCL260807C00082000$82.00 call · 2026-08-07$1.83$0.30

Breakevens: $79.17. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.

Stored costs: $0.65 / contract / side · slippage 25.0% of spread / fillExample methodology and limitations

5 quote gaps · Record hist_CRCL_81b5a84489ba3536 · Historical methodology

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