Company research workspace
CRCLCircle Internet Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock
Next verified earnings Nov 11, 2026 · Earnings history
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for CRCL
Observed outcomes from 5 earnings events (Aug 12, 2025 – Aug 5, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Updated Oct 8, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
2025-08-12Realized move 1.2657%Implied move 11.6492%Signed actual 1.2657% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 8, 2026
Exact data table
CRCL · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2657% | 11.6492% | Signed actual 1.2657% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 12.2075% | 12.7416% | Signed actual -12.2075% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 35.4734% | 10.3226% | Signed actual 35.4734% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 15.9145% | Unavailable | Signed actual 15.9145% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 | |
| 0.0474% | 12.3715% | Signed actual 0.0474% · Reconstructed · 7 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 8, 2026 |
Exact-contract strategy reconstruction
| Structure | Reconstructed runs | Profitable | Average return on max loss | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | 5 | 1 / 5 | -13.9% | 6.4% | -32.3% |
| Long Straddle | 5 | 2 / 5 | -8.0% | 20.3% | -44.0% |
| Long Strangle | 5 | 2 / 5 | -15.1% | 33.1% | -70.7% |
| Bull Put Spread | 4 | 2 / 4 | -2.1% | 31.6% | -43.4% |
| Iron Condor | 4 | 1 / 4 | -15.2% | 8.3% | -42.4% |
| Calendar | 3 | 2 / 3 | -4.4% | 44.9% | -63.4% |
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Bear Call Spread
Did not clear entry filters- Modeled entry credit
- $17.00
- Payoff max loss
- -$283.00
- Payoff max profit
- $17.00
- Modeled exit P&L
- -$4.10-1.6% on stored risk basis $260.00
Entry Jul 22, 2026 → Exit Aug 4, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.
Update time unavailable
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
$33.08Expiration P/L $17.00Update time unavailable
Event / reference markers
- Entry spot: $66.16
- Expiry breakeven $79.17: $79.17
- sell call strike $79.00: $79.00
- buy call strike $82.00: $82.00
Exact data table
Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Expiration P/L (USD) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Entry spot reference | Update time unavailable | |
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $17.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$0.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$22.20 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$88.36 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$154.52 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$220.68 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$283.00 | Update time unavailable |
Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | CRCL260807C00079000 | $79.00 call · 2026-08-07 | $1.99 | $0.49 |
| BUY × 1 | CRCL260807C00082000 | $82.00 call · 2026-08-07 | $1.83 | $0.30 |
Breakevens: $79.17. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.
Stored costs: $0.65 / contract / side · slippage 25.0% of spread / fillExample methodology and limitations
5 quote gaps · Record hist_CRCL_81b5a84489ba3536 · Historical methodology