Earnings volatility research
FLEX · Flex Ltd.
Next verified earnings in 12 days · Oct 28, 2026 · Before open (BMO).
- Observed earnings moves:
- 12 History through Oct 15, 2026
- Mean absolute actual move:
- 9.2% 12 observed events · not a forecast
- Actual exceeded priced move:
- 25.0% 3 of 12 paired observations
- Options evidence coverage:
- Unavailable No stored options snapshot
Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts
No reviewed research is available for FLEX yet
Coverage and research availability are separate datasets.
A snapshot may be in progress, awaiting review, or blocked by data-quality gates. Published research appears here once it clears review.
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for FLEX
Observed outcomes from 12 earnings events (Oct 25, 2023 – Jul 29, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Implied moves available from Oct 25, 2023; gaps indicate missing quotes.
Updated Oct 15, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Exact data table
FLEX · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.982% | 8.6026% | Signed actual 10.982% · Reconstructed · 18 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 15, 2026 | |
| 5.476% | 35.6846% | Signed actual 5.476% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 15, 2026 | |
| 8.0628% | 9.5113% | Signed actual -8.0628% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 15, 2026 | |
| 6.8641% | 31.7127% | Signed actual 6.8641% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 15, 2026 | |
| 3.2016% | 9.3741% | Signed actual 3.2016% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 15, 2026 | |
| 2.2666% | 10.4706% | Signed actual 2.2666% · Reconstructed · 22 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 15, 2026 | |
| 3.2091% | 5.6432% | Signed actual 3.2091% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 15, 2026 | |
| 7.6766% | 9.2937% | Signed actual -7.6766% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 15, 2026 | |
| 2.8634% | 12.0604% | Signed actual 2.8634% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 15, 2026 | |
| 10.8501% | 9.7742% | Signed actual -10.8501% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 15, 2026 | |
| 39.689% | 10.0446% | Signed actual 39.689% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 15, 2026 | |
| 9.0572% | 19.8181% | Signed actual -9.0572% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 15, 2026 |
Compare entry timing
Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.
Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.
Includes only trades explicitly recorded as passing entry filters. Unknown eligibility and failed-filter runs are excluded; no all-history fallback is applied when none pass. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.
Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.
| Strategy | T−35 | T−34 | T−33 | T−32 | T−31 | T−30 | T−29 | T−28 | T−27 | T−26 | T−25 | T−24 | T−23 | T−22 | T−21 | T−20 | T−19 | T−18 | T−17 | T−16 | T−15 | T−14 | T−13 | T−12 | T−11 | T−10 | T−9 | T−8 | T−7 | T−6 | T−5 | T−4 | T−3 | T−2 | T−1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Bull Put Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Calendar | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | ||||||||
| Iron Condor | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | |||||||||||||
| Long Straddle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | |||||||||||||||||
| Long Strangle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | |||||||
| Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.
T−14 entry details
| Strategy | Events | Average | Median | Worst observed | Best observed | Did not pass filters / Unknown eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Condor | 2 | -$45.83 | -$45.83 | -$62.70 | -$28.95 | 0 / 0 |
| Long Straddle | 2 | -$68.85 | -$68.85 | -$92.60 | -$45.10 | 0 / 0 |
| Long Strangle | 1 | -$10.10 | -$10.10 | -$10.10 | -$10.10 | 0 / 0 |
21 unavailable tests at T−14
- FLEX_2023-10-25 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- FLEX_2023-10-25 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- FLEX_2023-10-25 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- FLEX_2023-10-25 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- FLEX_2023-10-25 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- FLEX_2024-01-31 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- FLEX_2024-01-31 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- FLEX_2024-01-31 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- FLEX_2024-01-31 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- FLEX_2024-10-30 · Long Straddle · no constructible legs
- FLEX_2024-10-30 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- FLEX_2024-10-30 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- FLEX_2024-10-30 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- FLEX_2024-10-30 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- FLEX_2024-10-30 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- FLEX_2024-10-30 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- FLEX_2025-01-29 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- FLEX_2025-05-07 · Calendar · no constructible legs
- FLEX_2025-07-24 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- FLEX_2026-02-04 · Calendar · no constructible legs
- FLEX_2026-05-05 · Calendar · no constructible legs
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Iron Condor
Passed entry filters- Modeled entry credit
- $153.7500
- Payoff max loss
- -$346.25
- Payoff max profit
- $153.75
- Modeled exit P&L
- -$28.95-10.2% on stored risk basis $282.50
Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.
Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.
Entry Oct 15, 2025 → Exit Oct 28, 2025. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.
Update time unavailable
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Event / reference markers
- Entry spot: $63.60
- Expiry breakeven $58.4625: $58.4625
- Expiry breakeven $71.5375: $71.5375
- sell put strike $60.00: $60.00
- buy put strike $55.00: $55.00
- sell call strike $70.00: $70.00
- buy call strike $75.00: $75.00
Exact data table
Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Expiration P/L (USD) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$313.05 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$249.45 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$185.85 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$122.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$58.65 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$0.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $4.95 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $68.55 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $132.15 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $153.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $153.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $153.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $153.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $153.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $153.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $153.75 | Entry spot reference | Update time unavailable | |
| $153.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $153.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $153.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $153.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $153.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $153.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $153.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $153.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $153.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $153.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $153.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $153.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $94.15 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $30.55 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $0.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$33.05 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$96.65 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$160.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$223.85 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$287.45 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$346.25 | Update time unavailable |
Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | FLEX251121P00060000 | $60.00 put · 2025-11-21 | $1.8500 | $1.7000 |
| BUY × 1 | FLEX251121P00055000 | $55.00 put · 2025-11-21 | $1.1375 | $0.4750 |
| SELL × 1 | FLEX251121C00070000 | $70.00 call · 2025-11-21 | $1.3625 | $1.5875 |
| BUY × 1 | FLEX251121C00075000 | $75.00 call · 2025-11-21 | $0.5375 | $1.0375 |
Breakevens: $58.46 / $71.54. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.
2995 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_FLEX_90982b8149482624 · Historical methodology
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