Earnings volatility research
HWM · Howmet Aerospace Inc. Common Stock
Next verified earnings in 11 days · Oct 29, 2026 · Before open (BMO).
- Observed earnings moves:
- 12 History through Oct 17, 2026
- Mean absolute actual move:
- 6.8% 12 observed events · not a forecast
- Actual exceeded priced move:
- 50.0% 6 of 12 paired observations
- Options evidence coverage:
- Unavailable No stored options snapshot
Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts
No reviewed research is available for HWM yet
Coverage and research availability are separate datasets.
A snapshot may be in progress, awaiting review, or blocked by data-quality gates. Published research appears here once it clears review.
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for HWM
Observed outcomes from 12 earnings events (Nov 2, 2023 – Aug 6, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Implied moves available from Nov 2, 2023; gaps indicate missing quotes.
Updated Oct 17, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Exact data table
HWM · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8935% | 5.4785% | Signed actual 7.8935% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 | |
| 5.3543% | 4.717% | Signed actual 5.3543% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 | |
| 15.4537% | 5.9898% | Signed actual 15.4537% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 | |
| 13.2287% | 8.2076% | Signed actual 13.2287% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 | |
| 12.4315% | 9.4949% | Signed actual 12.4315% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 | |
| 0.0078% | 8.1193% | Signed actual -0.0078% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 | |
| 6.8192% | 7.7933% | Signed actual 6.8192% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 | |
| 6.438% | 6.5577% | Signed actual -6.438% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 | |
| 0.8404% | 6.7083% | Signed actual -0.8404% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 | |
| 6.0385% | 5.9996% | Signed actual 6.0385% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 | |
| 6.2824% | 7% | Signed actual 6.2824% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 | |
| 0.5834% | 6.0566% | Signed actual -0.5834% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 17, 2026 |
Compare entry timing
Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.
Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.
Includes only trades explicitly recorded as passing entry filters. Unknown eligibility and failed-filter runs are excluded; no all-history fallback is applied when none pass. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.
Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.
| Strategy | T−35 | T−34 | T−33 | T−32 | T−31 | T−30 | T−29 | T−28 | T−27 | T−26 | T−25 | T−24 | T−23 | T−22 | T−21 | T−20 | T−19 | T−18 | T−17 | T−16 | T−15 | T−14 | T−13 | T−12 | T−11 | T−10 | T−9 | T−8 | T−7 | T−6 | T−5 | T−4 | T−3 | T−2 | T−1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Bull Put Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Calendar | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | |||||
| Iron Condor | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Long Straddle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | |
| Long Strangle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | |
| Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.
T−14 entry details
No stored results for this entry, exit rule and entry sample. Volatility observations alone do not establish trade performance.
28 unavailable tests at T−14
- HWM_2023-11-02 · Calendar · missing exit trading session
- HWM_2023-11-02 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- HWM_2023-11-02 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- HWM_2024-02-13 · Calendar · no constructible legs
- HWM_2024-02-13 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- HWM_2024-02-13 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- HWM_2024-02-13 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- HWM_2024-05-02 · Calendar · missing exit trading session
- HWM_2024-05-02 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- HWM_2024-05-02 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- HWM_2024-07-30 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- HWM_2024-11-06 · Calendar · no constructible legs
- HWM_2025-05-01 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- HWM_2025-05-01 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- HWM_2025-05-01 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- HWM_2025-05-01 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- HWM_2025-05-01 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- HWM_2025-05-01 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- HWM_2025-07-31 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- HWM_2025-10-30 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- HWM_2025-10-30 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- HWM_2026-02-12 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- HWM_2026-02-12 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- HWM_2026-05-07 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- HWM_2026-05-07 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- HWM_2026-05-07 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- HWM_2026-05-07 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- HWM_2026-05-07 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
2958 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_HWM_6d99e2ac81b778c0 · Historical methodology
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