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ISRGIntuitive Surgical, Inc.
Next verified earnings Oct 20, 2026 · Earnings history
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for ISRG
Observed outcomes from 12 earnings events (Oct 19, 2023 – Jul 16, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Implied moves available from Oct 19, 2023; gaps indicate missing quotes.
Updated Oct 12, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Exact data table
ISRG · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.3917% | 6.7509% | Signed actual -2.3917% · Reconstructed · 14 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 0.3608% | 5.5214% | Signed actual -0.3608% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 1.688% | 5.9064% | Signed actual -1.688% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 9.3406% | 5.1381% | Signed actual 9.3406% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 10.0099% | 5.4554% | Signed actual 10.0099% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 4.0433% | 5.3403% | Signed actual -4.0433% · Reconstructed · 22 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 1.9196% | 8.2316% | Signed actual 1.9196% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 1.771% | 6.7426% | Signed actual -1.771% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 13.8933% | 7.4378% | Signed actual 13.8933% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 0.3461% | 5.5185% | Signed actual -0.3461% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 7.1639% | 6.8514% | Signed actual 7.1639% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 14.1451% | 7.6227% | Signed actual -14.1451% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 |
Compare entry timing
Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.
Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.
Includes trades that failed entry filters; this measures structures, not a history of qualified recommendations. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.
Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.
| Strategy | T−35 | T−34 | T−33 | T−32 | T−31 | T−30 | T−29 | T−28 | T−27 | T−26 | T−25 | T−24 | T−23 | T−22 | T−21 | T−20 | T−19 | T−18 | T−17 | T−16 | T−15 | T−14 | T−13 | T−12 | T−11 | T−10 | T−9 | T−8 | T−7 | T−6 | T−5 | T−4 | T−3 | T−2 | T−1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bull Put Spread | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Calendar | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Iron Condor | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Long Straddle | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Long Strangle | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | Not available |
Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.
T−14 entry details
| Strategy | Events | Average | Median | Worst observed | Best observed | Did not pass filters / Unknown eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | 9 | -$69.68 | $31.15 | -$792.60 | $338.65 | 9 / 0 |
| Bull Put Spread | 9 | -$424.54 | -$262.60 | -$2,117.60 | $258.65 | 9 / 0 |
| Calendar | 4 | -$78.23 | -$61.35 | -$610.10 | $419.90 | 4 / 0 |
| Iron Condor | 8 | -$192.23 | -$106.45 | -$715.20 | $52.30 | 6 / 0 |
| Long Straddle | 8 | -$97.91 | -$342.60 | -$990.10 | $1,889.90 | 8 / 0 |
| Long Strangle | 9 | -$132.46 | -$276.35 | -$1,125.10 | $1,292.40 | 9 / 0 |
| Short Straddle | 8 | -$299.16 | -$28.85 | -$2,300.10 | $637.40 | 8 / 0 |
| Short Strangle | 9 | -$168.57 | $124.90 | -$1,597.60 | $624.90 | 9 / 0 |
18 unavailable tests at T−14
- ISRG_2023-10-19 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- ISRG_2024-01-23 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- ISRG_2024-01-23 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- ISRG_2024-07-18 · Checkpoint quotes · no exact underlying session at checkpoint
- ISRG_2025-01-23 · Checkpoint quotes · no exact underlying session at checkpoint
- ISRG_2025-04-22 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- ISRG_2025-04-22 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- ISRG_2025-04-22 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- ISRG_2025-07-22 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- ISRG_2026-01-22 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- ISRG_2026-01-22 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- ISRG_2026-01-22 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- ISRG_2026-01-22 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- ISRG_2026-01-22 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- ISRG_2026-01-22 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- ISRG_2026-01-22 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- ISRG_2026-04-21 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- ISRG_2026-07-16 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Bear Call Spread
Did not clear entry filters- Modeled entry credit
- $335.0000
- Payoff max loss
- -$1,665.00
- Payoff max profit
- $335.00
- Modeled exit P&L
- $338.6521.7% on stored risk basis $1,560.00
Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.
Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.
Entry filter failures: directional confirmation missing.
Entry Jul 2, 2026 → Exit Jul 15, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.
Update time unavailable
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Event / reference markers
- Entry spot: $426.01
- Expiry breakeven $463.35: $463.35
- sell call strike $460.00: $460.00
- buy call strike $480.00: $480.00
Exact data table
Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Expiration P/L (USD) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Entry spot reference | Update time unavailable | |
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $335.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $325.92 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$0.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$100.09 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$526.10 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$952.11 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,378.12 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$1,665.00 | Update time unavailable |
Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | ISRG260717C00460000 | $460.00 call · 2026-07-17 | $6.7000 | $0.6375 |
| BUY × 1 | ISRG260717C00480000 | $480.00 call · 2026-07-17 | $3.3500 | $0.7000 |
Breakevens: $463.35. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.
2648 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_ISRG_262f9057e1b956d5 · Historical methodology