Earnings volatility research

ISRG · Intuitive Surgical, Inc.

Next verified earnings in 8 days · Oct 20, 2026 · After close (AMC).

Research pending
Observed earnings moves12History through Oct 12, 2026
Mean absolute actual move5.6%12 observed events · not a forecast
Actual exceeded priced move41.7%5 of 12 paired observations
Options evidence coverageUnavailableNo stored options snapshot

Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts

My workspace

No reviewed research is available for ISRG yet

Coverage and research availability are separate datasets.

Next verified eventOct 20, 2026 · After close (AMC)
Days to next event8 calendar days
Research window1–35 days before earnings
Why no researchNo snapshot has cleared data-quality and review gates for this event yet
Calendar sourceVerified earnings calendar

A snapshot may be in progress, awaiting review, or blocked by data-quality gates. Published research appears here once it clears review.

Past events · reconstructed

Historical reconstruction for ISRG

Observed outcomes from 12 earnings events (Oct 19, 2023 – Jul 16, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.

Historical · past

Realized move versus what was implied

Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.

Implied moves available from Oct 19, 2023; gaps indicate missing quotes.

ISRG · Implied versus actual earnings moveAbsolute realized movement and stored implied move share one scale. Signed actual returns and reconstruction status are preserved in the readout/table. Missing quotes are not zero.

Updated Oct 12, 2026

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

2023-10-19Realized move 2.3917%Implied move 6.7509%Signed actual -2.3917% · Reconstructed · 14 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 12, 2026
Exact data table

ISRG · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles

ObservationRealized move (%)Implied move (%)ContextUpdated
2.3917%6.7509%Signed actual -2.3917% · Reconstructed · 14 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 12, 2026
0.3608%5.5214%Signed actual -0.3608% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 12, 2026
1.688%5.9064%Signed actual -1.688% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 12, 2026
9.3406%5.1381%Signed actual 9.3406% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 12, 2026
10.0099%5.4554%Signed actual 10.0099% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 12, 2026
4.0433%5.3403%Signed actual -4.0433% · Reconstructed · 22 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 12, 2026
1.9196%8.2316%Signed actual 1.9196% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 12, 2026
1.771%6.7426%Signed actual -1.771% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 12, 2026
13.8933%7.4378%Signed actual 13.8933% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 12, 2026
0.3461%5.5185%Signed actual -0.3461% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 12, 2026
7.1639%6.8514%Signed actual 7.1639% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 12, 2026
14.1451%7.6227%Signed actual -14.1451% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 12, 2026

Compare entry timing

Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.

Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.

Includes trades that failed entry filters; this measures structures, not a history of qualified recommendations. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.

Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.

StrategyT−35T−34T−33T−32T−31T−30T−29T−28T−27T−26T−25T−24T−23T−22T−21T−20T−19T−18T−17T−16T−15T−14T−13T−12T−11T−10T−9T−8T−7T−6T−5T−4T−3T−2T−1
Bear Call SpreadNot available
Bull Put SpreadNot available
CalendarNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot available
Iron CondorNot available
Long StraddleNot available
Long StrangleNot available
Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside riskNot available
Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside riskNot available

Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.

T−14 entry details

StrategyEventsAverageMedianWorst observedBest observedDid not pass filters / Unknown eligibility
Bear Call Spread9-$69.68$31.15-$792.60$338.659 / 0
Bull Put Spread9-$424.54-$262.60-$2,117.60$258.659 / 0
Calendar4-$78.23-$61.35-$610.10$419.904 / 0
Iron Condor8-$192.23-$106.45-$715.20$52.306 / 0
Long Straddle8-$97.91-$342.60-$990.10$1,889.908 / 0
Long Strangle9-$132.46-$276.35-$1,125.10$1,292.409 / 0
Short Straddle8-$299.16-$28.85-$2,300.10$637.408 / 0
Short Strangle9-$168.57$124.90-$1,597.60$624.909 / 0
18 unavailable tests at T−14
  • ISRG_2023-10-19 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ISRG_2024-01-23 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ISRG_2024-01-23 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ISRG_2024-07-18 · Checkpoint quotes · no exact underlying session at checkpoint
  • ISRG_2025-01-23 · Checkpoint quotes · no exact underlying session at checkpoint
  • ISRG_2025-04-22 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ISRG_2025-04-22 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ISRG_2025-04-22 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ISRG_2025-07-22 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ISRG_2026-01-22 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ISRG_2026-01-22 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ISRG_2026-01-22 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ISRG_2026-01-22 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ISRG_2026-01-22 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ISRG_2026-01-22 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ISRG_2026-01-22 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ISRG_2026-04-21 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • ISRG_2026-07-16 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital

Historical examples

Example trades, payoff and risk

Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.

Bear Call Spread

Did not clear entry filters
Modeled entry credit
$335.0000
Payoff max loss
-$1,665.00
Payoff max profit
$335.00
Modeled exit P&L
$338.6521.7% on stored risk basis $1,560.00

Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.

Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.

Entry filter failures: directional confirmation missing.

Entry Jul 2, 2026 → Exit Jul 15, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.

Strategy payoffHistorical example · expiration payoff from exact entry fills (before commissions). Entry spot $426.01. Expiry maximum profit $335.00 · Expiry maximum loss -$1,665.00 · Expiry breakevens $463.35. Total position fees $0.00 deducted once. Intrinsic at the common expiration; IV/time never alters expiry P/L. No early exercise, assignment, slippage, dividends or taxes modeled.

Update time unavailable

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

$213.005Expiration P/L $335.00Update time unavailable
Event / reference markers
  • Entry spot: $426.01
  • Expiry breakeven $463.35: $463.35
  • sell call strike $460.00: $460.00
  • buy call strike $480.00: $480.00
Exact data table

Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles

ObservationExpiration P/L (USD)ContextUpdated
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Entry spot referenceUpdate time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$335.00Update time unavailable
$325.92Update time unavailable
-$0.00Update time unavailable
-$100.09Update time unavailable
-$526.10Update time unavailable
-$952.11Update time unavailable
-$1,378.12Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable
-$1,665.00Update time unavailable

Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.

Side / quantityContractStrike / expiryEntry fillExit fill
SELL × 1ISRG260717C00460000$460.00 call · 2026-07-17$6.7000$0.6375
BUY × 1ISRG260717C00480000$480.00 call · 2026-07-17$3.3500$0.7000

Breakevens: $463.35. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.

Stored costs: $0.65 / contract / side · slippage 25.0% of spread / fillExample methodology and limitations

2648 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_ISRG_262f9057e1b956d5 · Historical methodology

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