Earnings volatility research
NLY · Annaly Capital Management Inc. Common Stock
Next verified earnings in 8 days · Oct 20, 2026 · After close (AMC).
Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts
No reviewed research is available for NLY yet
Coverage and research availability are separate datasets.
A snapshot may be in progress, awaiting review, or blocked by data-quality gates. Published research appears here once it clears review.
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for NLY
Observed outcomes from 12 earnings events (Oct 25, 2023 – Jul 21, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Implied moves available from Oct 25, 2023; gaps indicate missing quotes.
Updated Oct 12, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Exact data table
NLY · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 3.8609% | Signed actual 0% · Reconstructed · 18 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 1.2383% | 2.9614% | Signed actual 1.2383% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 1.4684% | 2.0822% | Signed actual 1.4684% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 1.3066% | 2.4114% | Signed actual -1.3066% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 0.7674% | 2.1385% | Signed actual 0.7674% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 3.5929% | 2.0854% | Signed actual 3.5929% · Reconstructed · 22 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 0.9187% | 3.3894% | Signed actual -0.9187% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 0.5379% | Unavailable | Signed actual 0.5379% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 1.9245% | 2.2803% | Signed actual -1.9245% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 1.0309% | 2.4425% | Signed actual -1.0309% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 0.1325% | 2.8256% | Signed actual 0.1325% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 1.0154% | 2.7313% | Signed actual -1.0154% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 |
Compare entry timing
Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.
Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.
1 malformed straddle/strangle example is excluded from comparison because stored leg metadata does not match the named structure. The original stored historical evidence is preserved.
Includes trades that failed entry filters; this measures structures, not a history of qualified recommendations. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.
Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.
| Strategy | T−35 | T−34 | T−33 | T−32 | T−31 | T−30 | T−29 | T−28 | T−27 | T−26 | T−25 | T−24 | T−23 | T−22 | T−21 | T−20 | T−19 | T−18 | T−17 | T−16 | T−15 | T−14 | T−13 | T−12 | T−11 | T−10 | T−9 | T−8 | T−7 | T−6 | T−5 | T−4 | T−3 | T−2 | T−1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bull Put Spread | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Calendar | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Iron Condor | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Long Straddle | Not available | Not available | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Long Strangle | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | Not available | Not available | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available |
Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.
T−14 entry details
| Strategy | Events | Average | Median | Worst observed | Best observed | Did not pass filters / Unknown eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | 8 | -$21.41 | -$27.23 | -$39.60 | $1.90 | 8 / 0 |
| Bull Put Spread | 6 | -$18.68 | -$5.98 | -$95.60 | $8.90 | 6 / 0 |
| Calendar | 6 | -$45.35 | -$34.48 | -$107.60 | $6.15 | 6 / 0 |
| Iron Condor | 4 | -$31.01 | -$27.83 | -$55.95 | -$12.45 | 4 / 0 |
| Long Straddle | 9 | $9.71 | $1.90 | -$64.35 | $140.15 | 9 / 0 |
| Long Strangle | 6 | -$5.85 | -$12.85 | -$26.10 | $41.65 | 6 / 0 |
| Short Straddle | 9 | -$62.18 | -$43.85 | -$152.85 | $20.65 | 9 / 0 |
| Short Strangle | 6 | -$23.85 | -$2.72 | -$79.35 | $13.90 | 6 / 0 |
41 unavailable tests at T−14
- NLY_2023-10-25 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2023-10-25 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2023-10-25 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2023-10-25 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2023-10-25 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2024-02-07 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2024-02-07 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2024-05-02 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2024-05-02 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2024-05-02 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2024-05-02 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2024-05-02 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2024-05-02 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2024-10-23 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2024-10-23 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2024-10-23 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2024-10-23 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2024-10-23 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2025-01-29 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2025-01-29 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2025-01-29 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2025-01-29 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2025-01-29 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2025-01-29 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2025-01-29 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2025-01-29 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2025-04-30 · Long Straddle · no constructible legs
- NLY_2025-04-30 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2025-04-30 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2025-04-30 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2025-04-30 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2025-07-23 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2025-07-23 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2025-07-23 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2025-07-23 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2025-10-22 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2025-10-22 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2026-01-28 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2026-04-21 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2026-04-21 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- NLY_2026-04-21 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Bear Call Spread
Did not clear entry filters- Modeled entry credit
- $1.0000
- Payoff max loss
- -$99.00
- Payoff max profit
- $1.00
- Modeled exit P&L
- -$7.10-7.6% on stored risk basis $94.00
Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.
Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.
Entry filter failures: directional confirmation missing.
Entry Jul 7, 2026 → Exit Jul 20, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.
Update time unavailable
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Event / reference markers
- Entry spot: $22.69
- Expiry breakeven $23.51: $23.51
- sell call strike $23.50: $23.50
- buy call strike $24.50: $24.50
Exact data table
Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Expiration P/L (USD) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $1.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $1.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $1.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $1.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| $1.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| $1.00 | Entry spot reference | Update time unavailable | |
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| $1.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $1.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$0.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$8.76 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$31.45 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$54.14 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$76.83 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$99.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$99.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$99.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| -$99.00 | Update time unavailable |
Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | NLY260724C00023500 | $23.50 call · 2026-07-24 | $0.0425 | $0.0575 |
| BUY × 1 | NLY260724C00024500 | $24.50 call · 2026-07-24 | $0.0325 | $0.0025 |
Breakevens: $23.51. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.
3131 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_NLY_b42bec5aa56383b4 · Historical methodology
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