Earnings volatility research
SAP · SAP SE ADS
Next verified earnings in 8 days · Oct 21, 2026 · After close (AMC).
- Observed earnings moves:
- 10 History through Oct 13, 2026
- Mean absolute actual move:
- 4.9% 10 observed events · not a forecast
- Actual exceeded priced move:
- 40.0% 2 of 5 paired observations
- Options evidence coverage:
- Unavailable No stored options snapshot
Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts
No reviewed research is available for SAP yet
Coverage and research availability are separate datasets.
A snapshot may be in progress, awaiting review, or blocked by data-quality gates. Published research appears here once it clears review.
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for SAP
Observed outcomes from 10 earnings events (Oct 18, 2023 – Jul 23, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Implied moves available from Oct 18, 2023; gaps indicate missing quotes.
Updated Oct 13, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Exact data table
SAP · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5216% | 4.1574% | Signed actual 4.5216% · Reconstructed · 13 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 6.8735% | 5.3918% | Signed actual 6.8735% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 5.5169% | Unavailable | Signed actual 5.5169% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 7.1283% | Unavailable | Signed actual 7.1283% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 1.2376% | Unavailable | Signed actual 1.2376% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 0.7424% | Unavailable | Signed actual 0.7424% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 5.1128% | 6.4927% | Signed actual -5.1128% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 0.8363% | 8.183% | Signed actual 0.8363% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 7.3568% | 8.6484% | Signed actual 7.3568% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 9.3045% | Unavailable | Signed actual 9.3045% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 |
Compare entry timing
Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.
Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.
Includes only trades explicitly recorded as passing entry filters. Unknown eligibility and failed-filter runs are excluded; no all-history fallback is applied when none pass. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.
Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.
| Strategy | T−35 | T−34 | T−33 | T−32 | T−31 | T−30 | T−29 | T−28 | T−27 | T−26 | T−25 | T−24 | T−23 | T−22 | T−21 | T−20 | T−19 | T−18 | T−17 | T−16 | T−15 | T−14 | T−13 | T−12 | T−11 | T−10 | T−9 | T−8 | T−7 | T−6 | T−5 | T−4 | T−3 | T−2 | T−1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Bull Put Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Calendar | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| Iron Condor | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | |||||||||||||
| Long Straddle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | |
| Long Strangle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | |
| Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.
T−14 entry details
| Strategy | Events | Average | Median | Worst observed | Best observed | Did not pass filters / Unknown eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Condor | 1 | -$96.45 | -$96.45 | -$96.45 | -$96.45 | 0 / 0 |
21 unavailable tests at T−14
- SAP_2023-10-18 · Calendar · no constructible legs
- SAP_2024-04-22 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SAP_2024-04-22 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SAP_2024-04-22 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SAP_2024-04-22 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SAP_2024-04-22 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SAP_2024-07-22 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SAP_2024-10-21 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SAP_2024-10-21 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SAP_2024-10-21 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SAP_2024-10-21 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SAP_2025-04-21 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SAP_2025-04-21 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SAP_2025-04-21 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SAP_2025-04-21 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SAP_2025-04-21 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SAP_2026-04-23 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SAP_2026-04-23 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SAP_2026-04-23 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SAP_2026-07-23 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SAP_2026-07-23 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Iron Condor
Passed entry filters- Modeled entry credit
- $337.5000
- Payoff max loss
- -$662.50
- Payoff max profit
- $337.50
- Modeled exit P&L
- -$96.45-15.4% on stored risk basis $625.00
Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.
Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.
Entry Oct 8, 2025 → Exit Oct 21, 2025. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.
Update time unavailable
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Event / reference markers
- Entry spot: $277.15
- Expiry breakeven $256.625: $256.625
- Expiry breakeven $303.375: $303.375
- sell put strike $260.00: $260.00
- buy put strike $250.00: $250.00
- sell call strike $300.00: $300.00
- buy call strike $310.00: $310.00
Exact data table
Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Expiration P/L (USD) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$441.85 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$164.70 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $0.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $112.45 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $337.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $337.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $337.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $337.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $337.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $337.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $337.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $337.50 | Entry spot reference | Update time unavailable | |
| $337.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $337.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $337.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $337.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $337.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $337.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $337.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $337.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $337.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $128.15 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $0.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$149.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$426.15 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
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| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$662.50 | Update time unavailable |
Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | SAP251121P00260000 | $260.00 put · 2025-11-21 | $4.9000 | $4.1000 |
| BUY × 1 | SAP251121P00250000 | $250.00 put · 2025-11-21 | $3.0500 | $2.1125 |
| SELL × 1 | SAP251121C00300000 | $300.00 call · 2025-11-21 | $4.5250 | $5.2500 |
| BUY × 1 | SAP251121C00310000 | $310.00 call · 2025-11-21 | $3.0000 | $2.9500 |
Breakevens: $256.63 / $303.38. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.
2296 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_SAP_d033ad5c0105fe11 · Historical methodology
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