Earnings volatility research

SBUX · Starbucks Corporation

Next verified earnings in 10 days · Oct 29, 2026 · After close (AMC).

Research pending
Observed earnings moves:
12
History through Oct 19, 2026
Mean absolute actual move:
4.6%
12 observed events · not a forecast
Actual exceeded priced move:
33.3%
4 of 12 paired observations
Options evidence coverage:
Unavailable
No stored options snapshot

Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts

My workspace

No reviewed research is available for SBUX yet

Coverage and research availability are separate datasets.

Next verified eventOct 29, 2026 · After close (AMC)
Days to next event10 calendar days
Research window1–35 days before earnings
Why no researchNo snapshot has cleared data-quality and review gates for this event yet
Calendar sourceVerified earnings calendar

A snapshot may be in progress, awaiting review, or blocked by data-quality gates. Published research appears here once it clears review.

Past events · reconstructed

Historical reconstruction for SBUX

Observed outcomes from 12 earnings events (Nov 2, 2023 – Jul 29, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.

Historical · past

Realized move versus what was implied

Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.

Implied moves available from Nov 2, 2023; gaps indicate missing quotes.

SBUX · Implied versus actual earnings moveAbsolute realized movement and stored implied move share one scale. Signed actual returns and reconstruction status are preserved in the readout/table. Missing quotes are not zero.

Updated Oct 19, 2026

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

2023-11-02: Realized move: 9.48% Implied move: 5.5939% Signed actual 9.48% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints Updated Oct 19, 2026
Exact data table

SBUX · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles

ObservationRealized move (%)Implied move (%)ContextUpdated
9.48%5.5939%Signed actual 9.48% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026
1.116%5.9648%Signed actual -1.116% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026
15.8775%6.4361%Signed actual -15.8775% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026
2.6467%7.387%Signed actual 2.6467% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026
0.3905%5.0313%Signed actual 0.3905% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026
8.1366%6.8986%Signed actual 8.1366% · Reconstructed · 22 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026
5.657%7.6281%Signed actual -5.657% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026
0.2151%6.6617%Signed actual -0.2151% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026
1.2118%7.6086%Signed actual -1.2118% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026
0.585%7.4175%Signed actual -0.585% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026
8.4498%6.538%Signed actual 8.4498% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026
1.642%6.2124%Signed actual 1.642% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 19, 2026

Compare entry timing

Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.

Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.

Includes only trades explicitly recorded as passing entry filters. Unknown eligibility and failed-filter runs are excluded; no all-history fallback is applied when none pass. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.

Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.

StrategyT−35T−34T−33T−32T−31T−30T−29T−28T−27T−26T−25T−24T−23T−22T−21T−20T−19T−18T−17T−16T−15T−14T−13T−12T−11T−10T−9T−8T−7T−6T−5T−4T−3T−2T−1
Bear Call SpreadNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot available
Bull Put SpreadNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot available
CalendarNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot available
Iron CondorNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot available
Long StraddleNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot available
Long StrangleNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot available
Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside riskNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot available
Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside riskNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot available

Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.

T−14 entry details

StrategyEventsAverageMedianWorst observedBest observedDid not pass filters / Unknown eligibility
Calendar4-$3.72$9.15-$106.35$73.150 / 0
Iron Condor6-$37.37-$24.33-$92.95$3.050 / 0
Long Straddle1-$99.85-$99.85-$99.85-$99.850 / 0
Long Strangle1-$63.10-$63.10-$63.10-$63.100 / 0
2 unavailable tests at T−14
  • SBUX_2025-10-29 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • SBUX_2026-01-28 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital

Historical examples

Example trades, payoff and risk

Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.

Iron Condor

Passed entry filters
Modeled entry credit
$126.0000
Payoff max loss
-$374.00
Payoff max profit
$126.00
Modeled exit P&L
-$69.95-20.6% on stored risk basis $339.00

Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.

Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.

Entry Jan 14, 2026 → Exit Jan 27, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.

Strategy payoffHistorical example · expiration payoff from exact entry fills (before commissions). Entry spot $91.15. Expiry maximum profit $126.00 · Expiry maximum loss -$374.00 · Expiry breakevens $83.74, $99.26. Total position fees $0.00 deducted once. Intrinsic at the common expiration; IV/time never alters expiry P/L. No early exercise, assignment, slippage, dividends or taxes modeled.

Update time unavailable

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

$45.575: Expiration P/L: -$374.00 Update time unavailable
Event / reference markers
  • Entry spot: $91.15
  • Expiry breakeven $83.74: $83.74
  • Expiry breakeven $99.26: $99.26
  • sell put strike $85.00: $85.00
  • buy put strike $80.00: $80.00
  • sell call strike $98.00: $98.00
  • buy call strike $103.00: $103.00
Exact data table

Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles

ObservationExpiration P/L (USD)ContextUpdated
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$352.80Update time unavailable
-$261.65Update time unavailable
-$170.50Update time unavailable
-$79.35Update time unavailable
-$0.00Update time unavailable
$11.80Update time unavailable
$102.95Update time unavailable
$126.00Update time unavailable
$126.00Update time unavailable
$126.00Update time unavailable
$126.00Update time unavailable
$126.00Update time unavailable
$126.00Update time unavailable
$126.00Update time unavailable
$126.00Entry spot referenceUpdate time unavailable
$126.00Update time unavailable
$126.00Update time unavailable
$126.00Update time unavailable
$126.00Update time unavailable
$126.00Update time unavailable
$126.00Update time unavailable
$126.00Update time unavailable
$126.00Update time unavailable
$81.80Update time unavailable
-$0.00Update time unavailable
-$9.35Update time unavailable
-$100.50Update time unavailable
-$191.65Update time unavailable
-$282.80Update time unavailable
-$373.95Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable
-$374.00Update time unavailable

Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.

Side / quantityContractStrike / expiryEntry fillExit fill
SELL × 1SBUX260130P00085000$85.00 put · 2026-01-30$1.4700$0.4675
BUY × 1SBUX260130P00080000$80.00 put · 2026-01-30$0.6750$0.1325
SELL × 1SBUX260130C00098000$98.00 call · 2026-01-30$1.3300$2.5925
BUY × 1SBUX260130C00103000$103.00 call · 2026-01-30$0.8650$1.0200

Breakevens: $83.74 / $99.26. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.

Stored costs: $0.65 / contract / side · slippage 25.0% of spread / fillExample methodology and limitations

2485 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_SBUX_d8bb26a26a925c39 · Historical methodology

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