Earnings volatility research
SBUX · Starbucks Corporation
Next verified earnings in 10 days · Oct 29, 2026 · After close (AMC).
- Observed earnings moves:
- 12 History through Oct 19, 2026
- Mean absolute actual move:
- 4.6% 12 observed events · not a forecast
- Actual exceeded priced move:
- 33.3% 4 of 12 paired observations
- Options evidence coverage:
- Unavailable No stored options snapshot
Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts
No reviewed research is available for SBUX yet
Coverage and research availability are separate datasets.
A snapshot may be in progress, awaiting review, or blocked by data-quality gates. Published research appears here once it clears review.
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for SBUX
Observed outcomes from 12 earnings events (Nov 2, 2023 – Jul 29, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Implied moves available from Nov 2, 2023; gaps indicate missing quotes.
Updated Oct 19, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Exact data table
SBUX · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.48% | 5.5939% | Signed actual 9.48% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 | |
| 1.116% | 5.9648% | Signed actual -1.116% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 | |
| 15.8775% | 6.4361% | Signed actual -15.8775% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 | |
| 2.6467% | 7.387% | Signed actual 2.6467% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 | |
| 0.3905% | 5.0313% | Signed actual 0.3905% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 | |
| 8.1366% | 6.8986% | Signed actual 8.1366% · Reconstructed · 22 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 | |
| 5.657% | 7.6281% | Signed actual -5.657% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 | |
| 0.2151% | 6.6617% | Signed actual -0.2151% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 | |
| 1.2118% | 7.6086% | Signed actual -1.2118% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 | |
| 0.585% | 7.4175% | Signed actual -0.585% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 | |
| 8.4498% | 6.538% | Signed actual 8.4498% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 | |
| 1.642% | 6.2124% | Signed actual 1.642% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 19, 2026 |
Compare entry timing
Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.
Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.
Includes only trades explicitly recorded as passing entry filters. Unknown eligibility and failed-filter runs are excluded; no all-history fallback is applied when none pass. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.
Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.
| Strategy | T−35 | T−34 | T−33 | T−32 | T−31 | T−30 | T−29 | T−28 | T−27 | T−26 | T−25 | T−24 | T−23 | T−22 | T−21 | T−20 | T−19 | T−18 | T−17 | T−16 | T−15 | T−14 | T−13 | T−12 | T−11 | T−10 | T−9 | T−8 | T−7 | T−6 | T−5 | T−4 | T−3 | T−2 | T−1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Bull Put Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Calendar | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||
| Iron Condor | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Long Straddle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | |||||
| Long Strangle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | |||||
| Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.
T−14 entry details
| Strategy | Events | Average | Median | Worst observed | Best observed | Did not pass filters / Unknown eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calendar | 4 | -$3.72 | $9.15 | -$106.35 | $73.15 | 0 / 0 |
| Iron Condor | 6 | -$37.37 | -$24.33 | -$92.95 | $3.05 | 0 / 0 |
| Long Straddle | 1 | -$99.85 | -$99.85 | -$99.85 | -$99.85 | 0 / 0 |
| Long Strangle | 1 | -$63.10 | -$63.10 | -$63.10 | -$63.10 | 0 / 0 |
2 unavailable tests at T−14
- SBUX_2025-10-29 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- SBUX_2026-01-28 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Iron Condor
Passed entry filters- Modeled entry credit
- $126.0000
- Payoff max loss
- -$374.00
- Payoff max profit
- $126.00
- Modeled exit P&L
- -$69.95-20.6% on stored risk basis $339.00
Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.
Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.
Entry Jan 14, 2026 → Exit Jan 27, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.
Update time unavailable
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Event / reference markers
- Entry spot: $91.15
- Expiry breakeven $83.74: $83.74
- Expiry breakeven $99.26: $99.26
- sell put strike $85.00: $85.00
- buy put strike $80.00: $80.00
- sell call strike $98.00: $98.00
- buy call strike $103.00: $103.00
Exact data table
Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Expiration P/L (USD) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$352.80 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$261.65 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$170.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$79.35 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$0.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $11.80 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $102.95 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $126.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $126.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $126.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $126.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $126.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $126.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $126.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $126.00 | Entry spot reference | Update time unavailable | |
| $126.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $126.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $126.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $126.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $126.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $126.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $126.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $126.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $81.80 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$0.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$9.35 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$100.50 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$191.65 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$282.80 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$373.95 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$374.00 | Update time unavailable |
Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | SBUX260130P00085000 | $85.00 put · 2026-01-30 | $1.4700 | $0.4675 |
| BUY × 1 | SBUX260130P00080000 | $80.00 put · 2026-01-30 | $0.6750 | $0.1325 |
| SELL × 1 | SBUX260130C00098000 | $98.00 call · 2026-01-30 | $1.3300 | $2.5925 |
| BUY × 1 | SBUX260130C00103000 | $103.00 call · 2026-01-30 | $0.8650 | $1.0200 |
Breakevens: $83.74 / $99.26. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.
2485 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_SBUX_d8bb26a26a925c39 · Historical methodology
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