Earnings volatility research
T · AT&T Inc.
Next verified earnings in 8 days · Oct 21, 2026 · Before open (BMO).
- Observed earnings moves:
- 12 History through Oct 13, 2026
- Mean absolute actual move:
- 3.3% 12 observed events · not a forecast
- Actual exceeded priced move:
- 18.2% 2 of 11 paired observations
- Options evidence coverage:
- Unavailable No stored options snapshot
Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts
No reviewed research is available for T yet
Coverage and research availability are separate datasets.
A snapshot may be in progress, awaiting review, or blocked by data-quality gates. Published research appears here once it clears review.
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for T
Observed outcomes from 12 earnings events (Oct 19, 2023 – Jul 22, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Implied moves available from Oct 19, 2023; gaps indicate missing quotes.
Updated Oct 13, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Exact data table
T · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5638% | 4.8184% | Signed actual 6.5638% · Reconstructed · 14 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 2.9668% | 5.4683% | Signed actual -2.9668% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 1.8787% | 4.5758% | Signed actual 1.8787% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 5.2169% | 4.3108% | Signed actual 5.2169% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 4.6043% | 5.0465% | Signed actual 4.6043% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 6.2503% | Unavailable | Signed actual 6.2503% · Reconstructed · 22 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 0.8532% | 4.9518% | Signed actual 0.8532% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 1.2037% | 4.3581% | Signed actual 1.2037% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 1.9197% | 4.7217% | Signed actual -1.9197% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 4.6521% | 4.6957% | Signed actual 4.6521% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 0.3865% | 5.2357% | Signed actual 0.3865% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 | |
| 3.504% | 4.5597% | Signed actual 3.504% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 13, 2026 |
Compare entry timing
Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.
Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.
1 malformed straddle/strangle example is excluded from comparison because stored leg metadata does not match the named structure. The original stored historical evidence is preserved.
Includes only trades explicitly recorded as passing entry filters. Unknown eligibility and failed-filter runs are excluded; no all-history fallback is applied when none pass. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.
Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.
| Strategy | T−35 | T−34 | T−33 | T−32 | T−31 | T−30 | T−29 | T−28 | T−27 | T−26 | T−25 | T−24 | T−23 | T−22 | T−21 | T−20 | T−19 | T−18 | T−17 | T−16 | T−15 | T−14 | T−13 | T−12 | T−11 | T−10 | T−9 | T−8 | T−7 | T−6 | T−5 | T−4 | T−3 | T−2 | T−1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Bull Put Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Calendar | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | ||||||||||||||||||
| Iron Condor | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Long Straddle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | ||||
| Long Strangle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | ||||
| Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.
T−14 entry details
| Strategy | Events | Average | Median | Worst observed | Best observed | Did not pass filters / Unknown eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calendar | 3 | -$16.02 | -$29.10 | -$29.85 | $10.90 | 0 / 0 |
| Iron Condor | 2 | -$26.45 | -$26.45 | -$32.20 | -$20.70 | 0 / 0 |
8 unavailable tests at T−14
- T_2023-10-19 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- T_2024-01-24 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- T_2024-04-24 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- T_2024-04-24 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- T_2025-07-23 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- T_2025-07-23 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- T_2025-10-22 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- T_2025-10-22 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Calendar
Passed entry filters- Modeled entry debit
- $40.5000
- Payoff max loss
- Model dependent
- Payoff max profit
- Model dependent
- Modeled exit P&L
- -$29.85-78.6% on stored risk basis $38.00
Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.
Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.
Entry Jul 8, 2026 → Exit Jul 16, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Different expirations require time and volatility assumptions.
This example spans different expirations. A comparable expiration payoff needs time and volatility assumptions; the exact fills and realized modeled result are below.
Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | T260717C00021000 | $21.00 call · 2026-07-17 | $0.3000 | $1.1500 |
| BUY × 1 | T260731C00021000 | $21.00 call · 2026-07-31 | $0.7050 | $1.2825 |
2485 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_T_e959f02342e11cc0 · Historical methodology
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