Earnings volatility research
UAL · United Airlines Holdings, Inc.
Next verified earnings in 8 days · Oct 20, 2026 · After close (AMC).
- Observed earnings moves:
- 12 History through Oct 12, 2026
- Mean absolute actual move:
- 5.6% 12 observed events · not a forecast
- Actual exceeded priced move:
- 33.3% 3 of 9 paired observations
- Options evidence coverage:
- Unavailable No stored options snapshot
Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts
No reviewed research is available for UAL yet
Coverage and research availability are separate datasets.
A snapshot may be in progress, awaiting review, or blocked by data-quality gates. Published research appears here once it clears review.
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for UAL
Observed outcomes from 12 earnings events (Oct 17, 2023 – Jul 15, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Implied moves available from Oct 17, 2023; gaps indicate missing quotes.
Updated Oct 12, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Exact data table
UAL · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.671% | 5.9575% | Signed actual -9.671% · Reconstructed · 12 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 5.3056% | Unavailable | Signed actual 5.3056% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 17.4458% | 8.1262% | Signed actual 17.4458% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 1.1717% | 7.7332% | Signed actual -1.1717% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 12.4434% | 6.7134% | Signed actual 12.4434% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 2.3073% | Unavailable | Signed actual -2.3073% · Reconstructed · 22 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 0.0149% | 9.248% | Signed actual -0.0149% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 3.1084% | 7.6059% | Signed actual 3.1084% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 5.6319% | 6.8589% | Signed actual -5.6319% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 2.2013% | Unavailable | Signed actual 2.2013% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 5.5802% | 7.1024% | Signed actual -5.5802% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 | |
| 1.7856% | 6.1654% | Signed actual -1.7856% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 12, 2026 |
Compare entry timing
Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.
Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.
Includes only trades explicitly recorded as passing entry filters. Unknown eligibility and failed-filter runs are excluded; no all-history fallback is applied when none pass. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.
Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.
| Strategy | T−35 | T−34 | T−33 | T−32 | T−31 | T−30 | T−29 | T−28 | T−27 | T−26 | T−25 | T−24 | T−23 | T−22 | T−21 | T−20 | T−19 | T−18 | T−17 | T−16 | T−15 | T−14 | T−13 | T−12 | T−11 | T−10 | T−9 | T−8 | T−7 | T−6 | T−5 | T−4 | T−3 | T−2 | T−1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Bull Put Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Calendar | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | |||||||||||||||
| Iron Condor | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Long Straddle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available | ||||
| Long Strangle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available | ||||
| Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available |
Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.
T−14 entry details
| Strategy | Events | Average | Median | Worst observed | Best observed | Did not pass filters / Unknown eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calendar | 2 | -$51.60 | -$51.60 | -$95.60 | -$7.60 | 0 / 0 |
| Iron Condor | 7 | -$73.77 | -$90.95 | -$189.20 | $45.55 | 0 / 0 |
10 unavailable tests at T−14
- UAL_2024-01-22 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- UAL_2024-10-15 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- UAL_2025-01-21 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- UAL_2025-10-15 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- UAL_2025-10-15 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- UAL_2025-10-15 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- UAL_2026-04-21 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- UAL_2026-07-15 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- UAL_2026-07-15 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- UAL_2026-07-15 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
Historical examples
Example trades, payoff and risk
Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.
Iron Condor
Passed entry filters- Modeled entry credit
- $5.2500
- Payoff max loss
- -$494.75
- Payoff max profit
- $5.25
- Modeled exit P&L
- -$189.20-54.1% on stored risk basis $349.50
Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.
Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.
Entry Apr 7, 2026 → Exit Apr 20, 2026. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.
Update time unavailable
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Event / reference markers
- Entry spot: $89.29
- Expiry breakeven $79.9475: $79.9475
- Expiry breakeven $100.0525: $100.0525
- sell put strike $80.00: $80.00
- buy put strike $75.00: $75.00
- sell call strike $100.00: $100.00
- buy call strike $105.00: $105.00
Exact data table
Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Expiration P/L (USD) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.39 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$405.10 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$315.81 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$226.52 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$137.23 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$47.94 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $0.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $5.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $5.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $5.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $5.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $5.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $5.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $5.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $5.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $5.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $5.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $5.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $5.25 | Entry spot reference | Update time unavailable | |
| $5.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $5.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $5.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $5.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $5.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $5.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $5.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $5.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $5.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $5.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $5.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $5.25 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $4.77 | Update time unavailable | ||
| $0.00 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$84.52 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$173.81 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$263.10 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$352.39 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$441.68 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable | ||
| -$494.75 | Update time unavailable |
Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.
| Side / quantity | Contract | Strike / expiry | Entry fill | Exit fill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL × 1 | UAL260424P00080000 | $80.00 put · 2026-04-24 | $1.8500 | $0.0950 |
| BUY × 1 | UAL260424P00075000 | $75.00 put · 2026-04-24 | $1.4900 | $0.0475 |
| SELL × 1 | UAL260424C00100000 | $100.00 call · 2026-04-24 | $1.5150 | $3.0750 |
| BUY × 1 | UAL260424C00105000 | $105.00 call · 2026-04-24 | $1.8225 | $1.2300 |
Breakevens: $79.95 / $100.05. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.
2507 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_UAL_ab014bf33b0b67ac · Historical methodology
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