Earnings volatility research

VKTX · Viking Therapeutics, Inc.

Next verified earnings in 12 days · Oct 28, 2026 · After close (AMC).

Research pending
Observed earnings moves:
12
History through Oct 16, 2026
Mean absolute actual move:
8.8%
12 observed events · not a forecast
Actual exceeded priced move:
18.2%
2 of 11 paired observations
Options evidence coverage:
Unavailable
No stored options snapshot

Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts

My workspace

No reviewed research is available for VKTX yet

Coverage and research availability are separate datasets.

Next verified eventOct 28, 2026 · After close (AMC)
Days to next event12 calendar days
Research window1–35 days before earnings
Why no researchNo snapshot has cleared data-quality and review gates for this event yet
Calendar sourceVerified earnings calendar

A snapshot may be in progress, awaiting review, or blocked by data-quality gates. Published research appears here once it clears review.

Past events · reconstructed

Historical reconstruction for VKTX

Observed outcomes from 12 earnings events (Oct 25, 2023 – Jul 29, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.

Historical · past

Realized move versus what was implied

Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.

Implied moves available from Oct 25, 2023; gaps indicate missing quotes.

VKTX · Implied versus actual earnings moveAbsolute realized movement and stored implied move share one scale. Signed actual returns and reconstruction status are preserved in the readout/table. Missing quotes are not zero.

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

2023-10-25: Realized move: 9.4189% Implied move: 26.2911% Signed actual -9.4189% · Reconstructed · 18 IV checkpoints Updated Oct 16, 2026
Exact data table

VKTX · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles

ObservationRealized move (%)Implied move (%)ContextUpdated
9.4189%26.2911%Signed actual -9.4189% · Reconstructed · 18 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 16, 2026
18.0147%23.4661%Signed actual 18.0147% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 16, 2026
5.8245%9.8568%Signed actual 5.8245% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 16, 2026
28.3079%16.104%Signed actual 28.3079% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 16, 2026
21.2452%7.6576%Signed actual 21.2452% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 16, 2026
6.0896%10.4109%Signed actual -6.0896% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 16, 2026
0.5041%9.6546%Signed actual -0.5041% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 16, 2026
0.2994%11.4953%Signed actual 0.2994% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 16, 2026
7.9567%9.4451%Signed actual 7.9567% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 16, 2026
6.7951%UnavailableSigned actual 6.7951% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 16, 2026
0.4788%8.3977%Signed actual -0.4788% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 16, 2026
0.9572%10.3957%Signed actual -0.9572% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpointsUpdated Oct 16, 2026

Compare entry timing

Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.

Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.

2 malformed straddle/strangle examples are excluded from comparison because stored leg metadata does not match the named structure. The original stored historical evidence is preserved.

Includes only trades explicitly recorded as passing entry filters. Unknown eligibility and failed-filter runs are excluded; no all-history fallback is applied when none pass. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.

Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.

StrategyT−35T−34T−33T−32T−31T−30T−29T−28T−27T−26T−25T−24T−23T−22T−21T−20T−19T−18T−17T−16T−15T−14T−13T−12T−11T−10T−9T−8T−7T−6T−5T−4T−3T−2T−1
Bear Call SpreadNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNot available
Bull Put SpreadNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNot available
CalendarNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot available
Iron CondorNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNot available
Long StraddleNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNot available
Long StrangleNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNot available
Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside riskNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNot available
Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside riskNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNo eligible runsNot availableNot availableNo eligible runsNot available

Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.

T−14 entry details

StrategyEventsAverageMedianWorst observedBest observedDid not pass filters / Unknown eligibility
Long Straddle1-$362.60-$362.60-$362.60-$362.600 / 0
35 unavailable tests at T−14
  • VKTX_2023-10-25 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2023-10-25 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2023-10-25 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2023-10-25 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2023-10-25 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2023-10-25 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2024-02-07 · Calendar · no constructible legs
  • VKTX_2024-04-24 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2024-04-24 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2024-07-24 · Long Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2024-07-24 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2024-07-24 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2024-07-24 · Short Strangle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2024-10-23 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2025-02-05 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2025-02-05 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2025-02-05 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2025-04-23 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2025-04-23 · Calendar · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2025-04-23 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2025-04-23 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2025-07-23 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2025-07-23 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2025-10-22 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2026-02-11 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2026-02-11 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2026-02-11 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2026-02-11 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2026-02-11 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2026-04-29 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2026-07-29 · Long Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2026-07-29 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2026-07-29 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2026-07-29 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
  • VKTX_2026-07-29 · Short Straddle · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital

Historical examples

Example trades, payoff and risk

Past structural simulations · modeled fills · not historical recommendations.

Long Straddle

Passed entry filters
Modeled entry debit
$832.5000
Payoff max loss
-$832.50
Payoff max profit
Unbounded
Modeled exit P&L
-$362.60-45.0% on stored risk basis $805.00

Exit rule: Scheduled before earnings / expiration. Exit reason: scheduled exit.

Price basis: Quote midpoint with adverse spread slippage.

Entry Oct 9, 2024 → Exit Oct 22, 2024. Payoff is a scenario; exit P&L uses the stored exit fills. Payoff uses modeled entry premiums before commissions.

Strategy payoffHistorical example · expiration payoff from exact entry fills (before commissions). Entry spot $62.64. Expiry maximum profit unbounded · Expiry maximum loss -$832.50 · Expiry breakevens $54.675, $71.325. Total position fees $0.00 deducted once. Intrinsic at the common expiration; IV/time never alters expiry P/L. No early exercise, assignment, slippage, dividends or taxes modeled.

Update time unavailable

Loading graph — the exact table is available below.

$31.32: Expiration P/L: $2,335.50 Update time unavailable
Event / reference markers
  • Entry spot: $62.64
  • Expiry breakeven $54.675: $54.675
  • Expiry breakeven $71.325: $71.325
  • buy call strike $63.00: $63.00
  • buy put strike $63.00: $63.00
Exact data table

Strategy payoff · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles

ObservationExpiration P/L (USD)ContextUpdated
$2,335.50Update time unavailable
$2,272.86Update time unavailable
$2,210.22Update time unavailable
$2,147.58Update time unavailable
$2,084.94Update time unavailable
$2,022.30Update time unavailable
$1,959.66Update time unavailable
$1,897.02Update time unavailable
$1,834.38Update time unavailable
$1,771.74Update time unavailable
$1,709.10Update time unavailable
$1,646.46Update time unavailable
$1,583.82Update time unavailable
$1,521.18Update time unavailable
$1,458.54Update time unavailable
$1,395.90Update time unavailable
$1,333.26Update time unavailable
$1,270.62Update time unavailable
$1,207.98Update time unavailable
$1,145.34Update time unavailable
$1,082.70Update time unavailable
$1,020.06Update time unavailable
$957.42Update time unavailable
$894.78Update time unavailable
$832.14Update time unavailable
$769.50Update time unavailable
$706.86Update time unavailable
$644.22Update time unavailable
$581.58Update time unavailable
$518.94Update time unavailable
$456.30Update time unavailable
$393.66Update time unavailable
$331.02Update time unavailable
$268.38Update time unavailable
$205.74Update time unavailable
$143.10Update time unavailable
$80.46Update time unavailable
$17.82Update time unavailable
$0.00Update time unavailable
-$44.82Update time unavailable
-$107.46Update time unavailable
-$170.10Update time unavailable
-$232.74Update time unavailable
-$295.38Update time unavailable
-$358.02Update time unavailable
-$420.66Update time unavailable
-$483.30Update time unavailable
-$545.94Update time unavailable
-$608.58Update time unavailable
-$671.22Update time unavailable
-$733.86Update time unavailable
-$796.50Entry spot referenceUpdate time unavailable
-$832.50Update time unavailable
-$805.86Update time unavailable
-$743.22Update time unavailable
-$680.58Update time unavailable
-$617.94Update time unavailable
-$555.30Update time unavailable
-$492.66Update time unavailable
-$430.02Update time unavailable
-$367.38Update time unavailable
-$304.74Update time unavailable
-$242.10Update time unavailable
-$179.46Update time unavailable
-$116.82Update time unavailable
-$54.18Update time unavailable
$0.00Update time unavailable
$8.46Update time unavailable
$71.10Update time unavailable
$133.74Update time unavailable
$196.38Update time unavailable
$259.02Update time unavailable
$321.66Update time unavailable
$384.30Update time unavailable
$446.94Update time unavailable
$509.58Update time unavailable
$572.22Update time unavailable
$634.86Update time unavailable
$697.50Update time unavailable
$760.14Update time unavailable
$822.78Update time unavailable
$885.42Update time unavailable
$948.06Update time unavailable
$1,010.70Update time unavailable
$1,073.34Update time unavailable
$1,135.98Update time unavailable
$1,198.62Update time unavailable
$1,261.26Update time unavailable
$1,323.90Update time unavailable
$1,386.54Update time unavailable
$1,449.18Update time unavailable
$1,511.82Update time unavailable
$1,574.46Update time unavailable
$1,637.10Update time unavailable
$1,699.74Update time unavailable
$1,762.38Update time unavailable
$1,825.02Update time unavailable
$1,887.66Update time unavailable
$1,950.30Update time unavailable
$2,012.94Update time unavailable
$2,075.58Update time unavailable
$2,138.22Update time unavailable
$2,200.86Update time unavailable
$2,263.50Update time unavailable

Exact contracts and modeled fills · dollars per share. Entry and exit fills are shown to four decimals so the modeled net entry can be checked against each leg.

Side / quantityContractStrike / expiryEntry fillExit fill
BUY × 1VKTX241025C00063000$63.00 call · 2024-10-25$4.1750$1.9625
BUY × 1VKTX241025P00063000$63.00 put · 2024-10-25$4.1500$2.7625

Breakevens: $54.68 / $71.33. Short legs may carry assignment risk; expiry payoff excludes early exercise.

Stored costs: $0.65 / contract / side · slippage 25.0% of spread / fillExample methodology and limitations

3203 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_VKTX_0576bf2cdd49e2e3 · Historical methodology

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