Earnings volatility research
WU · Western Union Company (The) Common Stock
Next verified earnings in 8 days · Oct 22, 2026 · After close (AMC).
- Observed earnings moves:
- 11 History through Oct 14, 2026
- Mean absolute actual move:
- 6.6% 11 observed events · not a forecast
- Actual exceeded priced move:
- 40.0% 4 of 10 paired observations
- Options evidence coverage:
- Unavailable No stored options snapshot
Historical absolute moves are measured outcomes, not predicted returns. Missing implied moves are excluded only from paired comparisons. Inspect events and sources · Inspect stored contracts
No reviewed research is available for WU yet
Coverage and research availability are separate datasets.
A snapshot may be in progress, awaiting review, or blocked by data-quality gates. Published research appears here once it clears review.
Past events · reconstructed
Historical reconstruction for WU
Observed outcomes from 11 earnings events (Oct 25, 2023 – Jul 30, 2026). These events have already been reported · modeled strategy results.
Realized move versus what was implied
Implied move is the pre-event ATM straddle estimate; realized move is the observed post-earnings move.
Implied moves available from Oct 25, 2023; gaps indicate missing quotes.
Updated Oct 14, 2026
Loading graph — the exact table is available below.
Exact data table
WU · Implied versus actual earnings move · full stored dataset, independent of graph range/toggles
| Observation | Realized move (%) | Implied move (%) | Context | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.7443% | 6.4006% | Signed actual -9.7443% · Reconstructed · 18 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 14, 2026 | |
| 5.5815% | 6.25% | Signed actual -5.5815% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 14, 2026 | |
| 2.2077% | 7.2761% | Signed actual -2.2077% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 14, 2026 | |
| 8.3267% | 6.2112% | Signed actual -8.3267% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 14, 2026 | |
| 3.376% | 7.1121% | Signed actual -3.376% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 14, 2026 | |
| 6.0696% | 7.7897% | Signed actual 6.0696% · Reconstructed · 23 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 14, 2026 | |
| 0.6925% | 7.5% | Signed actual 0.6925% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 14, 2026 | |
| 4.1468% | Unavailable | Signed actual -4.1468% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 14, 2026 | |
| 10.1974% | 8.6101% | Signed actual 10.1974% · Reconstructed · 26 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 14, 2026 | |
| 4.6086% | 10.4502% | Signed actual -4.6086% · Reconstructed · 24 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 14, 2026 | |
| 17.2955% | 8.9617% | Signed actual -17.2955% · Reconstructed · 25 IV checkpoints | Updated Oct 14, 2026 |
Compare entry timing
Each column opens a separate trade using that checkpoint’s contracts and quotes. Returns include modeled slippage and commissions.
Daily earnings-window reconstruction: all requested quarters processed. Completed tests may still have missing quotes or non-trading days; processing completion does not mean every trade is available.
1 malformed straddle/strangle example is excluded from comparison because stored leg metadata does not match the named structure. The original stored historical evidence is preserved.
Includes only trades explicitly recorded as passing entry filters. Unknown eligibility and failed-filter runs are excluded; no all-history fallback is applied when none pass. The exit is the earlier of T−1 and one day before the first leg expires.
Average dollar P&L per one-lot structure · profitable runs / total runs. Select a cell to inspect its entry checkpoint.
| Strategy | T−35 | T−34 | T−33 | T−32 | T−31 | T−30 | T−29 | T−28 | T−27 | T−26 | T−25 | T−24 | T−23 | T−22 | T−21 | T−20 | T−19 | T−18 | T−17 | T−16 | T−15 | T−14 | T−13 | T−12 | T−11 | T−10 | T−9 | T−8 | T−7 | T−6 | T−5 | T−4 | T−3 | T−2 | T−1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Call Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Bull Put Spread | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| Calendar | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| Iron Condor | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Long Straddle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available | |
| Long Strangle | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Short StraddleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
| Short StrangleResearch only · Unlimited upside risk | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | No eligible runs | Not available |
Requested entry tests: T−35, T−34, T−33, T−32, T−31, T−30, T−29, T−28, T−27, T−26, T−25, T−24, T−23, T−22, T−21, T−20, T−19, T−18, T−17, T−16, T−15, T−14, T−13, T−12, T−11, T−10, T−9, T−8, T−7, T−6, T−5, T−4, T−3, T−2, T−1. Untested columns require a new historical reconstruction. Small samples are descriptive evidence. Columns can cover different earnings events; inspect event dates before comparing. The highest average across different samples does not establish the best entry day. New daily reconstructions use exact calendar dates; weekends, holidays and missing quotes remain unavailable. Older records may use a prior session; each trade shows its actual dates.
T−14 entry details
No stored results for this entry, exit rule and entry sample. Volatility observations alone do not establish trade performance.
37 unavailable tests at T−14
- WU_2023-10-25 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2023-10-25 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2023-10-25 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2024-02-06 · Calendar · no constructible legs
- WU_2024-02-06 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2024-02-06 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2024-02-06 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2024-04-24 · Calendar · no constructible legs
- WU_2024-04-24 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2024-04-24 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2024-07-30 · Calendar · no constructible legs
- WU_2024-07-30 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2024-07-30 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2024-07-30 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2024-10-23 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2024-10-23 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2024-10-23 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2025-02-04 · Calendar · no constructible legs
- WU_2025-04-23 · Calendar · no constructible legs
- WU_2025-04-23 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2025-04-23 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2025-04-23 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2025-07-28 · Calendar · no constructible legs
- WU_2025-07-28 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2025-07-28 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2025-07-28 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2025-10-23 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2025-10-23 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2025-10-23 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2026-04-24 · Calendar · no constructible legs
- WU_2026-04-24 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2026-04-24 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2026-04-24 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2026-07-30 · Calendar · missing exit trading session
- WU_2026-07-30 · Iron Condor · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2026-07-30 · Bull Put Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
- WU_2026-07-30 · Bear Call Spread · missing exact leg quotes or unbounded capital
2980 unavailable observations / tests · Record hist_WU_cddc8838a27dd2db · Historical methodology
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